Game 3 prediction @ Tennessee
Posted 09-16-2010 at 10:58 AM by slayerxing
Link to UT depth chart: http://tennessee.rivals.com/cdepthtext.asp
I think there are two big story lines going into this game:
1. Can UT overcome depth and inexperience and play a complete game against a top tier team?
2. How will UFs offense look in their first SEC game after struggling for most of the first two games of 2010?
For the UT vs UF game, I think the answer to #1 and the answer to #2 are closely related. I say that because I think Florida's offense will help keep UT in the game for a while.
Some stats for you:
Up until the end of the 2nd quarter (6 minutes to go), Oregon had 24 plays for 78 yards and 3 points against Tennessee. And we can all sit here now and agree that Oregon has one of the best offenses in the country. The game opened up on two plays by Oregon.
1. With about 3 minutes to go in the 2nd Qtr, Oregon hit TE Brandon Williams for a 29 yard gain on 2nd and 10. It was Oregon's longest pass to that point, and it set up a field goal.
2. With about 1 minute to go in the 2nd Qtr, Oregon hit TE D. Paulson for a 27 yard TD pass on a similar route, beating the LB.
Those two plays loosened up the Tennessee defense, and then the whole house of cards came crashing down on that beautiful 72 yard run by James in the 2nd half.
Another factor that hurt Tennessee in that game was that the offense stopped moving the ball effectively. One of the keys to UTs season is keeping their defense off the field as much as possible because depth is such an issue. Once UT stopped moving the ball effectively, Oregon was able to get in rhythm and it was good night sweetheart. Tennessee couldn't move the ball regularly without the big play. They had 4 runs over 20 yards in the first half. That kept them in it.
So UF has to do three things to win:
1. Limit UTs big plays on the ground. - easier said than done. That OL is huge and talented. The only weakness is experience and depth.
2. Hit a couple big pass plays to keep UT honest on defense. - UT is especially weak it seems, over the middle of the field and with their LBs in pass coverage.
3. DON'T TURN THE BALL OVER - The early fumble by Oregon on their first KOR set them behind big time, and gave UT so much momentum.
I think UF will be fine with #1, but I worry, with a first time offense on the road, if they will manage #2 and #3 successfully.
My prediction:
UF comes out extremely conservative and a bit shaky to start the game. They struggle moving the ball with the run and short passes against a loaded box. UT is jacked also. UT scores a FG on a short field, and UF doesn't do much of anything all quarter offensively.
1st Q - UF 0 - UT 3
UF starts to settle in a bit, but the offense is still very disjointed. They manage to move into long FG range, but Sturgis misses. Tennessee capitalizes on UFs failure and gets another FG, but a nice KOR by demps sets UF up on a short field and UF scores a TD.
Half time - UF 7 - UT 6
Florida is a bit more successful in the 3rd quarter, and although their opening drive fails, the defense gives them a turnover and the UF offense scores a TD on a short field. The Tennessee offense is really bogged down now, and can't do much. The teams exchange punts, and then Florida puts together their best drive so far and scores another TD.
3rd Q - UF 21 - UT 6
UF is rolling now, and the UT defense is gassed. The UF OL is opening big holes and the RBs are getting yards in chunks. The only problem is, UF fumbles. UT scores after the turnover and gets two points to make it a game in the 4th quarter. UF is unable to answer, but UTs offense turns the ball over for at least the 2nd time, and UF is able to score after the turnover to ice the game.
Final - UF 28 - UT 14
I think people might really be unhappy with the offense after this game, but I think the criticism will be unfair. I think UF will end up with near 400 yards of offense, with most of that coming on the ground (maybe about 225) and will have played a very conservative game plan with a very young team on the road in the SEC.
The biggest concerns going forward will be:
1. The offenses inability to sustain drives.
2. The slow starts on offense in the first half.
I think there are two big story lines going into this game:
1. Can UT overcome depth and inexperience and play a complete game against a top tier team?
2. How will UFs offense look in their first SEC game after struggling for most of the first two games of 2010?
For the UT vs UF game, I think the answer to #1 and the answer to #2 are closely related. I say that because I think Florida's offense will help keep UT in the game for a while.
Some stats for you:
Up until the end of the 2nd quarter (6 minutes to go), Oregon had 24 plays for 78 yards and 3 points against Tennessee. And we can all sit here now and agree that Oregon has one of the best offenses in the country. The game opened up on two plays by Oregon.
1. With about 3 minutes to go in the 2nd Qtr, Oregon hit TE Brandon Williams for a 29 yard gain on 2nd and 10. It was Oregon's longest pass to that point, and it set up a field goal.
2. With about 1 minute to go in the 2nd Qtr, Oregon hit TE D. Paulson for a 27 yard TD pass on a similar route, beating the LB.
Those two plays loosened up the Tennessee defense, and then the whole house of cards came crashing down on that beautiful 72 yard run by James in the 2nd half.
Another factor that hurt Tennessee in that game was that the offense stopped moving the ball effectively. One of the keys to UTs season is keeping their defense off the field as much as possible because depth is such an issue. Once UT stopped moving the ball effectively, Oregon was able to get in rhythm and it was good night sweetheart. Tennessee couldn't move the ball regularly without the big play. They had 4 runs over 20 yards in the first half. That kept them in it.
So UF has to do three things to win:
1. Limit UTs big plays on the ground. - easier said than done. That OL is huge and talented. The only weakness is experience and depth.
2. Hit a couple big pass plays to keep UT honest on defense. - UT is especially weak it seems, over the middle of the field and with their LBs in pass coverage.
3. DON'T TURN THE BALL OVER - The early fumble by Oregon on their first KOR set them behind big time, and gave UT so much momentum.
I think UF will be fine with #1, but I worry, with a first time offense on the road, if they will manage #2 and #3 successfully.
My prediction:
UF comes out extremely conservative and a bit shaky to start the game. They struggle moving the ball with the run and short passes against a loaded box. UT is jacked also. UT scores a FG on a short field, and UF doesn't do much of anything all quarter offensively.
1st Q - UF 0 - UT 3
UF starts to settle in a bit, but the offense is still very disjointed. They manage to move into long FG range, but Sturgis misses. Tennessee capitalizes on UFs failure and gets another FG, but a nice KOR by demps sets UF up on a short field and UF scores a TD.
Half time - UF 7 - UT 6
Florida is a bit more successful in the 3rd quarter, and although their opening drive fails, the defense gives them a turnover and the UF offense scores a TD on a short field. The Tennessee offense is really bogged down now, and can't do much. The teams exchange punts, and then Florida puts together their best drive so far and scores another TD.
3rd Q - UF 21 - UT 6
UF is rolling now, and the UT defense is gassed. The UF OL is opening big holes and the RBs are getting yards in chunks. The only problem is, UF fumbles. UT scores after the turnover and gets two points to make it a game in the 4th quarter. UF is unable to answer, but UTs offense turns the ball over for at least the 2nd time, and UF is able to score after the turnover to ice the game.
Final - UF 28 - UT 14
I think people might really be unhappy with the offense after this game, but I think the criticism will be unfair. I think UF will end up with near 400 yards of offense, with most of that coming on the ground (maybe about 225) and will have played a very conservative game plan with a very young team on the road in the SEC.
The biggest concerns going forward will be:
1. The offenses inability to sustain drives.
2. The slow starts on offense in the first half.
Total Comments 4
Comments
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Nice job, slayer. Given our history of playing very conservatively against teams that don't have the offense to beat us, I think that is a very reasonable prediction.
But I'd like to see JB check to mismatches against the LBs and Safeties early, when UT is playing us tight against the run, which they will almost certainly do. Hines and Reed could both have big games and open things up for the run, as happened with Oregon.
Question... if JB doesn't do this, will it be on him for not recognizing, or the coaches telling him just to run the plays they call? We won't know, as fans. And if this plays out like this, the blame will fall on Addazio again - rightly or wrongly.
The only other thing I'd add is that it might be wise for us to get Gillislee more carries early, and then more to Demps when the Vols start to wear down. We should get some push on the line against UT, with our weight advantage - if the RB can fight forward after contact for another couple yards we could have 4 to 5 yard gains instead of 2 yard gains, and be in much better shape to sustain drives. I love Demps but he just doesn't beat initial contact anywhere near as often as Gillislee seems to.
All in all, I think it is most likely we get a W, which is the main thing Meyer is trying to assure. But fans and team members could be disappointed in the offense again. From a confidence perspective, and from an ability to execute in big games like Bama, I think it is important we open up enough of the offense to keep defenses from cheating too heavily, and let the offense get into some game flow. If we don't do this, we could suffer from unnecessary turnovers, by allowing defenses to jump routes or force fumbles that we wouldn't otherwise suffer if the defense has to respect more of the field, and more options off our base sets and plays.Posted 09-16-2010 at 11:29 AM by OaktownGator 
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I think JB will have a pretty solid game. I'll say maybe 13-24 for 150 yards and 2 TD. It just won't look very impressive because UF won't throw it around a lot.
I'm seeing less than 30 throws and more than 40 rushes. So the play calling again will be called into question.Posted 09-16-2010 at 12:45 PM by slayerxing
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I think Florida has found its rythymn and has a faster start then we have in the last two games. Our Oline should be able to protect JB and open holes for the runing backs. We will also pick up a turnover or two giving us the short field and easy scores. Our D will be nasty and fast taking their running game away and forcing Simms to try and take his team on his back.UT will be ready to play but talent,depth and coaching bring this one home 35-10
Posted 09-16-2010 at 02:08 PM by ofmgator 
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I think we start out consrvatively also to get settled in. I would like to see some option plays out of the wildcat. Possibly a pass off the option using our second qb. I think we work on their middle with Hines in the slot. If we have no to's, I think we wear them down in the second half. Hope we don't stay overly conservative, but I think we can beat them with our quality athletes. 31-17
Posted 09-16-2010 at 11:02 PM by gator126
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