After Saturday's games, how many SEC teams get in

[oneatatime]

Florida and Missouri are in.

Everybody else will need something special.

Mississippi's loss was unbelievable. The others were not surprising on the road, but still I suspect, someone will need to make the SEC final to secure a bid

[gatorfansrule]

Missouri is not a lock yet IMO. They still have Arkansas and @Tennessee left to play. ESPN Bubble Watch is not updated yet, but here's what they have: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bubblewatch

[gatordavisl]

UF, MZ, Ark. Others need to do some work

[ApexNC]

And Tennessee loses to UGa....that'll do it for them too

[ArtVandelay]

I didn't understand how Ole Miss was still in before today. Surely they are out now and I don't see them getting back in.

[REM08]

Not a chance Arkansas is in without more work. They haven't even been listed as one of the teams "just" left out of the tourney in the past week that I've seen.

UF and Missouri are in. Other teams need work.

Don't know about UT or Ole Miss, but I think UK needs 2 more wins to be in unless other bubble teams just flop.

[ArtVandelay]

Not sure why people think Arky is in right now...

They beat us and Mizzou and Oklahoma. They still have work to do. Another win vs Mizzou and avoid a loss vs aTm and first game loss in SEC and they would probably be in.

[themistocles]

Yeah, it would really be WEIRD if the SEC had one team in the 64, and that team were a #1 or #2 seed wouldn't it? This is certainly possible now that the team is almost complete again,

We can, however, hope that as many as 4 teams make it, although today really hurt a lot of teams that are on or near the bubble.

[akaGatorhoops]

Fwiw, lunardi has 3 sec teams in the first 4 out.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/77902/bracket-update-hoyas-replace-canes

[gatorfansrule]

Fwiw, lunardi has 3 sec teams in the first 4 out.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/77902/bracket-update-hoyas-replace-canes

And 4 of the first 8 out. Amazing.

[RD_gator]

According to ESPN bubble watch, the SEC has the following bubble teams.
Last 4 out: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama.
Ole Miss is in next four out.

Here are some key SEC regular season games left that will have an impact on which SEC teams will make it or not:

Alabama @ Ole Miss
Arkansas @ Missouri
Tennessee vs Missouri
Florida @ Kentucky



For the SEC tourney projections based on this week's standings http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-basketball/190686-sec-tournament-bracket-projection.html, the SEC semifinals could be the following:

#1 Florida vs #4 Mississippi/#5 Missouri

#2 Alabama/ #7 Tennessee vs #3 Kentucky/ #6 Arkansas

In my opinion, should Florida advance to the SEC finals, the Gators will have their hardest game in their semifinal where a potential third show down between Missouri & UF could occur! Some of these SEC bubble teams can still help each other out by picking up key wins. However, some of these bubble teams can also knock each other out, too!

[GatorPlanet]

I have a feeling UF, Mizzou, and UK are the only ones that will get in, and UK is not there yet.

[gatorfansrule]

If Mizzou happens to loss to Arkansas and Tennessee do you still think they get in or would it depend on what they did in the SEC tournament too?

[RD_gator]

If Mizzou happens to loss to Arkansas and Tennessee do you still think they get in or would it depend on what they did in the SEC tournament too?


Missouri should get in; they have good victories over Illinois, VCU, Florida & others!
That Missouri-Arkansas game should be a good grudge match based on their previous game. Tennessee is not winning any opposing fans' approval either as the vols play a very thuggish style of basketball!

[akaGatorhoops]

I actually like the vols chances. I think they set up well with a home game versus mizzou.

[xenythx]

Florida is the lock. Missouri has enough quality wins to be in.

Ole Miss and Alabama are out because they have really bad losses and barely any quality wins.

UT, Arkansas, and UK are FIRMLY on the bubble. If any of them can win out and get to at least the SEC tournament championship game, then they're in.

[InstiGATOR1]

I doubt UK gets in. They will lose at UGa this week. They might beat UF. They will fold quickly in the SEC tourney.

[bposs]

I doubt UK gets in. They will lose at UGa this week. They might beat UF. They will fold quickly in the SEC tourney.

Did we wrap up SEC reg season championship today ?

[gatorfansrule]

We have clinched a share of the title. If we beat Vandy on Wednesday we wrap it up.

[RD_gator]

I have a feeling UF, Mizzou, and UK are the only ones that will get in, and UK is not there yet.

I think Tennessee has a better chance of making it to the NCAAs than Kentucky.
Tennessee hosts Missouri & has an excellent chance for that win at their home.
On the other hand, Kentucky has a harder game than UT as the wildcats ncaa hopes rest on defeating the tougher Gators. Additionally when looking at the SEC tourney projections as they stand now (see my post above), UK most likely faces an Arkansas team who seems to have the wildcats' number; UT faces Alabama which is any ones game. In the next couple of weeks, this will be an interesting end to the SEC season!

[GolphinGator]

Did we wrap up SEC reg season championship today ?

I think we have at least a share. If and when we beat Vandy Wednesday then Florida will be the regular season champion.

[GatorsGators]

Florida and Missouri are in.

Everybody else will need something special.

Mississippi's loss was unbelievable. The others were not surprising on the road, but still I suspect, someone will need to make the SEC final to secure a bidThree

Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee/Kentucky/Alabama. Probably Kentucky because they're Kentucky. Tennessee has the best resume at this point.

Arkansas honestly has no chance. Same with Ole Miss after today.

[gatordavisl]

I know Ark is 18-11 and has an rpi in the80s. I still think they get in, esp. with wins against UF and UK.

[gtr2x]

Gators are in, everybody else has work to do. Don't get all the love for Mizzou but they prob sneak in along with 2 others. Think SEC gets 4 in. Still think if bama wins out and pick up a couple in the tourney they make it along with UT. Hard to overlook That 30 pt win over UK and win over UF.

[gatorbogey]

i think it's Florida and Missouri and whoever wins the SEC-T if it isn't the gators or missouri tigers.

if the field were made today, SEC only gets 2 into the dance.

[GatorPlanet]

The Florida game is huge for UK.

[rtgator]

I doubt UK gets in. They will lose at UGa this week. They might beat UF. They will fold quickly in the SEC tourney.

UK has a huge edge over other bubble teams due to ticket sales and TV ratings.

They'll get in unless they lose to Georgia and UF and then bomb in the SEC tourney.

[REM08]

UK has a huge edge over other bubble teams due to ticket sales and TV ratings.

They'll get in unless they lose to Georgia and UF and then bomb in the SEC tourney.

According to media that attended the recent media mock NCAA selection event, the selection committee makes no allowances for this. We all have to decide whether or not we believe this, but the several media I saw write on the event were very surprised and very convinced.

[GothamGator]

i think it's Florida and Missouri and whoever wins the SEC-T if it isn't the gators or missouri tigers.

if the field were made today, SEC only gets 2 into the dance.

What's interesting is that based on the current SEC standings, Missouri would be seeded fifth, and therefore set to meet Florida in the semi-finals should they advance that far. The other half would be stuffed with the bubble teams, who can make a run to the finals and make a case for the committee.

Ultimately, one of the bubble teams is going to get hot to close the season and get into the dance, possibly even two (but not likely). It's just hard to guess who that's going to be.

[lean_gator]

According to ESPN bubble watch, the SEC has the following bubble teams.
Last 4 out: Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama.
Ole Miss is in next four out.

Here are some key SEC regular season games left that will have an impact on which SEC teams will make it or not:

Alabama @ Ole Miss
Arkansas @ Missouri
Tennessee vs Missouri
Florida @ Kentucky



For the SEC tourney projections based on this week's standings http://www.volnation.com/forum/tennessee-vols-basketball/190686-sec-tournament-bracket-projection.html, the SEC semifinals could be the following:

#1 Florida vs #4 Mississippi/#5 Missouri

#2 Alabama/ #7 Tennessee vs #3 Kentucky/ #6 Arkansas

In my opinion, should Florida advance to the SEC finals, the Gators will have their hardest game in their semifinal where a potential third show down between Missouri & UF could occur! Some of these SEC bubble teams can still help each other out by picking up key wins. However, some of these bubble teams can also knock each other out, too!

Greatly disagree. Playing a desperate Tennessee team in the finals will be 100x tougher than playing Mizzou in the semifinals. How many times does Tennessee have to beat us for people to realize that we have a real hard time matching up with them?

[gatordavisl]

Everyone knows the SEC is weak this year. If our 14-team league earns fewer than four bids, that would be a major disappointment, weak conference or not. Heck, getting just four would be an indictment on the league. Palm's latest bracket (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology) has six bids for the Big Ten. He also has Tennessee in, though. Depending on how the field performs down the stretch, we might get UF, MZ, Ark, UK, UT. It is possible (though improbable).

We have six teams in the top 64 of the rpi (http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html), but several are low. UK is 50, UT is 53, and Bama is 63.

[GatorPlanet]

According to media that attended the recent media mock NCAA selection event, the selection committee makes no allowances for this. We all have to decide whether or not we believe this, but the several media I saw write on the event were very surprised and very convinced.

The Selection Committee can't win. If they invite UK, everyone will claim that bias is the reason. If they don't invite UK, everyone (or at least Big Blue) will claim that bias is the reason.

[GatorPlanet]

RPI, BPI, SOS and all that stuff are compiled over a full season, as they should be. However, the Selection Committee also looks realistically at how a team is performing at the close of the season. Did a team with a so-so record just get a key player back and go on a 5-game tear? Did a bubble team with a better record go into a skid? Those things figure into it. Teams evolve, sometimes dramatically, over the course of a season, and sometimes over the course of a couple of weeks.

[REM08]

The Selection Committee can't win. If they invite UK, everyone will claim that bias is the reason. If they don't invite UK, everyone (or at least Big Blue) will claim that bias is the reason.

Yeah I agree. My take is if you're on the bubble you didn't do enough during the year to complain if you're left out. Occasionally I feel bad for some mediocre school who gets shunned, but not schools that should be playing for more.

[VolsFan07]

Missouri should get in; they have good victories over Illinois, VCU, Florida & others!
That Missouri-Arkansas game should be a good grudge match based on their previous game. Tennessee is not winning any opposing fans' approval either as the vols play a very thuggish style of basketball!

Oh please.

[ldgator]

Id love to crush KY and help keep them out of the tournament. It'd break their hearts! They literally have nothing else to look forward to.

[themistocles]

Regarding how well the Gators match up with Tennessee, I think that is an utter unknown given that when the Gators played them in Knoxville, 25% of the key players played nothing, and, at the end, when the short-handed and therefore tired Gators might have made a run, Prather was injured.

Additionally, Knoxville is much like Nashville, Starkville and Fayetteville regarding visiting teams managing victories. That recent game was not even a roughly reasonable measuring stick for how UF and UT match up.

Regarding Bubble Teams - Missou looks to have the toughest row to hoe.

I haven't a clue about Kentucky right now. One of the hardest thing for young teams to do is exhibit consistency, and they have certainly been guilty of inconsistency this year. If Yeguete and Frazier get up to full steam by that game, which could well be true, Ky's chances of victory are not great, but then, you never know.

Tennessee might possibly get in, and they have only a few "bad" losses on their record, with perhaps the worst being their sweep by 14-15 Georgia. Ole Miss also swept them, but Ole Miss is not a "below average team. All of their Non-Conference losses were to decent teams.

Honestly, I didn't understand how they avoided being selected last year, and I think perhaps the committee has something of a bias against UT, although that may be unfounded. I really think they have a decent chance of getting in, and the remaining schedule is not bad, although they will likely have to play 4 games in the SEC tournament, which is not an advantage. They can't make the top 4 unless they win out, and both Missou & Ole Miss lose out (which could happen, Ole Miss has the head-to-head advantage in a tie having a sweep of UT), and Arky looses another game, they are unlikely to be in the top 4.


As usual, an interesting season, albeit not nearly as interesting as in the Big 10, the Big 12, the Big East and the Pac 12. More like the ACC or Conference USA with one dominant or somewhat dominant team.

[gatorbogey]

if UK beats us, they get in. provided they don't stumble elsewhere. tenn really did have a golden opportunity to play their way in after beating us - but they almost needed to be flawless the rest of the way.

UK's metrics - like sagarin, etc - are still solid. apparently the committee collectively doesn't look at that stuff, but individually, they still may do. individually they still may look at tix sales etc. [has to play a role...i know it would influence me, if i had to choose between two programs that were equal in most other parameters to get into the tourney. i think i'd pick UK for the sales and the fact they are the defending nat'l champs. i'd be looking to get them into the tourney].

teams that can play themselves in w/ a solid finish and deep run in the SEC-T: UK, Bama, ole miss, Ark, maybe Tenn (probably has to win the SEC-T....and the way they played us: they can)

[InstiGATOR1]

Well liverpi.com:

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/SEC.html

has the following projected regular season RPIs for SEC bubble teams:

UMo: 34.9, so even if they lose at UTn, they are in.

UK: 47.3, but that does not count the UGa loss. So they must win at UGa and against UF to get to that kind of RPI and be in for sure. If they split they will be about 52.9 in the RPI and right on the bubble.

UMs: If they can beat UAL at home and win at LSU, they will be around 55. That will put them right on the bubble with UK.

UTn: If they can win at AU and beat UMo at home they too will be right around 55 in the RPI.

UAL: If they can sweep at UMs and UGa at home, they will come in with an RPI of around 58.

I think it is hard to make a case for UAR or any other SEC bubble team.

[tommyuf21]

UK gets an advantage because of their schedule strength. They would really help their cause if they win out and get at least one victory in the SEC tourney.

I think the committee will look for legitimate reasons to give them a bid as opposed to leaving them out. Their fan base, the story lines, etc are all aspects that enhance the profile of the tournament.

[rserina]

I think Mizzou is in, especially given the absence of Bowers earlier in the year. That will receive some consideration, even if it isn't necessarily supposed to.

Kentucky likely has to beat us, which is annoying. That would be a huge win for them.

[GatorsGators]

UK gets an advantage because of their schedule strength. They would really help their cause if they win out and get at least one victory in the SEC tourney.Tennessee has a better SOS than Kentucky.

[UF67ee]

Tennessee will be in, and I hate playing them again. Add UK, Mizzu,us and that's it.

[tommyuf21]

I'm think UF and Missouri are it, unless someone else wins the SEC tourney.

Too many chances for the bubble teams to lose more games. Missouri is going to knock the Vols out over the weekend. If Bama loses to Arky, they're done. Missouri could very well do in Ole Miss tomorrow night too.

UK has to win its last two and then win a game in the SEC tourney. I think they have the best chance of the bubble bunch.

[REM08]

I'm think UF and Missouri are it, unless someone else wins the SEC tourney.

Too many chances for the bubble teams to lose more games. Missouri is going to knock the Vols out over the weekend. If Bama loses to Arky, they're done. Missouri could very well do in Ole Miss tomorrow night too.

UK has to win its last two and then win a game in the SEC tourney. I think they have the best chance of the bubble bunch.

I think what you have to keep in mind is that, lately at least, the bubble teams have all been shooting themselves in the foot.

I'm not ultra optimistic for Kentucky, but I am confident they're in with a win over Georgia (not confident about this though), a lost to Florida, and then a win in the SEC tourney.

I don't think Kentucky's hopes ride on a Florida win, although that would get them in.

[InstiGATOR1]

I'm think UF and Missouri are it, unless someone else wins the SEC tourney.

Too many chances for the bubble teams to lose more games. Missouri is going to knock the Vols out over the weekend. If Bama loses to Arky, they're done. Missouri could very well do in Ole Miss tomorrow night too.

UK has to win its last two and then win a game in the SEC tourney. I think they have the best chance of the bubble bunch.

I think UF and UMo are in. I still think three other teams have a shot and btw you have some of the schedules mixed up:

1. UK needs to beat UGa in Athens and UF and I doubt they do.

2. UMs may have the best shot as they could beat UAL at home and then if they beat LSU on the road they have canceled out the loss at Miss St.

3. UTn also has a better shot than UK. They need to win at AU midweek and then beat UMo at home. I don't see why you would think that UMo will beat anyone decent on the road?

[REM08]

I think UF and UMo are in. I still think three other teams have a shot and btw you have some of the schedules mixed up:

1. UK needs to beat UGa in Athens and UF and I doubt they do.

2. UMs may have the best shot as they could beat UAL at home and then if they beat LSU on the road they have canceled out the loss at Miss St.

3. UTn also has a better shot than UK. They need to win at AU midweek and then beat UMo at home. I don't see why you would think that UMo will beat anyone decent on the road?

Again, points 2 and 3 cannot be correct because they're based on a flawed point number 1. UK can get in without beating Florida. Most bracket guys have stated this and most have UK in right now. A win at UGA, which isn't a given, will give UK enough breathing room that a loss to a top 10 team won't drop them out so far that one win in the tournament won't have them back in. I'm not saying its an easy path for UK, but disagree completely with anyone saying UK needs to beat Florida. As of now, they don't.

[jagervol01]

I'm think UF and Missouri are it, unless someone else wins the SEC tourney.

Too many chances for the bubble teams to lose more games. Missouri is going to knock the Vols out over the weekend. If Bama loses to Arky, they're done. Missouri could very well do in Ole Miss tomorrow night too.

UK has to win its last two and then win a game in the SEC tourney. I think they have the best chance of the bubble bunch.
Tennessee will beat Missouri at home on Senior Day with this much at stake and it will not be close. They should win at Auburn as well. They should be one of the last 4 in.

[luciaboy]

four, just as many as the all-powerful acc

[RealGatorFan]

Even with a full healthy team we lost all of the important road matchups this year. Every one of them. Even Alabama lead in the 2nd half at home. I don't understand how anyone could give us the likelyhood of a win at Rupp when we've shown we haven't won on the road yet against decent competition.

If Kentucky beats Georgia, Rupp will be packed since you know they need that win more than we do.

[tommyuf21]

Tennessee will beat Missouri at home on Senior Day with this much at stake and it will not be close. They should win at Auburn as well. They should be one of the last 4 in.

I think Missouri matches up with Tennessee much better than UF did (at less than full strength). Pressey will create a lot of problems and Bowers is much more active and a better offensive threat down low than Young was.

I think Tennessee blew their chance at the tourney when they lost to the Poodles. Auburn is terrible, so I think they can win that one. Missouri beats them in Knoxville and I'm not convinced they get a win in the SEC tourney.

I was more impressed with last year's UT team with Maymon and Stokes, than this year's team which is really a one man show (McRae).

[jagervol01]

I think Missouri matches up with Tennessee much better than UF did (at less than full strength). Pressey will create a lot of problems and Bowers is much more active and a better offensive threat down low than Young was.

I think Tennessee blew their chance at the tourney when they lost to the Poodles. Auburn is terrible, so I think they can win that one. Missouri beats them in Knoxville and I'm not convinced they get a win in the SEC tourney.

I was more impressed with last year's UT team with Maymon and Stokes, than this year's team which is really a one man show (McRae).
We will see what happens this weekend but I don't see how you can accurately evaluate matchups between teams that have literally never played. Mizzou has not been impressive away from home and Tenn will have more at stake. As for the SEC tourney, I would at least wait for the draw to become clear before making picks.

[tommyuf21]

We will see what happens this weekend but I don't see how you can accurately evaluate matchups between teams that have literally never played. Mizzou has not been impressive away from home and Tenn will have more at stake. As for the SEC tourney, I would at least wait for the draw to become clear before making picks.

I see your point and certainly don't want to argue too much.

I'm just not sold on this UT team as a NCAA tourney team. I think losing at UGA really drove that point home to me. I watched them a lot early in the year and think they have a lot of problems, especially when it comes to finding consistent production from anyone other than McRae. Golden, Hall, McBee and even Stokes are unreliable and are capable of having terrible and unproductive games.

They caught us at our most vulnerable point and even with everything going for them, barely held on.

Really to be fair though, they are better than some of the other teams competing for bids, but I really think that outside of UK (reputation) and UF and Missouri, noone else in the SEC is getting in. And UK is on very shaky ground. I'm predicting two bids for the SEC and there is going to be much wailing and gnashing of teeth when it happens from everyone on this board. However, not much can be said when the SEC is as bad as it is this season.

[tommyuf21]

Arky has played themselves out of it now. It looks like Bama is going to do themselves in tonight too.

I really would like to see at least 4 teams from the league get bids, as long as it is not at our expense. I just don't see it happening.

[tegator80]

Middle of the first half, Bama is getting beat pretty badly against Old Miss. If this continues I don't see them making it unless they win the tourney.

[tommyuf21]

Middle of the first half, Bama is getting beat pretty badly against Old Miss. If this continues I don't see them making it unless they win the tourney.

Agreed. At this point, the only team in the league that looks like it can win three games in a row is us.

[VolsFan07]

Agreed. At this point, the only team in the league that looks like it can win three games in a row is us.

The loss to UGA ended a six game SEC win strike that included wins against UK and UF. I think the Vols can have a chance to go on another run if we can get Trae Golden playing like he did during that streak. Stokes needs to play more consistently as well.

[tommyuf21]

What is the issue with Golden? I know he has had a couple of big games, but every time I've seen him, he's played pretty bad. I've seen him play at least 3X when he's turned the ball over at least 5 times. At least two games, I don't think he even hit one field goal.

The Poodles held him to 1-10. I just don't know how a junior who has logged a lot of minutes can be so inconsistent. It seems like his defender just has to sit on his right hand and wait for the turnover or missed shot.

I can see Pressey having his way with Golden on Saturday.

[VolsFan07]

What is the issue with Golden? I know he has had a couple of big games, but every time I've seen him, he's played pretty bad. I've seen him play at least 3X when he's turned the ball over at least 5 times. At least two games, I don't think he even hit one field goal.

The Poodles held him to 1-10. I just don't know how a junior who has logged a lot of minutes can be so inconsistent. It seems like his defender just has to sit on his right hand and wait for the turnover or missed shot.

I can see Pressey having his way with Golden on Saturday.

The only thing I could guess is his mental preparation. And you are absolutely right. Some games he is outstanding, and others it almost appears he's playing for the other team. He was terrible against the Dawgs, had 4 fouls with more than 12 minutes remaining. I remember two of them were just completely unnecessary hand check fouls around half court.

[gtr2x]

The Poodles held him to 1-10. I just don't know how a junior who has logged a lot of minutes can be so inconsistent. It seems like his defender just has to sit on his right hand and wait for the turnover or missed shot.

I can see Pressey having his way with Golden on Saturday.

Pressey is a better talent, but he hasnt been all that much different. Makes a jaw dropping pass one minute, turns it over the next.