#1 seed watch

[xenythx]

#4 Michigan State about to lose on the road to #19 Ohio State. Should help us a bit.

[GatorSean]

Hate to see osu win at anything, but I guess this is acceptable.

[Jaggator]

As good as Michigan State is, they dropped 2 games in a row this week. The lost to both Indiana and Ohio State. Goes to show you how strong the Big 10 is.

[iam4uf]

Narrowed the gap between among the top three & actually hurt our RPI relative to theirs. Both UF & Miami need to win out to get a #1 seed.

1 Duke - 0.6894
2 Miami FL - 0.6734
3 New Mexico - 0.6725
4 Florida - 0.6560

[swampgas44]

Narrowed the gap between among the top three & actually hurt our RPI relative to theirs. Both UF & Miami need to win out to get a #1 seed.

1 Duke - 0.6894
2 Miami FL - 0.6734
3 New Mexico - 0.6725
4 Florida - 0.6560

New Mexico is not going to be a #1 seed. A high 3 or a low 2 most likely.

[UFSECKINGS]

As good as Michigan State is, they dropped 2 games in a row this week. The lost to both Indiana and Ohio State. Goes to show you how strong the Big 10 is.

Seth Davis has them at #3 on his ballot this week... even after two losses. I kid you not.

[swampgas44]

Seth Davis has them at #3 on his ballot this week... even after two losses. I kid you not.

That CBS bunch always has Florida slightly lower rated than most.

[gatordavisl]

I don't want to see Izzo's bunch in the the tourney, regardless of seed. If we were able to defeat them, it would exercise a tourney demon of sorts, but it would be tough for us (as fans) to go into that game with confidence.

[rserina]

New Mexico is not going to be a #1 seed. A high 3 or a low 2 most likely.
Agreed. I think the influence of the RPI is often overstated. Pretty interesting interview with the committee chair this year from the WSJ, including:

Most of the smartest analysts of college basketball prefer metrics other than the RPI. If the committee considers the RPI one of the most reliable systems, why do so few others use it?

I think part of that is certain folks gravitate toward other ranking systems because of particular features they may prefer that may not be present in the RPI. Some people like margin of victory or different weighting on style of play.

I use a combination of different systems when I look at teams and also weigh that with my own observations. I want to see a team play and get a sense of who they are and how they look.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2013/02/20/the-ncaa-tournament-and-the-rpi/

[rserina]

I don't want to see Izzo's bunch in the the tourney, regardless of seed. If we were able to defeat them, it would exercise a tourney demon of sorts, but it would be tough for us (as fans) to go into that game with confidence.
Well, we beat them the last time we faced them on a neutral court, and that was with a 10-seed coming off a NIT berth going against a second ranked team that ended up in then Final Four. Not sure I am that worried about them. Great coach, solid program, very competitive team, but in no way better than us. Would be a great game, actually, especially with Wilbekin on Appling.

[GatorHoya]

Getting a #1 seed is going to be an uphill battle at this point.

Indiana has a #1 seed locked in, and I think it is more likely than not that the Big10 will get a second #1 seed in whichever team wins the Michigan-Mich State matchup on March 3. The winner of that game would have to be upset at least once in the regular season, or have an early conference tournament exit in order to not get a #1 IMO.

As much as I hate Duke, I think they will beat Miami easily March 2nd. Even if they lose on the road to a desperate UNC team on March 9, they will probably have the resume for a #1. Ryan Kelly is coming back and the committee loves to evaluate teams based on their roster going into the tournament, which should give them a boost.

Gonzaga's bid for a #1 will generate a lot of controversy among the talking heads in the coming weeks. I don't expect BYU to upset them, and they should coast to a 30+ win season. It will be interesting whether enough committee members are philosophically opposed to giving them a #1 given their weak conference opposition. They did have some nice wins against the Big12 back in December, which in IMO will be just enough to get them the #1 as long as they don't lay an egg in the next 2 weeks.

Those would be the 1s right now. Kansas, Florida, and Georgetown are the main contenders to sneak in. (I think Miami will lose at least twice more this season).

Unfortunately, even if one of the #1 seeds falters, I just don't know if we enough opportunities for quality wins. Just have to take care of whats left on our schedule, but the Mizz loss was a big missed opportunity.

All of that said, I think a #1 and a #2 are essentially the same thing, and I would rather be a 2 in DC or Dallas against Michigan or Duke than be a #1 routed through California. Just pray to god we are high enough on the S-curve to avoid be the #2 seed sent to Indianapolis against the Hoosiers. I want no part of them until its absolutely necessary, especially in their backyard.

My 2cents.

[InstiGATOR1]

As good as Michigan State is, they dropped 2 games in a row this week. The lost to both Indiana and Ohio State. Goes to show you how strong the Big 10 is.

Does it? UF blew out a 4 loss Wisconson at home. IU lost to a 4 loss Wisconsin at home. Wisconsin also beat Michigan. So I am not sure, despite the boomlet of Michigan State is coming talk last week, that Michigan State is that good.

[InstiGATOR1]

Agreed. I think the influence of the RPI is often overstated.


The influence of RPI is understated in my view. All the records against the top 100 or top 50 ect data given to the committee is based on record against the RPI top 100 or RPI top 50. So RPI is all over the information given to the committee.

[mjbuf05]

I agree, we have to win out to be a #1 seed. The SEC is doing us zero favors this year.

[gogators73]

I don't understand why CBS seems to dislike us? We are consistently on the low end of every kind of ranking compared to the average place people have us.

[phideltdj]

I think that when comparing teams for seeds such as this that home losses should weigh heavily as a determining factor.

[ThePlayer]

I don't understand why CBS seems to dislike us? We are consistently on the low end of every kind of ranking compared to the average place people have us.

It's a north-eastern love affair to be sure.
Only Duke, North Carolina and the sweater-wearing community need apply.

[gulfgator]

There are no demons for this team and Michigan St, the Seniors are 1-0 against them.

[sec1]

we are not a number 1 seed ....

[missourigator]

I predict we lose to Tenn and Ky. We will be a 3 or 4. You have to beat everybody eventually anyway.

[Brewski]

we are not a number 1 seed ....

IF they win the SEC and the SEC tourney it may be hard for them not to be a #1. But, still plenty of hoops to play to rise/drop.

[gogators73]

If we win out we are DEFINITELY a #1 seed.

[mjbuf05]

If we win out we are DEFINITELY a #1 seed.

Not if everybody in front of us wins out also.

[themistocles]

Interesting discussion.

Barring a miracle, which admittedly, might occur, I don't see the Gators as a #1 seed. And I too would rather see the Gators as a #2 seed away from Indiana.

[Brewski]

Not if everybody in front of us wins out also.

Using the AP, 4 of the teams ahead of us play each other. So, there has to be some losses in the future. It will be an interesting finish.

[mjbuf05]

Using the AP, 4 of the teams ahead of us play each other. So, there has to be some losses in the future. It will be an interesting finish.

Great point.

[ThePlayer]

I predict we lose to Tenn and Ky. We will be a 3 or 4. You have to beat everybody eventually anyway.

If so, that will NOT be the outcome any Gator fan is looking for.

[ETGator1]

The way I see it, UF is a 1 seed right now and must finish 26-4 and win or go to the finals of the SEC tournament to stay a 1 seed. The reason I say the finals or win the SEC is the 1 seeds will likely be decided before the SEC tournament is over. For every loss from here to the NCAA tourney, UF will likely drop a seed:

26-4 = 1 seed
25-5 = 2 seed
24-6 = 3 seed

I can't imagine a scenario where we lose more than 2 games including tonight once we get Yeguete and Frazier II back next Saturday at home against bama. We'd have to have more injuries.

To me, our likely seed is from 1 to 3. I think we were a 3 seed when we won the 06 national championship finishing with a 33-6 record. A 3 seed and win the SEC tourney would put this team on the 06 pace.

[ETGator1]

The 1 seed is gone. UF is a 2 seed. Another loss will drop UF to a 3 seed.

[gatordavisl]

The 1 seed is gone. UF is a 2 seed. Another loss will drop UF to a 3 seed. Yep. We had two losses in an ultra-weak SEC. The one seed is gone.

[sec1]

like i said WE are not a number 1 seed , we need to win the sec to be a number 2 seed

[tommyuf21]

We are not a #1 seed. I have maintained this even before tonight. We're in that second group of teams that could, with some breaks, make the final four. We are not one of the top 4 teams in the NCAA.

[gtr2x]

Hard to figure who the 1 seeds are right now. Everybody thought indiana was a lock and still probably are, but didnt look like it tonight. Nobody seems capable of holding the top spot for long.

[tommyuf21]

There's a lot of really good teams this year, but absolutely none that are elite or unbeatable.

The tourney is a crap shoot this season.

[Noahtogo24]

We made the final four as a 5 seed, won it as a 3 seed. In my opinion, this relieves the Gators of the pressure of the 1 seed. 2 seed, 3 seed, not a big difference between them.

[TampaGatorFan]

We will win out and get a #2 seed. If we're not in Indiana's bracket, we'll make the FF.

[sec1]

i hope your right for sure

[GatorAvatar]

We are a #4 seed at best.

[BengermanV]

I could still see us nabbing a #1 seed if we dominate the rest of the way and the dominoes fall the right way. Still, I think the best we can hope for is a #2 seed. A 3,4, or 5 seems much more likely to me at this point, however. I think we lose to Alabama or Kentucky, and then a game in the SECT.

[1984Gator]

#4 Michigan State about to lose on the road to #19 Ohio State. Should help us a bit.

Not much! We just dropped out of the top 10 and will be primed for a 3 or 4 seed now. Falling fast. This team is just plain sloppy, n ot the team that destroyed Marguette!

[adgator]

Won't be out of top 12 when we beat Alabama on Sat!

[GatorAvatar]

Won't be out of top 12 when we beat Alabama on Sat!

Depends. If we play Bama away we lose. Add to that a loss at Rupp and we are a 4/5 seed.

[g8torjeff]

#3 seed is my guess unless we win the SEC

[gatorbogey]

right now lunardi has
indy
gonzaga
duke
michigan
as the #1 seeds

who's waiting in the wings?
UF, Miami, Michigan State?

[tegator80]

#3 seed is my guess unless we win the SEC

I see a 2 or 3 seed because of the perception of the SEC this year. Not bad at all.

[RealGatorFan]

#3 seed by the time the games are called. Every road game is an L at this point and until Will can come back in game shape, I don't see us even in the SECCG. Prather's health will be a key too. Not a good time to start losing players. Can't remember a season where we had so many possibilities to be undone by so many injuries. It has to be frustrating to the players and Billy too.

[SmootyGator]

We are a #4 seed at best.

I'll still take that bet.

[gator2109]

Will be a 1 seed by the time its all said and done, 2 at worst. Too many stumbling blocks for the B1G teams and we beat UK if we have our full team. Hopefully it's a close game too so that will satisfy everyone who thinks we must win a close road game before this team will be able to accomplish anything worthwhile.

[gtr2x]

4/5 seed prediction is absurd.

Usually I dont put much stock in the sec tourney performance, but this yr it might be telling. We will hopefully be at full strength finally and all the games are on a somewhat neutral floor, similar to the NCAAs. Will be interesting to see how the team performs.

[ArtVandelay]

Depends. If we play Bama away we lose. Add to that a loss at Rupp and we are a 4/5 seed.

We don't play BAMA away.

I think our seed will depend on number of losses the rest of the way:

1 loss - #1 seed (unless its the first game of SEC Tourney)

2 losses - #2 seed

3 losses - #3 seed

[Matthanuf06]

We don't play BAMA away.

I think our seed will depend on number of losses the rest of the way:

1 loss - #1 seed (unless its the first game of SEC Tourney)

2 losses - #2 seed

3 losses - #3 seed

Disagree. If we ran the table we'd still maybe have a 25% shot at a 1 seed.

Folks we are going to be a double digit rank in both plays.

My guess is we drop 1 more game and land around a very low 2 or a very high 3 seed.

My odds:

#1: 10%
#2: 35%
#3: 40%
#4: 15%

[ETGator1]

Art, you're too rosey by at least 1 loss:

0 losses - 1 or 2 seed
1 loss - 2 or 3 seed
2 losses - 3 or 4 seed
3 losses - 4 or 5 seed

It'll depend on how others do as well. Who saw Minnesota beating Indiana last night coming?

If our core 8 is back, I don't see anymore losses.

[GatorAvatar]

right now lunardi has
indy
gonzaga
duke
michigan
as the #1 seeds

who's waiting in the wings?
UF, Miami, Michigan State?

Miami might get it depending on tonight's game versus Duke.

[urbangirl]

I don't understand why CBS seems to dislike us? We are consistently on the low end of every kind of ranking compared to the average place people have us.

Consistently Being Snide

[gator2109]

Disagree. If we ran the table we'd still maybe have a 25% shot at a 1 seed.



If we run the table including the SEC tournament we are a lock at a 1 seed.

[iam4uf]

If we run the table including the SEC tournament we are a lock at a 1 seed.

Those are my thoughts. We could still be a #1 by winning out in the regular season & making it to the SEC championship game because the seeders tend to discount the conference tournament. If we lose on the road to UK & lose in the SEC tournament we're a #2.

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Florida.html)

Final Record W-L pctg. Expected RPI Probability
28-5 84.85% 2.6 35.79%
27-6 81.82% 4.4 31.56%
26-6 81.25% 9.4 10.00%
25-6 80.65% 14.4 4.55%
26-7 78.79% 7.5 7.74%
25-7 78.12% 12.7 6.03%
24-7 77.42% 18.8 3.16%
25-8 75.76% 11.2 0.35%
24-8 75.00% 18.3 0.47%
23-8 74.19% 26.3 0.32%
23-9 71.88% 29.0 0.01%
22-9 70.97% 34.0 0.01%

[lean_gator]

Depends. If we play Bama away we lose. Add to that a loss at Rupp and we are a 4/5 seed.

You are such a clown. Just a couple of weeks ago you said we couldn't beat UK @ home and it ruin the entire season. Gtf off this board man.

[JohnC1908]

Even Duke isn't getting calls on the road this season.