Jerry Palm Discusses Florida's #1 Seed Chances

[GothamGator]

He thinks as things stand today, they are close, but not quite there. He gives some stats to back that up. He wouldn't be surprised to see Florida get a one seed, but thinks they have more work to do.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/blog/eye-on-college-basketball/21720810/another-bracket-another-new-no-1

Gonzaga will almost certainly have to win out to have a shot at a No. 1 seed in March.

A lot of people think that Florida should be a No. 1 seed, but their profile just doesn't measure up yet. The Gators have just one top 25 RPI win (Marquette), although a couple others are close. Just four teams in 19 years have received one-seeds with only one top 25 win. There are no more such teams left on their schedule. Only two teams have been one-seeds with a record of 1-2 or worse against the top 25.

They also have only five top 50 wins, and Kentucky is one of those. It's not likely the Wildcats will be top 50 for long. Missouri is though, and the Gators still play them at least one more time. Only seven teams have received one-seeds with as few as five top 50 wins.

Florida is also something of a home-court hero, at least by 1-seed standards. They have yet to beat an at-large quality team away from home. Their best such win was over Middle Tennessee State at Tampa.

So, while I won't be surprised if Florida is a No. 1 seed a month from now, the Gators still have some work to do to make that happen.

[ArtVandelay]

All good points, until you measure them up against the other teams in the country and find out that their resume's aren't that much better.

Did he say what he thinks we need to do to earn that? He said he wouldn't be surprised if we are, but we still only have 1 Top 50 team on our schedule.

[gatordavisl]

It's similar to what many of us posted in a previous thread. The Gators have little room for error, given the SEC schedule. My thought was that we could lose one regular season, make the SEC tourney final and perform well. Otherwise, losing two regular season and winning the tourney might do it. Of course, it all depends upon the rest of the field. Teams like Indiana, L'ville, Mich, Duke have dropped some games, keeping us in the mix.We still have some potentially tough games at Mizzou and at UT (which appears to be coming along at this point).

[GatorPlanet]

His analysis is fair and objective. No problems with it.

The thing is, the top two seeds in each region are now, and will continue to be, in flux between now and Selection Sunday. The arguments for and against teams are all about the same. The Committee will evaluate based on all these various things, but they're also going to rely on gut instinct and eyeball tests. If Florida's SOS is not that impressive at that time, then they may actually say, "So what? The Gators have absolutely destroyed their opponents."

Our 2007 team had 3 straight losses to inferior teams late in the year, and other teams had better records. But the Committee said, "So what? We've seen the Gators, and frankly, they're the best team out there and everyone knows it." And they made us the overall #1 seed.

[sec1]

im sorry but i agree , we play great at home and choke against highly ranked teams away from home

[ufgator4ever]

The SEC is awful. The lack of competition, not the seeding is what may really come back to bite the gators. a 1,2 or 3 seed will be ok, but really need yeguette back for round of sixteen on.

[GatorLurker]

Jerry is putting way too much emphasis on RPI. Against Sagarin Top 50 the Gators are 5-2 and against Pomeroy Top 50 they are 6-2. There is no dearth of quality wins. The committee does look at things other than RPI.

[sixoburn]

He also doesn't mention scoring margin at all. While Florida is unusual in that it hasn't beaten a bunch of top 25 teams, it is also unusual in that it is absolutely crushing major conference competition (save for one game) at a level that exceeds pretty much any NCAA champion. I believe the RPI doesn't include scoring margin, but every analysis indicates that this does matter, and that there is a much bigger difference between a 20 point win and a 1 point win than a 1 point win and a 1 point loss, as far as predictive power goes.

[jareduf]

Our RPI has been between 3 and 4 all week, so I don't see why that would hurt Florida. The game at Missouri on Tuesday is a big one and may leave only 1 other tough game (Tenn). Missouri is going to be extra jacked on Tuesday so it will be a tough one.

[mdgator05]

Wisconsin is currently taking Ohio State to the woodshed, so *crosses fingers* they might be making a trip into the RPI Top 25 soon (they are already there in polls).

That Arizona loss really sucks though. I think we would be set up very well without it. As it stands, I think we might need to win out to get a 1 seed due to the weakness of our schedule.

[rserina]

im sorry but i agree , we play great at home and choke against highly ranked teams away from home
Kansas State and Arky weren't ranked, so you have one game to bitch about. Good analysis.

For my part, I do agree with Palm. The SEC has been certifiably terrible this year, so it leaves us no margin for error.

On the other hand, seeding doesn't occur in a vacuum, so what happens with other teams actually matters. Given the revolving door at the top of the rankings, I don't see many teams that are locks. Miami still has to visit Duke, Indiana has a tough home stretch, lots of Big-10 teams need to play each other, etc.

[gulfgator]

It probably won't matter significantly if UF is a one or a two....There's a reasonable chance if we are a 1 or 2 we would potentially play the same team at the top of the other side of the region(the other 1 or 2). Of course, the road will be different. UF's RPI is very good now, probably will drop, but the S curve is the X factor, who knows what the committee will pump into that formula, but FWIW, this site has UF #2 currently: http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php

[tebowharvin]

RPI analysis is antiquated. Florida overall is the most efficient team in the nation and at the very least deserve a 1 seed. Even if they drop a game or two.

[corpgator]

Time and again has shown that win loss records mean nothing. It's how a team performs against the competition they play that matters.

Florida has been the best all season. We'll see how the committee rates them if Pomeroy still has us as the most efficient at the end of the year.

[gatorbogey]

Jerry is putting way too much emphasis on RPI. Against Sagarin Top 50 the Gators are 5-2 and against Pomeroy Top 50 they are 6-2. There is no dearth of quality wins. The committee does look at things other than RPI.
^^^ THIS!

[Nicho]

It probably won't matter significantly if UF is a one or a two....There's a reasonable chance if we are a 1 or 2 we would potentially play the same team at the top of the other side of the region(the other 1 or 2). Of course, the road will be different. UF's RPI is very good now, probably will drop, but the S curve is the X factor, who knows what the committee will pump into that formula, but FWIW, this site has UF #2 currently: http://www.crashingthedance.com/seed.php

Yep. And I think a #2 seed might feel like a slap in the face to our players, which could cure any complacency that might have set in after a highly successful season.

[GatorLurker]

It probably won't matter significantly if UF is a one or a two....

Tell me that if we are the 2 seed in the Indianapolis Regional with Indiana as the 1 and Butler as the 3.

[gulfgator]

Tell me that if we are the 2 seed in the Indianapolis Regional with Indiana as the 1 and Butler as the 3.


Could happen, sure. Maybe UF wants Indiana as the 1 if we were a two. Looking at the remaining schedules, you could make a case it may be more likely IU ends up seeded below us than the other way around. IU could be the 2 or 3, would that make playing them any easier? None of the "great" teams are really great this year, so it's hard to know.

[gogators73]

Can anyone point to a link that says the Committee looks at Sagarin or pomeroy?

The committee looks at RPI and puts a big emphasis on it.

[gatorbogey]

Can anyone point to a link that says the Committee looks at Sagarin or pomeroy?

The committee looks at RPI and puts a big emphasis on it.

they unofficially study sagarin and pomeroy, but i don't think i've ever seen any of them admit it ;)
officially, they use rpi; they'll refer to it when it fits their reasoning and not when it's nonsensical

[UFSECKINGS]

Palm has our bracket as follows: Michigan St, Florida, Louisville, Kansas. Wow.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

[gatorbogey]

that bracket would have bilas and company talking

[themistocles]

If the Gators win out, a #1 seed is likely.

If they lose a game, but win the SEC tournament, a #1 seed is possible, but not as likely.

If they beat everyone by at least 20 points, it increases the chances for a #1 seed, but by how much is an unknown.

This is one fact that makes basketball so interesting, its inherent unpredictability.

[bogator]

Palm has our bracket as follows: Michigan St, Florida, Louisville, Kansas. Wow.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

And Wisconsin as the 6 seed as well. That is a crazy bracket. I would not want to be in that bracket.

[BengermanV]

That will never happen, I can promise you all that. The NCAA likes to spread out big name schools, not stick them all in the same bracket.

[Distant Gator]

I think we will be in the same bracket as Miami. We don't play them in the regular season and we are in the same state. The committee loves to do that.

[manigordo]

Don't get me wrong, I love this team. But, the argument that we compare to FSU in football is dead on fair. We have a soft schedule this year and have difficulty with strong opponents from other leagues. We have a great chance in the tourney if WY is back and we are using our experience to play well.

One can make an argument in our favor, but the one against us is fair and powerful.

[bakaduin]

How important does that game with Georgetown look now? If we have that win we are sitting pretty.

[GothamGator]

How do you guys feel about this?

As a top four seed, the committee would place us in the closest possible location for the opening weekend. This year, that location is Lexington, Kentucky.

[GothamGator]

My guess is that we can afford one more loss the rest of the way (including the SEC Tournament) to have any chance at a 1-seed.

On a good note, Wisconsin is up to #26 in this morning's RPI, so we are close to having another top quality win.

One thing that is unusual in our résumé is that we are absolutely crushing people. It's pretty rare for one team to be so far ahead of others on margin-of-victory, and I'm not sure that the NCAA looks at this at all.

[gulfgator]

How do you guys feel about this. As a top four seed, the committee would place us in the closest possible location for the opening weekend. This year, that location is Lexington, Kentucky.

Which means, barring a complete meltdown, we are a lock for Lexington.

I think we all wish UF had a closer location, but while I think cat fans won't be really pulling for us, as a whole they probably won't cheer too hard against us, but who knows?

[InstiGATOR1]

How important does that game with Georgetown look now? If we have that win we are sitting pretty.

As important as you think the difference between being a 1 and a 2 seed. Ultimately, if you are a 1 you are in line to play a 4 in the round of 16, while as 2 you are in line to play a 3. So I think the differences are not that great, so not having the Georgetown game is not that big a deal.

[orlandogator]

I didnt bother to read the article but was he figuring in that we have been beating these teams on ann average of 23 points?

[corpgator]

The committee supposedly de-emphasizes the rpi now and places little weight on it.

[regurgigator]

Don't get me wrong, I love this team. But, the argument that we compare to FSU in football is dead on fair. We have a soft schedule this year and have difficulty with strong opponents from other leagues. We have a great chance in the tourney if WY is back and we are using our experience to play well.

One can make an argument in our favor, but the one against us is fair and powerful.

:huh:


We blew out 2 strong OOC opponents who are at or near the top of their conferences.

And, although it may very well be forgotten by the Committee (and obviously you), immediately after the game most people - including Arizona fans and national media - thought we clearly looked like the better team against Arizona while losing to them by 1 point on their court.

The only game where I thought we really struggled and looked mediocre (and the opponent looked bad also as far as I'm concerned) was the K State game. I wouldn't say there's much of a trend there.


That said, I'm not that concerned about getting a #1 seed. #2 seed would be almost as good. Even a #3 is not too bad to work with normally.

[TampaGatorFan]

That said, I'm not that concerned about getting a #1 seed. #2 seed would be almost as good. Even a #3 is not too bad to work with normally.

Yup...either a #1 or a #2 would be just fine.

[dadx4]

I am thinking we end up the "low #1 seed" or the highest "2 seed".....jmo.

[SmootyGator]

Yup...either a #1 or a #2 would be just fine.

To me, it is almost irrelevant if we get a #1 or #2 seed, I just want good match-ups. Good match-ups are worth way more than one spot in the seedings.

[Osiris_DPM]

:huh:


We blew out 2 strong OOC opponents who are at or near the top of their conferences.

And, although it may very well be forgotten by the Committee (and obviously you), immediately after the game most people - including Arizona fans and national media - thought we clearly looked like the better team against Arizona while losing to them by 1 point on their court.

The only game where I thought we really struggled and looked mediocre (and the opponent looked bad also as far as I'm concerned) was the K State game. I wouldn't say there's much of a trend there.


That said, I'm not that concerned about getting a #1 seed. #2 seed would be almost as good. Even a #3 is not too bad to work with normally.

This is exactly what I was about to post. Also, for how cold we were, our loss to K-State on the road (2 nights before Christmas) was only a 6 point loss.

[Matthanuf06]

To me, it is almost irrelevant if we get a #1 or #2 seed, I just want good match-ups. Good match-ups are worth way more than one spot in the seedings.

It's more likely to get good matchups as a 1 than as a 2. Seed definitely matters and its the one thing you can control. You can't control upsets or the committee putting a tougher 8 in your bracket than an 8 in another bracket

[malscott]

fabulous team this year. The only current fly in the proverbial ointment would be we can't seem to beat the big boys away from home. Possibly the other one is: when we get a favorable ranking...go Gators.