Why doesn't NFL Draft mirror Rivals rankings?

[HudsonGator]

February 14, 2013

Why doesn't NFL Draft mirror Rivals rankings?

Dallas Jackson
Columnist

Since 1998, there have been 12 quarterbacks taken with the first pick in the NFL Draft -- and 2013 could make it 13 as the Kansas City Chiefs reportedly are mulling taking West Virginia's Geno Smith.

But that trend hasn't been reflected in recruiting rankings as Rivals.com has named a defensive end the top prospect in four of the past five classes, including the initial class of 2014 Rivals100 ranking, with Woodbridge (Va.) High DE Da'Shawn Hand in the top spot.

Rivals.com national recruiting analyst Mike Farrell said if the rankings were simply about predicting the NFL draft, Rivals.com would just tab QBs. But they are not.

"Some people will say quarterback is the most valuable spot because it goes first in the NFL Draft every year, but future projections are only part of the equation when it comes to rankings," Farrell said. "The way positions get overvalued as you move up the ladder is a part of the rationale of why a quarterback isn't our top guy every year. I would love it if there were a quarterback worth that top spot every year, but the bottom line is that so much with a quarterback is mental; and that is one of the hardest parts to determine on this level.

"Some people will say quarterback is the most valuable spot because it goes first in the NFL Draft every year, but future projections are only part of the equation when it comes to rankings," Farrell said. "The way positions get overvalued as you move up the ladder is a part of the rationale of why a quarterback isn't our top guy every year. I would love it if there were a quarterback worth that top spot every year, but the bottom line is that so much with a quarterback is mental; and that is one of the hardest parts to determine on this level.

"I don't want it to sound like an easy way out, but when you see a big, rare athlete at the defensive end position, or an incredibly athletic offensive tackle, or a linebacker that can rush and cover in space with all the physical tools, or even a cornerback that has size and speed, those are easier to rank than high school quarterbacks.

"The competition level that a quarterback goes against in high school changes from player to player, as do his receivers, linemen, everything really, and we are against the wall in that aspect," Farrell said. "When I hear that Rivals missed on this guy or that guy, it isn't really true or fair. Some guys get into a system that is wrong for them or one that really benefits their game. Some develop late. Some have an 'it factor' that you just can't see when you put them in a camp setting."

Three of the four quarterbacks who reached the AFC and NFC Championship games were rated as three-stars by Rivals.com. Tom Brady was in college before the first class of players was evaluated in 2002.

Matt Ryan was a three-star from Philadelphia (Pa.) William Penn Charter. He ran a Wing-T offense in high school and had only four offers being ranked No. 25 at his position in the class of 2003.

Colin Kaepernick famously had only one football offer coming out of Turlock (Calif.) Pitman. He was a touted baseball player with a handful of offers to stay on the diamond but chose football. He was a three-star and the No. 34 player at his position.

Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco had six offers and chose Pittsburgh before transferring to Delaware. He was the No. 39 pro-style quarterback from Audubon (N.J.) High....

http://footballrecruiting.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1471836

[NoahBeanBizzel]

It's because recruiting doesn't matter. Ron Zook brought in the number one class in the country, and he never one more than eight games. Like Muschamp said: the stars don't matter. If they did, Zook would still have a headset on his skull.

It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.

[Tasselhoff]

Noah
You may want to rethink what you posted. When you say it isnt the x and o it is the jessies and joes ....you are saying that it is in fact NOT the coaching but instead the recruiting that matters....which seems to be the opposite of tbe point you wanted to make...

Or more likely I just missed something

[gatorchamp27]

It's because recruiting doesn't matter. Ron Zook brought in the number one class in the country, and he never one more than eight games. Like Muschamp said: the stars don't matter. If they did, Zook would still have a headset on his skull.

It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.

Or more like Meyer didnt coach chit. Meyer was and is a creative fixer and seller of many things especially a college football program but coaching isnt necessarily something that I can give him an abundance of credit for.

[tilly]

It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.

I both agree and disagree with your conflicting statement. The x's and o's refer to coaching them up.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tablet using Gator Country

[tilly]

Or more like Meyer didnt coach chit. Meyer was and is a creative fixer and seller of many things especially a college football program but coaching isnt necessarily something that I can give him an abundance of credit for.

Hmmm...did you ever watch HIS special teams? He directly coached that unit, and they were amazing.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tablet using Gator Country

[gatorchamp27]

Man are you seriously talking about a special teams group that he loads with starters. I give him credit for finding Brandon James yes, but how much coaching did that take, or putting the ball in Percys hand how much coaching did that take? Like I said he is creative and got a lot of blocked kicks from it, but his overall coaching is coming up short.

[GatorEst1992]

If anyone is good at coaching kids up it would be spurrier I mean look what he's done at sc, if foley wouldn't of been a douche and hired spurrier instead of meyer we wouldn't be talking about saban and alabama

[HudsonGator]

...It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.


http://pauloflaherty.com/files/2011/01/inconceivable.jpg

[Tebowism0823]

If anyone is good at coaching kids up it would be spurrier I mean look what he's done at sc, if foley wouldn't of been a douche and hired spurrier instead of meyer we wouldn't be talking about saban and alabama

Yeah keep telling yourself that. Spurrier was the douche who thought the job should just be given to him. Meyer was 10x the hire spurrier would've been.

[tilly]

Man are you seriously talking about a special teams group that he loads with starters. I give him credit for finding Brandon James yes, but how much coaching did that take, or putting the ball in Percys hand how much coaching did that take? Like I said he is creative and got a lot of blocked kicks from it, but his overall coaching is coming up short.

He coached the special teams. They were highly successful. Isnt that the bottom line? They lose to USCe in 06 without speecial teams....and I'm not refering to Harvin or James.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Tablet using Gator Country

[Tebowism0823]

Man are you seriously talking about a special teams group that he loads with starters. I give him credit for finding Brandon James yes, but how much coaching did that take, or putting the ball in Percys hand how much coaching did that take? Like I said he is creative and got a lot of blocked kicks from it, but his overall coaching is coming up short.

Why wouldn't you play starters on special teams? They're starters because they are the best at what they do. I don't like UM from a person aspect but his coaching pedigree and results are unquestionable.

Not to mention that field position is everything in college football; or even the NFL for that matter.

Also if his coaching was that horrible how'd all of those players find their way to the NFL during his regime?

[zoltanuf]

Meyer takes over a 2-9 Bowling Green team. Two years later, they're 9-3.
Takes over a 5-6 Utah team. 2 years later, they're 12-0
Takes over a 7-5 Florida team. 2 years later, they're national champions
Takes over a 6-7 OSU team. 1 year later, they're 12-0.

Yeah, poor guy. Not much of a coach.

[GatorEst1992]

I can't stand y'all backing the liar up god that makes me so mad its just plain selfish, " o he got us 2 national titles" big freakin deal he screwed us and took off with the douche next door idc about the NC id rather have a guy that cares about the kids and the team rather than be a selfish prick who's all about himself and at any sign of competition bails because he can't handle losing what douche and y'all are no better by backin him up you don't run from competition and especially lie about it and fake a medical condition god he makes me so mad why don't you just move to ohio and become suckeye fans if you like him so much

[GatorEst1992]

Why wouldn't you play starters on special teams? They're starters because they are the best at what they do. I don't like UM from a person aspect but his coaching pedigree and results are unquestionable.

Not to mention that field position is everything in college football; or even the NFL for that matter.

Also if his coaching was that horrible how'd all of those players find their way to the NFL during his regime?

Why weren't we prepared to play bama in 09 and so bad the year after that if his coaching was so good the way y'all talk about him sounds like he just any team he's on just automatically becomes a NC contender he left us because he knew saban was better and didn't want to have to deal with him and now we have a coach who embraces competition and welcomes it and in a couple years saban will be a past memory muschamp is 10x the coach and person that the coach up north will ever be

[GatorStang]

I can't stand y'all backing the liar up god that makes me so mad its just plain selfish, " o he got us 2 national titles" big freakin deal he screwed us and took off with the douche next door idc about the NC id rather have a guy that cares about the kids and the team rather than be a selfish prick who's all about himself and at any sign of competition bails because he can't handle losing what douche and y'all are no better by backin him up you don't run from competition and especially lie about it and fake a medical condition god he makes me so mad why don't you just move to ohio and become suckeye fans if you like him so much

Buddy, I agree with you, but punctuation goes a long way when you are arguing your case.

[AFCyberGator]

Without bringing Urban Meyer and Ron Zook further into the discussion, I would say that the NFL Draft and Rivals rankings measure two different things. They both assess talent and potential to succeed in totally different sports with comparisons against totally different sample groups. NFL football and NCAA football look like the same sport, but they are not the same sport. This is not to say they are totally different from one another, but they are different enough where rankings of talent and potential will yield different scores.

[HudsonGator]

I can't stand y'all backing the liar up god that makes me so mad its just plain selfish, " o he got us 2 national titles" big freakin deal he screwed us and took off with the douche next door idc about the NC id rather have a guy that cares about the kids and the team rather than be a selfish prick who's all about himself and at any sign of competition bails because he can't handle losing what douche and y'all are no better by backin him up you don't run from competition and especially lie about it and fake a medical condition god he makes me so mad why don't you just move to ohio and become suckeye fans if you like him so much


http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/25175272.jpg

[GatorEst1992]

That's what happens when I go on a venting rant sorry. Plus, when I'm on my phone I usually never use punctuation, that's for english class and writing essays. Nobody got time fo that! Takes to long write if I have to punctuate i

[Nicho]

It's because recruiting doesn't matter. Ron Zook brought in the number one class in the country, and he never one more than eight games. Like Muschamp said: the stars don't matter. If they did, Zook would still have a headset on his skull.

It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.

As already mentioned, you mixed up what you were trying to say about Jessies and Joes. But that aside, your post couldn't be further from the truth. Muschamp will be the first to tell you that recruiting matters. When he says stars don't matter, he is simply pointing out that he recruits based on his own set of criteria/standards rather than that of a website. But he does have a set of criteria/standards that must be met, a minimum talent level that must be filled in order to consider himself successful. So while stars don't matter, recruiting absolutely matters. You have taken his quote completely out of context.

Zook couldn't win consistently, but Meyer came in and won with Zook's talented roster. At that point, we had the talent AND the coaching. Then he built his own talented roster and won again. And in both cases, the recruiting sites generally recognized the talent within the program for what it was: elite.

Jessies and Joes matter, but so do Xs and Os. Who ever said it has to be one or the other? The most competitive programs right now kill it on the recruiting trail AND coach the hell out of their blue chippers. See a certain head coach in Tuscaloosa for another example.

[socraticsilence]

It's because recruiting doesn't matter. Ron Zook brought in the number one class in the country, and he never one more than eight games. Like Muschamp said: the stars don't matter. If they did, Zook would still have a headset on his skull.

It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.

This is true to an extent but on average stars do matter... look how high recruiting classes correlate to high final rankings.

[socraticsilence]

Or more like Meyer didnt coach chit. Meyer was and is a creative fixer and seller of many things especially a college football program but coaching isnt necessarily something that I can give him an abundance of credit for.

Amazing how a guy who can't coach has the highest winning percentage of any active major college coach. I wish I could be bad at my job and be second best person on the planet at it.

[socraticsilence]

I can't stand y'all backing the liar up god that makes me so mad its just plain selfish, " o he got us 2 national titles" big freakin deal he screwed us and took off with the douche next door idc about the NC id rather have a guy that cares about the kids and the team rather than be a selfish prick who's all about himself and at any sign of competition bails because he can't handle losing what douche and y'all are no better by backin him up you don't run from competition and especially lie about it and fake a medical condition god he makes me so mad why don't you just move to ohio and become suckeye fans if you like him so much

You do realize a lot of that rant could describe Spurrier as well right- he wasn't exactly shy about taking credit, and its not like he stayed with Rex and Jabar. Heck, if you want to talk about taking up with the person next door it was SOS not Meyer who decided to be an obstacle and directly hurt Florida's title chances every year.

[socraticsilence]

Why weren't we prepared to play bama in 09 and so bad the year after that if his coaching was so good the way y'all talk about him sounds like he just any team he's on just automatically becomes a NC contender he left us because he knew saban was better and didn't want to have to deal with him and now we have a coach who embraces competition and welcomes it and in a couple years saban will be a past memory muschamp is 10x the coach and person that the coach up north will ever be

Person maybe, Coach.. remains to be seen, he's off to a decent start but Boom has a long way to go before we put him in the Meyer or Spurrier conversation.

[gator7_5]

SMH every time this thread comes up once a yr.

SEC teams dominate recruiting, along with Ohio St, ND, USC, Texas and couple more.

Who wins championships again?

[gatorsfan530]

Or more like Meyer didnt coach chit. Meyer was and is a creative fixer and seller of many things especially a college football program but coaching isnt necessarily something that I can give him an abundance of credit for.

This post is total bull****

[rserina]

It is nearly impossible to have a rational football conversation about an interesting topic if a few don't starting taking your lithium.

To the point, I think it is pretty obvious: There is no direct correlation on an individual basis between recruiting ranking and draft selection. First, the draft selects for need, not quality (no matter how much the GMs insist they select the best available player). Second, recruiting rankings don't predict pro potential, which has very different criteria based on style of play, etc., but rather collegiate potential, which is usually dependent more upon athleticism than position fit. Third, development matters. Some kids are maxed out when they arrive on campus, some peak early in college, some gradually improve or explode late and make themselves draft candidates, others don't scratch the surface of their potential until they reach the league.

The correlation between the success of individual players and recruiting rankings, however, is much lower than the correlation between team success and recruiting rankings.

[tilly]

I can't stand y'all backing the liar up god that makes me so mad its just plain selfish, " o he got us 2 national titles" big freakin deal he screwed us and took off with the douche next door idc about the NC id rather have a guy that cares about the kids and the team rather than be a selfish prick who's all about himself and at any sign of competition bails because he can't handle losing what douche and y'all are no better by backin him up you don't run from competition and especially lie about it and fake a medical condition god he makes me so mad why don't you just move to ohio and become suckeye fans if you like him so much

Punctuation is your friend.

[rserina]

Punctuation is your friend.
I figured that was all part of the joke. Oh, wait--it wasn't a joke?

[gators1422]

Some people on hear crack me up. Meyer isn't a good coach??? Really? ? If you like him or not the man is one of the best ever at his job. For those of you saying "well he had all the talent" that's part of the job, getting the talent. I dislike Meyer for stealing money his final year but the man is a phenomenal football coach.

[theologator]

Meyer will soon be in the Gator Ring of Honor. 'Nuff said.

[geauxgator1]

Meyer's tenure at UF was meteoric, but like a meteor he flamed out quickly. He wasn't a likable guy, had a crappy personality, but who can argue with 2 NC's in 6 years. I'm glad he's gone.

[phatGator]

Why does every thread become about S&M?

[theologator]

Why does every thread become about S&M?

Because some revel in pain, even self-inflicted pain.

:-)

[Tebowism0823]

Why weren't we prepared to play bama in 09 and so bad the year after that if his coaching was so good the way y'all talk about him sounds like he just any team he's on just automatically becomes a NC contender he left us because he knew saban was better and didn't want to have to deal with him and now we have a coach who embraces competition and welcomes it and in a couple years saban will be a past memory muschamp is 10x the coach and person that the coach up north will ever be

Who is y'all? Since when is losing to a better team that horrible. We did go 13-1 that year. You show me a link to a statement that he was scared of Saban and ill run with it.

Muschamp being a good or better coach has nothing to do with this thread nor does it make your point. Everywhere Meyer has gone he has won. You cannot dispute that. Now feel free to hate him, I just dislike him, but it still won't change the facts.

Ps. Feel free to actually argue the main point of my comment if you want.

[Tebowism0823]

I figured that was all part of the joke. Oh, wait--it wasn't a joke?

I'm afraid not.

[NoahBeanBizzel]

As already mentioned, you mixed up what you were trying to say about Jessies and Joes. But that aside, your post couldn't be further from the truth. Muschamp will be the first to tell you that recruiting matters. When he says stars don't matter, he is simply pointing out that he recruits based on his own set of criteria/standards rather than that of a website. But he does have a set of criteria/standards that must be met, a minimum talent level that must be filled in order to consider himself successful. So while stars don't matter, recruiting absolutely matters. You have taken his quote completely out of context.

Zook couldn't win consistently, but Meyer came in and won with Zook's talented roster. At that point, we had the talent AND the coaching. Then he built his own talented roster and won again. And in both cases, the recruiting sites generally recognized the talent within the program for what it was: elite.

Jessies and Joes matter, but so do Xs and Os. Who ever said it has to be one or the other? The most competitive programs right now kill it on the recruiting trail AND coach the hell out of their blue chippers. See a certain head coach in Tuscaloosa for another example.

Look, there's no need to ridicule my line of thinking on this one. No need for underlying sarcasm. No need to make a spoof of my opinion(s). I call a spade a spade. You think that personnel plays a big part in the process? That's great. I THINK it's the Jessies and the Joes. These kids need to be coached up, and Muschamp is going to take it home.

Give me three-star studs like Marcus Roberson and Louichez Purifoy all day over a guy like Torrey Davis. Or Gary Brown. Or John Brown. Guys like Purifoy and Roberson committed early in the process, came in, worked their tails off, and both are elite corners. On the other hand, look at how many five-star flops we've had. Those are just a few isolated examples I can think of.

Again, I think that personnel-to a certain degree-matters. But not nearly as much as the Jessies and Joes. These kids need to be coached up.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

But the saying implies it's about the player quality, not the coaching, which is the opposite of what you said.

[NoahBeanBizzel]

No, I'm implying that it's all what happens when they get on campus.

Again, personnel matters; just not as much as the Jessies and Joes do.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

As for "On the other hand, look at how many five-star flops we've had," that's just nonsensical. As a percentage of players recruited, 5-star guys have a far better batting average than 3-star guys.

From 2002-2008, how many flops do you count:
Ciatrick Fason
Joe Cohen
Andre Caldwell
Chad Jackson
Jarvis Moss
Dee Webb
Derrick Harvey
Percy Harvin
Carl Johnson
Brandon Spikes
Tim Tebow
Torrey Davis
Carlos Dunlap
Cam Newton
James Wilson
Will Hill
Omar Hunter
Carl Moore
Matt Patchan

I see maybe 3 total flops.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

It's not about the x's and o's; it's about the jessies and joes. In other words, you have to coach these kids up. Nobody was better than Meyer when it came to this.

So .. "the x's and o's" is coaching them up, which is why everyone's harping on that statement, FYI.

[Nicho]

No, I'm implying that it's all what happens when they get on campus.

Again, personnel matters; just not as much as the Jessies and Joes do.

Roberson was the #1 corner in his class according to some sites. That, and he was committed to Auburn and Texas Tech before flipping to UF at the eleventh hour.

You also can't seem to grasp the meaning of the J & J quote.

[NoahBeanBizzel]

As for "On the other hand, look at how many five-star flops we've had," that's just nonsensical. As a percentage of players recruited, 5-star guys have a far better batting average than 3-star guys.

From 2002-2008, how many flops do you count:
Ciatrick Fason
Joe Cohen
Andre Caldwell
Chad Jackson
Jarvis Moss
Dee Webb
Derrick Harvey
Percy Harvin
Carl Johnson
Brandon Spikes
Tim Tebow
Torrey Davis
Carlos Dunlap
Cam Newton
James Wilson
Will Hill
Omar Hunter
Carl Moore
Matt Patchan

I see maybe 3 total flops.

That's all relative to what you believe a "flop" truly is. I'm looking at a list you made, and maybe three of those guys (Spikes, Harvin and Tebow) have actually done anything significant as a pro. And Harvin is the only one on that list, who you could legitimately build a franchise around. I don't count Newton, because he played at Auburn.

If you put in proper perspective what a five-star recruit is billed as, the best and brightest in high school football in terms of predicted college-and pro-production, there's a lot of untapped potential there, friend.

Again, it's about the Jessies and Joes.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

First of all, since we're talking about recruiting, you absolutely have to include Newton as we recruited him. I think you might want to put Derrick Harvey, Andre Caldwell, Carlos Dunlap and Will Hill on that list as I believe they're all starters.

That's like a "hit rate" of 30% if you count everyone using your requirements.

Now do the same for the 3-star guys. I think there's maybe 2 or 3 that are playing or did play in the NFL out of 50 or so in the same time period.

5-star players are absolutely, quantitatively better bets than 3-star players.

[nawlinsgator]

No, I'm implying that it's all what happens when they get on campus.

Again, personnel matters; just not as much as the Jessies and Joes do.

Ummmm....somebody still doesn't understand his own quote.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

You also can't seem to grasp the meaning of the J & J quote.

Yeah, this is actually sort of amazing.

[tilly]

That's all relative to what you believe a "flop" truly is. I'm looking at a list you made, and maybe three of those guys (Spikes, Harvin and Tebow) have actually done anything significant as a pro.

BUT....they were not recruited to be Pros. They were recruited to be Gators.
As Gators most were very successful.

[StrangeGator]

The article is about quarterbacks, one of the most difficult positions to evaluate when looking at high school juniors and seniors. We also have to consider that coaches are evaluating QBs to fit into their own college systems. Was Chris Leak a bad recruit because he wasn't drafted? Wad Tebow because he's yet to pan out?

Articles like this are relevant about just about any other position, but not QB. Why is it that I'm the dumbest guy on this board and I was the first person to figure this out?

[nawlinsgator]

Danny Wuerffel, the greatest Gator ever, was a flop as a pro. But he's still the greatest Gator ever.

[theologator]

As for "On the other hand, look at how many five-star flops we've had," that's just nonsensical. As a percentage of players recruited, 5-star guys have a far better batting average than 3-star guys.

From 2002-2008, how many flops do you count:
Ciatrick Fason
Joe Cohen
Andre Caldwell
Chad Jackson
Jarvis Moss
Dee Webb
Derrick Harvey
Percy Harvin
Carl Johnson
Brandon Spikes
Tim Tebow
Torrey Davis
Carlos Dunlap
Cam Newton
James Wilson
Will Hill
Omar Hunter
Carl Moore
Matt Patchan

I see maybe 3 total flops.

Not arguing your point, but which service did you use? I'm pretty sure there were more than these per scout.com, though the additions wouldn't undermine your point. I'm thinking off the top of my head of Chris Rainey and John Brown. Brown flopped because of all sorts of off the field issues. Rainey was All-SEC. The rating systems of the various sites is a whole other discussion.

I did a 5-year analysis a few years ago. It was clear that significantly more 5-star guys made it than 4, more 4-star guys than 3. There are busts and surprises, but you're absolutely right that on average they are useful. For good reason.

Speaking of the coaches' personal ratings, Muschamp asked if the services ere going off the coaching ratings. The answer is yes, absolutely, and it has always been so.

Among the earliest recruiting reporting in Florida was the Tampa Tribune's Blue Chip list that cane out each year on Christmas Day. They would ask the coaches at UF, FSU and Miami which players they were after. If a kid was on all 3 lists he was 'blue chip', 2 lists = red, 1 = gold.

Today, those recruiting reporters are gathering data from programs and talking to HS & college coaches nonstop. At no point are they evaluating a guy independently. It's all based on a what they can learn, it isn't as though Jamie Newberg or Tom Lemming are acting like scouts. They are reporters. Their buzz isn't fictitious but it is just reporting.

I'm glad Coach Muschamp relies on his staff and not the general buzz reported on sites. He is responsible for every decision so he'd better rely on the people he trusts as well as his own eyes.

[theologator]

Again, it's about the Jessies and Joes.

Noah: I think your points are reasonable and worthy of discussion whether or not people agree with you. But you keep using these phrases inaccurately, which leads people to argue with what you didn't mean to say.

The phrase "Jesses and Joes" is and has always been a catchphrase meaning talent, used in contrast with X's and O's (offensive and defensive schemes) as a point of emphasis.

Player development, which I think you mean, is another factor. It isn't "Jesses and Joes", no matter how many times you try to say it that way.

I hope that is helpful. If not, no offense intended.

[socraticsilence]

That's all relative to what you believe a "flop" truly is. I'm looking at a list you made, and maybe three of those guys (Spikes, Harvin and Tebow) have actually done anything significant as a pro. And Harvin is the only one on that list, who you could legitimately build a franchise around. I don't count Newton, because he played at Auburn.

If you put in proper perspective what a five-star recruit is billed as, the best and brightest in high school football in terms of predicted college-and pro-production, there's a lot of untapped potential there, friend.

Again, it's about the Jessies and Joes.

Wait you think a 5 star should be a franchise player in the NFL-- So there should be like 1 to 4 5 stars every year then right. I mean I can get that line of thought I just want to make sure you're not saying guys are busts if they're not franchise cornerstones because that is an impossibly high standard.

[socraticsilence]

First of all, since we're talking about recruiting, you absolutely have to include Newton as we recruited him. I think you might want to put Derrick Harvey, Andre Caldwell, Carlos Dunlap and Will Hill on that list as I believe they're all starters.

That's like a "hit rate" of 30% if you count everyone using your requirements.

Now do the same for the 3-star guys. I think there's maybe 2 or 3 that are playing or did play in the NFL out of 50 or so in the same time period.

5-star players are absolutely, quantitatively better bets than 3-star players.

This, I mean yes there are exceptions etc. but on the aggregate 5 star players are clearly, better. Heck look at the list again-- or name a non-4 or 5 star player that was a dominant force for us in the last 15 years- I'm not saying it doesn't happen (Demps springs to mind though that one always seemed more of an oversight than a guy with hidden talent- how do you when making a list largely focused on physical attributes not list the fastest 18 year old of all time as at least 4 star if he's proven he can play football).

Note that most of the examples people bring up (Shane Matthews, etc) are from back when recruiting wasn't an industry unto itself- the others are guys with non-ideal physical abilities who do genuinely surprise and play positions where mental factors are big (Johnny Football was a 3 star not because he couldn't throw but because he was slightly built and a bit short-- heck look at the thread on him a TAMU fan started last August here on Swampgas and read how many people said he'd get killed due to his size).

[socraticsilence]

Danny Wuerffel, the greatest Gator ever, was a flop as a pro. But he's still the greatest Gator ever.

That's debatable I think it depends on the age of the fan-- old timers will talk about Marshall or Steve, younger guys Tim and Percy, etc.
I've always been intrigued by what happens to Leak if he has Steve as his coach- he always seemed like the ideal Spurrier QB, great touch, smart, etc- maybe he could've been Danny with a bit more mobility-- think about his true freshman year- he beat a Saban coached LSU team that would go on to win the NC in Death Valley!

Heck, I've had some people tell me Rex if Steve doesn't leave, I don't agree-- Rex is Rex he wasn't going to tame his gunslinger mentality for any coach-- but its an interesting thought.

[tilly]

That's debatable I think it depends on the age of the fan-- old timers will talk about Marshall or Steve, younger guys Tim and Percy, etc.
I've always been intrigued by what happens to Leak if he has Steve as his coach- he always seemed like the ideal Spurrier QB, great touch, smart, etc- maybe he could've been Danny with a bit more mobility-- think about his true freshman year- he beat a Saban coached LSU team that would go on to win the NC in Death Valley!

Heck, I've had some people tell me Rex if Steve doesn't leave, I don't agree-- Rex is Rex he wasn't going to tame his gunslinger mentality for any coach-- but its an interesting thought.

Good points. Leak threw a very pretty ball. IN an SOS system he would have been a serious Heisman threat.

Rex, might have been great, or might have gotten benched...you know how Steve gets sometimes. :joecool:

[theologator]

Good points. Leak threw a very pretty ball. IN an SOS system he would have been a serious Heisman threat.

Rex, might have been great, or might have gotten benched...you know how Steve gets sometimes. :joecool:

Rex WAS benched by SOS. ;-)

Leak would have been cash money in the SOS system. The all-time passing leader at UF despite 3 OC's (Zaumbrecher, Fedora & Mullen) and two years in a system that wasn't his style. What a great great Gator.