The SEC Race

[MadduxFanII]

I've become a little obsessed with the idea that we really have to win the conference this year. It really seems like a confluence of events we're not going to see very often. A championship-quality Florida team, combined with a weaker-than-usual SEC, especially a down Kentucky squad, all means this is an opportunity for a relatively easy conference championship we're not going to get with great frequency.

At the moment, here are the standings:

1. Bringers of Light and Decency, 10-1
2. Kentucky, 8-3
3. Alabama, 8-3
4. Mississippi, 7-3
5. Missouri, 6-4

I could go deeper, but, well, we have 14 damn teams in this conference and I'm pretty lazy. No one below Missouri is really worth discussing in this context.

Now, of the teams listed I think we can put Missouri to the side for a second. Even a win tonight still puts them three games back of us with seven to play, which is difficult to imagine them making up.

By that same logic, Ole Miss' hopes rest on their game tonight with A&M. A loss would pretty much put the Rebels out of mind.

So, assuming Mississippi wins tonight, you have four teams with a realistic shot. Florida at the top, then Alabama, Kentucky and Ole Miss sitting two games back. This with seven games to play.

Two games with seven to go is a good place to be. Hard deficit to make up when the team on top is as good as we are. Here's our remaining schedule:

@Auburn
@Missouri
Arkansas
@Tennessee
Alabama
Vanderbilt
@Kentucky

I know that the next few sentences are going to be met with some version of, "You can't overlook any games! We can lose to anybody! ARKANSASARKANSASARKANSASARKANSAS!"

Still, I feel quite confident that we'll be able to handle Auburn (yes, even on the road) and Vanderbilt with relative ease. Those are really awful teams and we're really good.

So, if you count those as wins the task for one of the teams below us becomes making up two games with five to play. I think 12 wins are pretty much in the bag.

Remaining schedules for Kentucky, 'Bama and Ole Miss:

Kentucky:
@Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Missouri
Mississippi State
@Arkansas
@Georgia
Florida

Alabama
South Carolina
Mississippi State
@LSU
Auburn
@Florida
@Ole Miss
Georgia

Ole Miss
@A&M
Georgia
@South Carolina
Auburn
A&M
@Mississippi State
Alabama
@LSU

My instinct is that Alabama presents the biggest challenge. They have a pretty soft run of four games coming up, three of which are at home, and they get a head-to-head shot at us.

Ole Miss might still prove a bit of a pest. The toughest game they have coming up is tonight's tilt at A&M, after which they have a pretty soft run until facing Alabama in their penultimate game. Their final game is on the road against a pretty crummy LSU team.

Kentucky still has games at home against Missouri and Florida, and a road test at Arkansas. Plus, with the loss of Noel I just don't see them as being good enough.

So we're not quite at the breathe easy point yet. I hope to see Alabama trip up unexpectedly on one of their upcoming speed bumps. I don't love the idea of them coming to Gainesville with the chance to cut our lead to one game, or perhaps even tie atop the standings (the game at Missouri is going to be a bear).

[tegator80]

Not to be cocky but I don't foresee a problem with having maybe one more loss in the SEC and winning the regular season, unless we get the injury bug. The tournament is a tossup since a bubble team may get motivated.

To me the most important aspect for the rest of the season, besides remaining healthy, is to play well enough get a 1 or 2 seed in the tourney and hopefully in the south or east region. JMHO

[jcp]

We are going to win the conference this year.

[GatorRade]

If we win at Missouri, I really can't imagine anyway that Florida doesn't win the regular season. Even if we lose at Missouri, I'd still predict very likely Florida.

[gatorbogey]

"ARKANSASARKANSASARKANSASARKANSAS!"

[couldn't resist ;) ]

[InstiGATOR1]

I agree it is important to win the SEC this year and make it two out three years this group has won it. I also agree UAL looks the toughest problem on paper.

Still the key right now is to get that win up at AU. I am not sure how many people remember the game up their two years ago where UF won 45 to 40 and neither team could throw the ball in the ocean. UF shot 28.3% from the field and 19.2% from the arc in that win. 10-14 or 71.4% from the free throw line along with saved the day. Boynton, Wilbekin and Young should all remember that game and lead this team to being better mentally prepared to play there. The UAR game similarly should have this team realizing they can lose any game. EDIT, Murphy, Prather and Yeguete also played in that game at AU too.

A UMs loss at aTm this week would be helpful. A UK loss at UTn would also be helpful. UAL lost at AU, so they could in fact lose at LSU.

[themistocles]

Well, I feel quite confident in stating that if the Gators lose no more than 1 remaining game, they will win the regular SEC title.

The fact that two of the teams that are two games back, and one that is 3, all must face the Gators, and the Gators, even on the road, will be considerable favorites in each of those games, so, really, unless 5 starters get injured, it will not be very easy for the Gators to avoid winning this year's SEC regular season championship.

[co_gator89]

I dont like sounding cocky either, but looking at that schedule I honestly don't see more than maybe one loss. I think we will win the regular season fairly comfortably. As for the SEC tourney, I'd like to at least get to the title game and be in the same position Kentucky was in last year where even though they lost to Vandy, everyone and their grandmother knew Vandy wasn't better than UK. If we don't lose more than two games between now and the big dance we should be right there for a 1-2 seed with a pretty wide open field this year.

We have the best team in the SEC and most people will acknowledge that. I would like for our guys to leave no doubt. Even if we do drop one or two, I really don't see UK, Bama, or Ole Miss winning out.

[tampajack1]

At Missouri will be tough. They mighty be turning into a national title contender now that they are healthy and Oriaki is coming on.

[InstiGATOR1]

At Missouri will be tough. They mighty be turning into a national title contender now that they are healthy and Oriaki is coming on.

I agree that at UMo will be tough. I NEVER expect to win at UTn as win until we win their a few years in a row. Nor is losing at UK out of the question.

So UF needs a lose or two more for all of the other contenders.

[Bryan85]

I agree that @ Missouri will be tough. Actually, if UF wins it's next two, I think we're in good shape. Real good shape. However, the game after the big win, especially when on the road is dangerous. UF played a crappy Arky team right after wacking high flying Ole Miss. Bazzinga. Gators lose.

And how'd Arky do after having easily beaten #2 ranked UF? Still celebrating that win they go on the road and get wiped by an 8 win Vandy team. They scored 80 vs UF and 3 days later score 49 vs Vandy.

So Going to Aubs and then going to Missouri, who is probably laying for UF after that skull f*cking the Gators put on them back in January..... will be tough. Also, UF plays Sat-Tuesday, with both being road games vs Aubs and Missouri.

[gatorbogey]

i'm on edge for each and every game here on out. every and i mean EVERY time 'i' get complacent about a particular game and begin to think we have "this" game in the bag: we lose. [we lose a few when i'm not complacent too].

the title is certainly w/in our grasp. but the second we let up and think it is ours for the taking, that's when we get bitten.

[MadduxFanII]

Most of our fans probably didn't pay much attention to Missouri before this year, but I'm sort of a second-level Kansas Jayhawk, and I've seen a lot of great KU teams go into Columbia and fall to decidedly mediocre Missouri squads. That place can be a viper's nest in big games, and everyone in Columbia is going to be amped about this re-match.

We're still a better team, and not by an insignificant margin. As a general rule you're going to be OK choosing the superior team. Not an easy game though, especially with Bowers back.

[tampajack1]

Most of our fans probably didn't pay much attention to Missouri before this year, but I'm sort of a second-level Kansas Jayhawk, and I've seen a lot of great KU teams go into Columbia and fall to decidedly mediocre Missouri squads. That place can be a viper's nest in big games, and everyone in Columbia is going to be amped about this re-match.

We're still a better team, and not by an insignificant margin. As a general rule you're going to be OK choosing the superior team. Not an easy game though, especially with Bowers back.

I'm not sure that we are significantly better than Missouri. We have a big coaching advantage. However, they are athletic, have 6 or so players who can score, have a great point guard, and have a big man who is bigger and as strong as Patric Young.

[GatorLurker]

I will be shocked if the Gators don't win the SEC by at least two games.

When every player on the floor knows how to play the game at both ends it is an awesome thing to see. I just LOVE the way this team plays the game. It is basketball as it should be played. Just beautiful to watch unless you are the opposing team.

[MadduxFanII]

I'm not sure that we are significantly better than Missouri. We have a big coaching advantage. However, they are athletic, have 6 or so players who can score, have a great point guard, and have a big man who is bigger and as strong as Patric Young.

We murdered them by 30 points when they were here. Yes, yes, home game, no Bowers, and I don't imagine we're 30 points better than they are in a true talent sense. But our record is three games better than theirs, they've lost to teams we've massacred (LSU, A&M, Ole Miss) and if you believe in KenPom we're the best team in the country and they're the 38th.

I mean, I suppose one could disagree with "significantly" there, but if one's unwilling to say that we're significantly better than Missouri than one is basically unwilling to say we're significantly better than any top 40ish team, which strikes me as a dramatic underrating of this Florida team.

[GatorLurker]

Most of our fans probably didn't pay much attention to Missouri before this year, but I'm sort of a second-level Kansas Jayhawk, and I've seen a lot of great KU teams go into Columbia and fall to decidedly mediocre Missouri squads. That place can be a viper's nest in big games, and everyone in Columbia is going to be amped about this re-match.

We're still a better team, and not by an insignificant margin. As a general rule you're going to be OK choosing the superior team. Not an easy game though, especially with Bowers back.

Maybe we can convince Mizzou that the game is really a 1st Round NCAA game. They have a LONG history of not showing up for those.

[HALLGATOR]

I went on record as saying I thought we had an 80% chance of going undefeated in the conference. Obviously that is out of the window but as it stands right now I believe we have an excellent chance of not losing another conference game unless the injury bug bites us again.

[gtr2x]

Didn't realize Bama was doing so well. Every time I have watched them they are down or fighting for their lives. With that schedule they could actually make the big tourney.

[G8rNkoko]

We just gained another game on Old Miss. aTm beat them tonight as Elston Turner had another huge game scoring 37. He if you recalled was the player that scored 40 against KY in Rupp. Henderson for Old Miss got 10 points and fouled out.

[tommyuf21]

I went on record as saying I thought we had an 80% chance of going undefeated in the conference. Obviously that is out of the window but as it stands right now I believe we have an excellent chance of not losing another conference game unless the injury bug bites us again.

I think we'll drop one or two more. I can't see us finishing worse than 15-3 and that will be more than enough to win the regular season title by at least two games (keeping in mind that we'll have the head to head tie breaker against Ole Miss).

UK losing Noel definitely helps our cause in the rematch. I think Missouri has the best chance of beating us, as they seem like they're healthier and improving since we played them in January.

[Matthanuf06]

My guess is we lose 1. Fans almost always mess up their season predictions by focusing too much on individual quality of teams.

This is being crazy optimistic but lets say we have a 95% of winning against Vandy, Tenn, Auburn, 90% vs Alabama, 80% Ark, 70% vs UK and Mizzou we'd still only have a 30% shot at running the table.

[tebowharvin]

Mathematical ratings have us as a very high probability of winning the SEC. I am not worried.

[HALLGATOR]

I think we'll drop one or two more. I can't see us finishing worse than 15-3 and that will be more than enough to win the regular season title by at least two games (keeping in mind that we'll have the head to head tie breaker against Ole Miss).

UK losing Noel definitely helps our cause in the rematch. I think Missouri has the best chance of beating us, as they seem like they're healthier and improving since we played them in January.

It's very easy to stumble, especially on the road, so another loss or two wouldn't surprise me. However I believe we are the best team in the conference and one of the very best in the nation. Unless we run into another very hot team where we also are having an off night I can see us running the table. It's a very optimistic take but one that is within reason I believe.