North Korea detonates another nuke

[rampartgator]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/12/north-korea-nuclear-test_n_2666319.html

Raising tensions in the region, North Korea apparently conducted its third and largest test of a nuclear weapon yesterday. Understandably Japan and South Korea are the most worried about this, but even China--North Korea's patron and only friend in the world--is apparently upset and facing great pressure to act.

The timing seems suspicious to me, coming as it does on the eve of Obama's State of the Union address. Is this just another yowl for attention from N.K., or a serious threat?

Given North Korea's continuing experimentation with long range missiles, I think the latter is the case. But I also think that North Korea's leadership may be seriously overplaying its hand, and not just because of China's likely dispproval.

Barack Obama is now in his second term in office and is unconstrained by what his supporters on the left might prefer him to do. I think that Obama as much as anyone would prefer a continued uneasy peace in the region to all out war, but I also don't think that he is willing to continue a status quo of intensifying threats indefinitely.

Given Obama's now proven track record of preferring targeted assasinations to the mass-scale military actions chosen by his predecessors, I would not be at all surprised if a plan for some sort of targeted strike is already in the works to effect regime change in North Korea without the bloodshed of a large scale military action; and, if North Korea's leadership continues to force the issue, it would also not surprise me if such an event were to take place with China's knowledge or even participation. They are making far too much money off the American people to allow the cowboy dictator of a pissant country like N.K. to foul it up.

[MichiGator2002]

Well, it has been called a provocative act, which is I suppose a marginally useful substitute for actually acting in any way provoked.

[orangeblueorangeblue]

New war!! Yeahhhh!!!!

[rampartgator]

24 hours after the fact and you complain that nothing has been done about it. What would it take to satisfy you, an immediate Trident submarine strike?


Well, it has been called a provocative act, which is I suppose a marginally useful substitute for actually acting in any way provoked.

[rampartgator]

Not yet. ButI suspect that NK's current dictator needs to hire a reliable food taster.


New war!! Yeahhhh!!!!

[MichiGator2002]

24 hours after the fact and you complain that nothing has been done about it. What would it take to satisfy you, an immediate Trident submarine strike?

Oh look, false argument by hyperbole. Y'know, there are almost infinite degrees between what he actually said and a nuclear strike. Or maybe you don't, hell. But there are. Just within the arena of words, he could be less pusillanimous and a bit more uncompromising. It isn't provocative, it has provoked. Stop treating the concept of a North Korean nuclear umbrella as thought it is tolerable to American interests, or at least have the guts to admit that he (meaning Obama) is just a bit too above it all to worry about trifles like North Korea as a nuclear player with aspirations of first strike capability. Announce some kind of new round of training exercises with our South Korean allies in response. You can rattle a saber without actually unsheathing it.

[gatorev12]

^Agreed. Plenty of different ways to handle North Korea without attacking them.

[Minister_of_Information]

It would be ironic if we followed MacArthur's advice 60 years after the fact.

[MastaG8r]

Breitbart (http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2013/02/12/Remember-When-Obama-Promised-to-Eliminate-North-Korea-s-Nuclear-Weapons-Programs) says, remember when?

In 2008, then-candidate Barack Obama promised that he would eliminate North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. His campaign manifesto, Change We Can Believe In, described Obama’s North Korea policy, and the philosophy behind it, in great detail:

North Korea is an example where direct, tough diplomacy that lays out clear choices to rogue regimes for good and bad behavior can lead to change. When the United States was engaged, the pace of Pyongyang’s development of nuclear weapons was slowed; when we were not, it quickened. While there has been some promising progress, it’s important that all of North Korea’s claims are verified. If they are not, we should move quickly to reimpose sanctions that have been waived, and consider new restrictions going forward. As President, Barack Obama will work with diligence and determination with our friends and allied to end the threat of North Korea and to secure a lasting peace on the Korean peninsula.
Obama did not just leave such talk on the campaign trail. In his 2010 State of the Union address, Obama boasted of the success of his policy on North Korea:

Now, these diplomatic efforts have also strengthened our hand in dealing with those nations that insist on violating international agreements in pursuit of nuclear weapons. That's why North Korea now faces increased isolation, and stronger sanctions--sanctions that are being vigorously enforced.
He repeated the North Korea boast in his 2011 State of the Union address:

Because of a diplomatic effort to insist that Iran meet its obligations, the Iranian government now faces tougher sanctions, tighter sanctions than ever before. And on the Korean Peninsula, we stand with our ally South Korea, and insist that North Korea keeps its commitment to abandon nuclear weapons. (Applause.)
Yet today, on the day he is to give the first State of the Union address of his second term, North Korea has tested a nuclear bomb. Not only has Obama failed to eliminate the North Korean nuclear weapons program; he has also failed to discourage or deter it. So much for “tough diplomacy” from the Obama administration.

[MichiGator2002]

Thing is, South Korea eventually being cowed into submission as it realizes it stands alone under North Korea's nuclear umbrella, and China's and the Obama-led US's indifference is in and of itself a species of "peace" on the Korean peninsula. So... not a lie!

[Minister_of_Information]

Do we send IRBMs to South Korea as a counterweight?

[wargunfan]

These generals had to be about ten years old when the Korean war ended. I wonder how they earned all those medals? http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/106fsjhnmo6rp2mwyb.jpg

Could there be a worse gangster regime in the world today? Is this what "containment" looks like under the Obama administration?

[MastaG8r]

Thing is, South Korea eventually being cowed into submission as it realizes it stands alone under North Korea's nuclear umbrella, and China's and the Obama-led US's indifference is in and of itself a species of "peace" on the Korean peninsula. So... not a lie!You're right! How silly of me to forget the new truths. War is peace! Freedom is slavery! Ignorance is strength! Yes we can! Forward! We are the change we're waiting for! And these are not the droids you're looking for!

[The_Graygator]

24 hours after the fact and you complain that nothing has been done about it. What would it take to satisfy you, an immediate Trident submarine strike?


More like he wants a president who promises he's not going to allow NK to have a nuclear weapons program (Obama said this 2008), to actually to keep his campaign promises. Yet another lie by Obama.

I find it incredulous that NK is proliferating nuclear confrontation on the Pacific rim but you're attacking Republicans by suggesting they'd use nukes. There are way to have prevented this proliferation by NK besides nukes.

As usual, Obama's foreign policy collapses so it's time to blame the Republicans. :roll:

This is yet another Obama mess.

[gatorev12]

More like he wants a president who promises he's not going to allow NK to have a nuclear weapons program (Obama said this 2008), to actually to keep his campaign promises. Yet another lie by Obama.

I find it incredulous that NK is proliferating nuclear confrontation on the Pacific rim but you're attacking Republicans by suggesting they'd use nukes. There are way to have prevented this proliferation by NK besides nukes.

As usual, Obama's foreign policy collapses so it's time to blame the Republicans. :roll:

This is yet another Obama mess.


North Korea isn't an Obama mess--it's been a mess for the last 60+ years now. That being said, Obama's certainly guilty of over-promising at the campaign level in 2008 and being grossly naive in thinking the North Koreans will go along with what he commands.

Tough sanctions haven't deterred North Korea from doing what they want--and so long as the regime is in a position with its creature comforts, nothing will be done either. The truth of the matter is that "regime change" in North Korea most likely won't do much of anything.

Their population is ridiculously poor, completely uneducated, and used to living in feudal conditions. Expecting any type of representative government to step in the void is not going to end well. The South Koreans are the default entity most people assume would step in...except that the South Koreans themselves aren't exactly keen on the idea. Look at how expensive reunification has been for the Germans and multiply those costs x10.

[The_Graygator]

Sorry rev, but Bush wasn't cut any slack, and Obama won't be cut any slack either. heck, even I critiqued Bush about Nk on a couple of occasions.

I am not a lemming, a zombie, a blind and willing disciple to this socialist and I will not give him a pass like his mindless liberal automatons here do either.

Obama said in his 2008 campaign that he would end the NK nuclear program, and they've detonated another warhead.

Time for Obama to man-up and show he's a leader, but he won't do anything but wag his finger at NK.

[gatorev12]

I don't like Obama any more than you do--but North Korea has been a problem before he was President and will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future--including after he's left office.

Liberals blasted Bush for everything under the sun--and a lot of it being dumb stuff that was going on long before him. There's plenty of valid reasons to criticize Obama--we don't have to strain and stretch ourselves to make him any worse than he already is. Doing that would essentially be stooping down to their level and I think you're a lot better than needing to resort to that, IMHO.

If you're wanting to make the point that this is yet another example of Obama's hype machine failing to deliver, that's a valid critique. Certainly not going to defend his gross hubris in over-promising our country in 2008...nor liberals bending over backwards to pretend like Obama wasn't full of sh*t when he said 90% of the things on the campaign trail that any reasonable/rational person could see would be impossible.

[MastaG8r]

The South Koreans are the default entity most people assume would step in...except that the South Koreans themselves aren't exactly keen on the idea. Look at how expensive reunification has been for the Germans and multiply those costs x10.I agree that the German experience is the best study model for predicting how a Korean reunification might go. But why do you say it would be 10x more costly?

[gatorev12]

I agree that the German experience is the best study model for predicting how a Korean reunification might go. But why do you say it would be 10x more costly?

The East Germans actually had an educated population and a somewhat functioning economy. Their economy and standard of living was nowhere near the same as those in West Germany or Western Europe, but still light-years ahead of where North Korea is now.

And, despite all that, reunification has cost billions of dollars in aid, subsidies, and other government spending.

North Koreans today have no functioning economy, are severely malnourished, have little to no education, and the economic costs are going to be far, far greater to catch them up to South Korean standards.

[MastaG8r]

The East Germans actually had an educated population and a somewhat functioning economy. Their economy and standard of living was nowhere near the same as those in West Germany or Western Europe, but still light-years ahead of where North Korea is now.

And, despite all that, reunification has cost billions of dollars in aid, subsidies, and other government spending.

North Koreans today have no functioning economy, are severely malnourished, have little to no education, and the economic costs are going to be far, far greater to catch them up to South Korean standards.Okay. Good points, hard to argue with any of that. But in the long run wouldn't it still be a better outcome than the status quo? Didn't it all work out okay for Germany in the end? There isn't a school of thought over there that reunification was a mistake, is there? I'm asking, not challenging.

Maybe I'm revealing some ethno-prejudiced ignorance but it seems to me that Asians have simpler needs and lifestyles than Europeans, and that without taking too much of a hit on their own economy, the South Koreans could elevate the quality of life in the North to something that would be marginally decent by their standards.

I wonder how Japan would feel about that. Or Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. A reunified Korea would become a major economic and political power player.

[gatorev12]

Okay. Good points, hard to argue with any of that. But in the long run wouldn't it still be a better outcome than the status quo? Didn't it all work out okay for Germany in the end? There isn't a school of thought over there that reunification was a mistake, is there? I'm asking, not challenging.


In the long run, of course it'd be better for the North Koreans. And yes, almost anything is preferable to the status quo.

Not saying the concept of reunification is a bad idea by any means...just observing that the South Koreans themselves aren't exactly pushing for it after getting a firsthand look at the cost and expenses associated with German reunification.

In the short and medium term, you're asking millions of South Koreans to fork over billions of dollars in extra taxes a year--and for little immediate benefit. South Koreans are no different from anyone else: they'd obviously prefer lower taxes rather than higher ones.

Maybe I'm revealing some ethno-prejudiced ignorance but it seems to me that Asians have simpler needs and lifestyles than Europeans, and that without taking too much of a hit on their own economy, the South Koreans could elevate the quality of life in the North to something that would be marginally decent by their standards.


Perhaps. Really, any change would be positive for North Koreans. The status quo is essentially a feudal lifestyle of endless toil with almost no benefits. Electricity and running water would be luxuries to the vast majority of their population.

More likely though, any reunification would bring a flood of Northerners to Southern cities due to the better economic opportunities and better prospects. Another thing South Koreans are understandably wary about.

I wonder how Japan would feel about that. Or Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, etc. A reunified Korea would become a major economic and political power player.


South Korea alone is already one of the world's leading economies (I believe they're around #15 by most economic indicators), and the only Asian countries ahead of them are China and Japan. The cost of reunification will easily be an anchor on continued South Korean economic growth though--as it was for Germany during the 1990s.

Long-term though, as you're implying here, a reunified Korea would be an even bigger regional and world player since North Korea's natural resources have barely been tapped--and the North has what many people believe are the world's second-largest deposits of rare-earth minerals; but obviously lacks the money and the infrastructure to mine and sell them.

[wargunfan]

The East Germans actually had an educated population and a somewhat functioning economy. Their economy and standard of living was nowhere near the same as those in West Germany or Western Europe, but still light-years ahead of where North Korea is now.

And, despite all that, reunification has cost billions of dollars in aid, subsidies, and other government spending.

North Koreans today have no functioning economy, are severely malnourished, have little to no education, and the economic costs are going to be far, far greater to catch them up to South Korean standards.

Even if reunification were to happen today, it's already too late to help the adult population of North Korea. They will be a charity operation for South Korea. The hope lies with the next generation and beyond. I suggest reading "Escape from Camp 14" for a stark look at how the North Korean regime treats its own people.

[RealGatorFan]

We should invade NK and oust everyone wearing a military uniform. Only way and if we don't watch NK use a nuke on somebody not NK.

[Swampmaster]

hopefully, nk's psycho leaders don't launch a nuclear rocket toward the us anytime soon

[HALLGATOR]

We should invade NK and oust everyone wearing a military uniform. Only way and if we don't watch NK use a nuke on somebody not NK.

Do you think China is just going to sit by and watch an invasion happen? They didn't last time.

[gatorev12]

Do you think China is just going to sit by and watch an invasion happen? They didn't last time.

Different times back then though. As big a headache as North Korea is for them, there's certainly a case to be made that they'd do just that. A war with South Korea, the US, and Japan would be enormously expensive for them (it's largely irrelevant who would win in that conflict because the economic and social pain it'd cause the Chinese govt would most certainly not be worth it).

About the only use North Korea has for the Chinese currently is to act as a check on the rise of South Korea and Japan. Aside from that, they get precious little benefit for supporting them.

[Itssaul]

If NK attacks any ally of the US, I'm pretty sure we'd talk to china before annihilating NK. No motive to inhabit that land or save the locals. It'll be salted earth in days and poor Japan would get some radiation.

[HALLGATOR]

Different times back then though. As big a headache as North Korea is for them, there's certainly a case to be made that they'd do just that. A war with South Korea, the US, and Japan would be enormously expensive for them (it's largely irrelevant who would win in that conflict because the economic and social pain it'd cause the Chinese govt would most certainly not be worth it).

About the only use North Korea has for the Chinese currently is to act as a check on the rise of South Korea and Japan. Aside from that, they get precious little benefit for supporting them.

No doubt it was different but China always has to be figured into the equation when dealing with N. Korea. What they would do if we, along with S. Korea, attacked is a subject for a lot of speculation and not all of it good. The other thing is how close Seoul is to the border and the amount of damage the North could do to a city with around 10 million inhabitants.

[gatorev12]

No doubt it was different but China always has to be figured into the equation when dealing with N. Korea. What they would do if we, along with S. Korea, attacked is a subject for a lot of speculation and not all of it good. The other thing is how close Seoul is to the border and the amount of damage the North could do to a city with around 10 million inhabitants.

True enough, Hall.

IMHO, I seriously doubt China would leap to the defense of North Korea given how drastically the two countries have diverted from one another. Back in the early 1950s, both were hardline communist states and shared similar political ideologies and geopolitical goals.

Now, China's no longer committed to international communism and their leadership is focused on continuing their rapid social and economic rise. If anything, North Korea is an annoying younger stepbrother who's constantly asking for money, constantly being a nuisance for you and others, and you're constantly expected to deal with it--even when you'd rather be doing other things and, truthfully, have little influence over the situation anyway.

As with all things, it depends on the situation...but I'll say this: if North Korea provokes a war or does something stupid, I honestly don't see the Chinese getting involved. The US would go to them directly and say: "here's what we're doing, they clearly deserve it...are you going to be a problem?" China will likely make some noise at the UN or other diplomatic channels...but I highly doubt they commit troops to a conflict.

[HALLGATOR]

There is always the possibility China would love to see N. Korea, and it's starving citizens, become the problem of S. Korea. It would be interesting to know if any high level talks along this line have ever gained momentum. I don't doubt it may have been breached in a diplomatic way but I wonder if anything serious has ever come out of it.