UK vs UF game talk

[dailydoublecat]

As I sit here with my Gator buddy lets get this discussion of this BIG SEC game started. Lets look at the starters.

Wilbekin vs Harrow-edge to UF--he is your straw that stirs the drink as Pitino would say. He has made leaps and bounds in his progression. Harrow is on again/off again type. We need him to be elite, but he is just marginal.

Boynton vs Goodwin--big edge UF -Kenny struggled a bit tonight, but after some early struggles has had a great year. He is my favorite Gator. Goodwin is my least favorite Wildcat, but he is actually passing now so that is a bonus. He is still shooting less than 20% from 3, and is piss poor on the foul line. He can make some circus shots.

Rosario vs Mays- pretty big edge UF- Rosario has grown up in a big way with Florida. He was once a careless player but he has developed nicely. He is a great shooter, but can take it to the rack. Mays is a decent player, but nothing special. I worry about Rosario blowing right past him as he is only so-so athletic.

Murphy vs Poythress- edge UF---Murphy (who I hope is near 100% at game time) is a nightmare to defend. He has always had a great outside shot, but now is developing a post game. Alex is a enigma as I dont know why the light hasnt come on as he has the talent to be something special. Who know he could have 20 or he could have 2 on Tuesday.

Young vs Noel- slight edge UK-- Young needs to get the ball more as I think most will agree. He has continued to improve but needs to get a few more touches. Noel is something else on the defensive end and I have watched him get better and better. This will be a nice matchup. Will Young manhandle Noel? Will Noel make the Gators think about coming inside?

Prediction- UF 76 UK 62.
I have tickets to the game with my Gator buddy and I have run this game in the my head many, many times and I just dont see how Kentucky can win as much as it hurts me to type. I HATE this UK team as they are tough to watch, but we are getting better. I really believe that if Florida plays C+ ball or better they win. Here is to a GREAT game, in a GREAT atmosphere with no injuries. Look forward to it and may the respectful trash talk begin!!!

Jeff

[HALLGATOR]

Good way to start talking about this game Jeff. How is the Cat's bench?

[dailydoublecat]

Good way to start talking about this game Jeff. How is the Cat's bench?

Hmm good question. We have Cauley-Stein who I love. If he understood how good he could be--wow. Kyle Wiltjer who can make buckets, but is a defensive liabilty and a speed liabilty as well. The final one is Jarrod Polson who is a fiesty kid who likes to mix it up. Our bench is not bad believe it or not, just the whole UK team this year is just blah.

Jeff

[rounds]

Yeguete just had knee surgery.
Murph sprained ankle tonite.
Our legs are dead.
We got no chance.

[dailydoublecat]

Yeguete just had knee surgery.
Murph sprained ankle tonite.
Our legs are dead.
We got no chance.

Jesus give me a break---you might want to follow another sport or something! These are college kids that could play at a high level if the game was tomorrow! Murphy will be fine and you have a damn good team and I dont!

Jeff

[GatorsGators]

Yeguete just had knee surgery.
Murph sprained ankle tonite.
Our legs are dead.
We got no chance.http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_md1rnigM0w1r2q56co1_250.gif

[rserina]

Yeguete just had knee surgery.
Murph sprained ankle tonite.
Our legs are dead.
We got no chance.
Were you trying to write a Haiku or something? Because otherwise you missed on everything other than Yegeute.

[HALLGATOR]

Jesus give me a break---you might want to follow another sport or something! These are college kids that could play at a high level if the game was tomorrow! Murphy will be fine and you have a damn good team and I dont!

Jeff

I think that was written in jest but I don't know it for a fact.

[rounds]

Just forfeiting like you & Bogey.;)

[LoyalGatorFan]

Jeff, as I appreciate all of your posts and your neutral analysis of the game, and while I do think UF wins, we were also probably favored in every matchup against Arky and look what happened...parity abounds in college bkb..

[gatorbogey]

rounds is using the classic reverse jinx methology

[SwampFox]

Ok, enough of you lightweights........... :whoa:

Gators by 20...........lots of home-cookin' calls........

Prather makes the feinting goats forget about WY...at lease for 3 hours....... :laugh:

Our resident Cats start up another hireBilly.com campaign after taking Cal to the woodshed.

Rupps Rafters hits epic meltdown............again......

:joecool:

[REM08]

Here's why I think UF sweeps this year. There are WAY too many ifs involved in any explanation I can make for why UK will win.

In general, I agree with Jeff's player comparisons. Its worth pointing out that this means my comparisons have changed since we had this conversation before the season started (in UF's favor). I take Archie over Boynton once out of five games, I'd take Poythress over Murphy once in five also, same with Wiltjer and his matchup also - maybe once in three. Problem is for UK all these chances aren't going to line up, odds are.

I think Murphy is a good matchup against Wiltjer. Kyle is a weapon we can use to exploit some teams, but I don't see that happening at all with Florida. Poythress COULD be a matchup nightmare for Florida (without Yeguette). The problem is, as I alluded to earlier, he plays well about once in five games. He could be a monster if he ever gets to where he can have Noel-esque intensity.

The wildcards are foul trouble/injury for either team really, but especially Young/Murphy. Also the simple fact that its just 40 minutes and anything can happen.

[kellgator]

Does UK play any zone? And if so, is it effective? I haven't noticed, but I imagine they would in this game to keep Noel closer to the basket. Otherwise he will spend the entire night 25 feet from the basket defending the high screen action. My prediction is that if UK can play an effective zone then this game is close and could go either way. If they can't play zone then I think we win by 10 or more.

[HALLGATOR]

Right now I believe the Gators have the edge and should win at home. I am going to reserve any judgment on the last game of the season when we travel to Rupp. If indeed the Cats are going to make a decent showing in post-season play then they are going to have to get it together by then. I know they are looking better than they were and have the most potential, imo, of any team in the SEC other than the Gators.

[JaxLizard]

I think we will win by 15. Prather's play tonight makes me feel better. He played much more aggressively and looked to being close to what he was before the sprain. We need Kenny and Scottie to shoot better, especially against better opposition. If they don't this game and others like it will be too close for my comfort.

[rounds]

Katz looked killer AT Old Miss. Was that an aberration?

[rounds]

It's a good thing we don't depend on Kenny's 3 pt. shooting. Dang shot is so flat, I don't see how one ever goes down; zero margin of error.

[akaGatorhoops]

Yeguete just had knee surgery.
Murph sprained ankle tonite.
Our legs are dead.
We got no chance.

Nothing like some reverse psychology . . .

. . . or complete overreaction.

[akaGatorhoops]

Jeff -- Ill be at the game as well. Perhaps we meet up to say hi. Drop me a line

[gatorbogey]

eventually things will start to click for UK. like it does each year. sometimes it occurs sooner than typical. but UK has been improving steadily. and they have so much talent, it is scary. it just isn't mature yet.

i think Cal likes to be the one lying in the weeds. he seems to like to over-inflate the opposition, even if it isn't sincere half the time. it's part of the coachspeak that i feel he does just because he thinks he's suppose to. flatter the opposition, you know, to maybe get them a little over-confident.

he probably thinks he should win by 20+ if he can just get this group of players to just start playing like a cohesive team.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

As I sit here with my Gator buddy lets get this discussion of this BIG SEC game started. Lets look at the starters.

Wilbekin vs Harrow-edge to UF--he is your straw that stirs the drink as Pitino would say. He has made leaps and bounds in his progression. Harrow is on again/off again type. We need him to be elite, but he is just marginal.

Boynton vs Goodwin--big edge UF -Kenny struggled a bit tonight, but after some early struggles has had a great year. He is my favorite Gator. Goodwin is my least favorite Wildcat, but he is actually passing now so that is a bonus. He is still shooting less than 20% from 3, and is piss poor on the foul line. He can make some circus shots.

Rosario vs Mays- pretty big edge UF- Rosario has grown up in a big way with Florida. He was once a careless player but he has developed nicely. He is a great shooter, but can take it to the rack. Mays is a decent player, but nothing special. I worry about Rosario blowing right past him as he is only so-so athletic.

Murphy vs Poythress- edge UF---Murphy (who I hope is near 100% at game time) is a nightmare to defend. He has always had a great outside shot, but now is developing a post game. Alex is a enigma as I dont know why the light hasnt come on as he has the talent to be something special. Who know he could have 20 or he could have 2 on Tuesday.

Young vs Noel- slight edge UK-- Young needs to get the ball more as I think most will agree. He has continued to improve but needs to get a few more touches. Noel is something else on the defensive end and I have watched him get better and better. This will be a nice matchup. Will Young manhandle Noel? Will Noel make the Gators think about coming inside?

Prediction- UF 76 UK 62.
I have tickets to the game with my Gator buddy and I have run this game in the my head many, many times and I just dont see how Kentucky can win as much as it hurts me to type. I HATE this UK team as they are tough to watch, but we are getting better. I really believe that if Florida plays C+ ball or better they win. Here is to a GREAT game, in a GREAT atmosphere with no injuries. Look forward to it and may the respectful trash talk begin!!!

Jeff

Great analysis Jeff,
But then we bring in Frasier and Prather off the bench and Kentucky has nothing to match up with that. I have seen Kentucky play quite a few times this year and I think our defense will give you fits. You have no inside game and we defend the arc very well, UK length and athleticism has killed us in prior years but I think we actually have the edge this year for the first time in a long time. I am guessing that Rosario has a career night, I just feel like he is ready to explode and Prather played pretty well versus UK in the SEC tourney last year. Here's hoping Young finally gets a chance to play without some little dude dragging him to the floor every time he gets the ball and he makes the Noell eat elbows a couple of times. Young played pretty well against Davis last year and he tends to really show up against UK. I'm excited for this team. Beating UK would give them a boost of confidence even though UK's down. Kind of like beating Tennessee at Tennessee would do.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

Katz looked killer AT Old Miss. Was that an aberration?

They were up 16 in the second-half and got the lead cut to one. They pulled it out but were hardly spectacular.

[Gatorphilly]

I think the Gators win in Gainesville, but I'm not sure about at Rupp. I just hope Yeguette is back for the SEC tourney, so he can get a few games in before the ncaa tourney begins.

[REM08]

Great analysis Jeff,
But then we bring in Frasier and Prather off the bench and Kentucky has nothing to match up with that. I have seen Kentucky play quite a few times this year and I think our defense will give you fits. You have no inside game and we defend the arc very well, UK length and athleticism has killed us in prior years but I think we actually have the edge this year for the first time in a long time. I am guessing that Rosario has a career night, I just feel like he is ready to explode and Prather played pretty well versus UK in the SEC tourney last year. Here's hoping Young finally gets a chance to play without some little dude dragging him to the floor every time he gets the ball and he makes the Noell eat elbows a couple of times. Young played pretty well against Davis last year and he tends to really show up against UK. I'm excited for this team. Beating UK would give them a boost of confidence even though UK's down. Kind of like beating Tennessee at Tennessee would do.

I'll agree with you Florida has the edge this time - just not in length and athleticism. UK brings more size off the bench (Wiltjer/WCS) and UF the two you mention. Without Yeguette, this is probably the most even bench-wise the teams have been since 2010.

[dailydoublecat]

Does UK play any zone? And if so, is it effective? I haven't noticed, but I imagine they would in this game to keep Noel closer to the basket. Otherwise he will spend the entire night 25 feet from the basket defending the high screen action. My prediction is that if UK can play an effective zone then this game is close and could go either way. If they can't play zone then I think we win by 10 or more.

Calipari despises zone as I do as well. If we are 100% in trouble than we will play zone, but I think he'd rather lose than play zone. We are so lethargic on defense zone would make it worse plus you have too many great shooters.
Jeff

[dailydoublecat]

I think the Gators win in Gainesville, but I'm not sure about at Rupp. I just hope Yeguette is back for the SEC tourney, so he can get a few games in before the ncaa tourney begins.

I hope you get him back as well!! The one positive is my Cats should play loose as we have nothing to lose!! Vitale calling the game hell yes!!
Jeff

[HALLGATOR]

I wish this game was on the weekend instead of during the week. Still expect a sold out O-Dome but this is just a prime weekend matchup to me.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

I wish this game was on the weekend instead of during the week. Still expect a sold out O-Dome but this is just a prime weekend matchup to me.

i Agree, Hall, it sucks, I have a meeting until 9 o'clock Tuesday night but the DVR will be set and I'm going on Internet silence until I get home to watch this game,. Sucks that our game at UK will be on a weekend, on senior night, in primetime but money drives the bus.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

As I sit here with my Gator buddy lets get this discussion of this BIG SEC game started. Lets look at the starters.

Wilbekin vs Harrow-edge to UF--he is your straw that stirs the drink as Pitino would say. He has made leaps and bounds in his progression. Harrow is on again/off again type. We need him to be elite, but he is just marginal.

Boynton vs Goodwin--big edge UF -Kenny struggled a bit tonight, but after some early struggles has had a great year. He is my favorite Gator. Goodwin is my least favorite Wildcat, but he is actually passing now so that is a bonus. He is still shooting less than 20% from 3, and is piss poor on the foul line. He can make some circus shots.

Rosario vs Mays- pretty big edge UF- Rosario has grown up in a big way with Florida. He was once a careless player but he has developed nicely. He is a great shooter, but can take it to the rack. Mays is a decent player, but nothing special. I worry about Rosario blowing right past him as he is only so-so athletic.

Murphy vs Poythress- edge UF---Murphy (who I hope is near 100% at game time) is a nightmare to defend. He has always had a great outside shot, but now is developing a post game. Alex is a enigma as I dont know why the light hasnt come on as he has the talent to be something special. Who know he could have 20 or he could have 2 on Tuesday.

Young vs Noel- slight edge UK-- Young needs to get the ball more as I think most will agree. He has continued to improve but needs to get a few more touches. Noel is something else on the defensive end and I have watched him get better and better. This will be a nice matchup. Will Young manhandle Noel? Will Noel make the Gators think about coming inside?

Prediction- UF 76 UK 62.
I have tickets to the game with my Gator buddy and I have run this game in the my head many, many times and I just dont see how Kentucky can win as much as it hurts me to type. I HATE this UK team as they are tough to watch, but we are getting better. I really believe that if Florida plays C+ ball or better they win. Here is to a GREAT game, in a GREAT atmosphere with no injuries. Look forward to it and may the respectful trash talk begin!!!

Jeff

Jeff, you are sandbagging us. UK has a big advantage at the center.

[BengermanV]

I'm not sure the home game will be close (it very well may be, but I know Billy will have our guys ready to play in the biggest game of the year), but I've predicted all season long we fall at Rupp. We haven't been great away from the O'Dome this year, and Rupp is probably one of the most difficult places to play in all of college hoops. Not to mention, the UK team will have had more time to mature and gel, and the Gators have already reached that point.

I say we pull out to a big early lead, and then UK will pull back within 5 or 10 and makes the game really interesting going down to the wire before we start to pull away a little bit.

71-62 UF wins

[InstiGATOR1]

In this game I worry about size.

1. I worry that Cauley is 7' tall and Noel and Wiltjer are 6'10" tall compared to UF having only Young and Murphy and the next guy off the bench is Prather at 6'6" tall.

2. I worry that Goodwin is 6'5" tall and UF does not have big guards to defend him.

I expect UF to win, but t size is my worry in this game.

[gatorbogey]

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

[jmoliver]

I still think it is a split with the home team winning. The big key is the gators getting any production from Young. Yesterday he was a non-factor. The guy just hasn't improved.

[rtgator]

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

These are all HS rankings. Experience and chemistry give Gators the edge.

[gatorbogey]

These are all HS rankings. Experience and chemistry give Gators the edge.

i know. trying to counter the sandbagging mojo of Cal and some of the wildcat fans. :joecool: w/ the 5-star talent on UK they are a LOCK, i tell ya, to hoist the crystal again and gator fans who think otherwise are merely being foolishly homeristic :whoa::lie:

[REM08]

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

As of right now, UK has some 5 star players who aren't playing like 5 star players yet. Harrow, Goodwin and especially Poythress. All three got outplayed yesterday by former walk-on unranked Jarod Polson. IMO stars only show a players perceived ceiling and not how well they should be contributing right away.

[bullish]

DDCat, I appreciate you pumping our team. Kentucky will bring their A game to Gainseville as always and the Gators better be ready. It will require the Gators to run their offense to perfection with a high percentage 3pt shots. This is mandatory due to us having a weak inside game. Of course I hope the Gators play their best due to this not being Miss St. w/6 scholly players. Our chemistry and defense will help but we have to have a good shooting night. To add to the suspense, the pressure is on the Gators, if we don't beat the Kats at home, it will probably be another sweep. If this happens we will lose confidence and road victories will be a pipe dream. If we win we know we can get it done when needed. No Pressure.

Florida 67 Kentucky 65

Gators get it done but barely. Good luck to the Kats, but Kill the Kats in the Dome GATORS!

[60sDCGator]

I would feel a little better about this game if Young had a presence inside offensively. Noel will make it very tough for us to do much if anything inside, so we better be shooting the ball well from the outside to loosen things up a bit. He had 12 blocked shots against two very good inside players at Ole Miss and we are basically down to just one. We looked great last night, but Miss. State is awful, so don't let that game fool anyone.

We were a little thin inside heading into the season, so obviously the loss of Yeguete is huge right now and we really do not have anyone else left. That being said, I believe in Billy and he will find a way to adjust his offense using 3 or 4 guards at times and rotating Young & Murphy, but Yeguete's length, rebounding ability and non stop motor are going to very hard to replace against good teams, much like what happened last year when was injured. This UK team is obviously not nearly as good as last years squad, but they are getting better & better and we are not as good without Yeguete, so watch out. If Frazier continues to play & shoot well and rebound and Prather continues to improve and get 100% healthy and we don't have another freakish night where the whole team had an off night, we have a chance to hold on until we can get Yeguete back. I guess you can see how important I believe Yeguete is to this team. I do believe we will win at home, but it could be very difficult to beat UK at Rupp by the time that game rolls around, but we'll see.

By the way, isn't college basketball, especially this year in the SEC a strange animal. We got blown out by a very average Arkansas team at their place and then they travel to play another average at best Vandy team and get beat by 18. Arkansas earlier this year got beat by 21 at South Carolina and then we hammered South Carolina at home the very next game. The fact that so many average teams every year are almost unbeatable at home has always been strange to me. I think it sometimes has a lot more to do with the the refs than the venue in my opinion.

[InstiGATOR1]

looking at 'talent' - you still have to give the advantage to UK in that regard. of course, UF has some 'developed talent' - especially w/ Wilbekin. Murphy can probably match up well in skills, but not in athleticism.

UK pretty much can play w/ 5-star talent at almost every position....gives them a big advantage. let's not lose sight in that.

at the 5: UK has 5* #1 rated center Noel or 4* #15 rated Center Cauley, Gators have 5* #5 rated PF Young .... big advantage to UK
at the 4: UK has 5* #3 rated SF Poythress or 5* #3 rated C Wiltjer or Cauley, Gators have 4* #12 rated PF Murphy .... advantage UK
at the 3: UK has Poythress or 3* unranked SG Mays (via NCSU & Wright St), Gators have 4* #9 rated SG Rosario or 4* #11 ranked SF Prather .... advantage UF
at the 2: UK has 5* #3 rated SG Goodwin, Gators have 5* #4 rated SG Boynton ... even
at the 1: UK has 5* #8 rated PG (from NCSU) Harrow, Gators counter with 2* unranked Wilbekin ... big advantage UK

What you claim you are going to look at talent and then you post a bunch of junk about stars???????? Among the fallacies you are in jail to with this are:

1. Even if the recruiting gurus knew enough to rank a single year with 100% accuracy, they do not even in the least claim that those ranking are comparable over different class years. That is nobody knows if the number 10 guy from 2012 is better or worse than the number 15 guy from 2011.

2. You are throwing away information. You apparently chose to get ranks from some particular site. There is a site that takes rankings from 4 or 5 recruiting services and puts out a composite index. If you do not go to RSCI to get your rankings you are being arbitrary and capricious and throwing away information you are claiming is important.

3. Talent is ability level and ceiling, not some stars or ranking number. So you in fact did not mention talent at all in your post.

4. As a UF fan, you certainly should realize that Wilbekin did not go through the recruiting service evaluation process so claiming that he was "2* and unranked" is additional foolishness. Had they known he was signing the year he did, the recruiting services would have evaluated him and put an actual number of stars and a rank next to his name. If you are going to use their numbers like they are Gospel, you should recognize that Wilbekin's numbers were place holders for a kid who was on their radar, but not expected to sign the year he did.

So if you wanted to do this you could look at various basketball talents, some So

1. Shooting talent, you have numbers for this ie shooting percentages.
2. Facilitating talent, you have numbers for this too, ie assist and turnovers though not "hockey" assists.
3. Athletic talent, we do not have much data here but you can see who runs and jumps better.
4. Height and bulk, we have decent data here, but you should cross check what the schools say against the measurement data set on draftexpress.com.
5. Defensive talent, we do not have much data on this either, so you have to go by subjective observation on this one.

So if you were to do this, then Wilbekin is a more talented shooter, a better facilitator, appears to be more athletic, even in size and a better defender than Harrow. That means Wilbekin is a more talented basketball player than Harrow. You see such an analysis has nothing to do with rankings although the rankings guys are implicitly trying to do the same thing.

[SwampFox]

I would feel a little better about this game if Young had a presence inside offensively. Noel will make it very tough for us to do much if anything inside, so we better be shooting the ball well from the outside to loosen things up a bit. He had 12 blocked shots against two very good inside players at Ole Miss and we are basically down to just one. We looked great last night, but Miss. State is awful, so don't let that game fool anyone.

We were a little thin inside heading into the season, so obviously the loss of Yeguete is huge right now and we really do not have anyone else left. That being said, I believe in Billy and he will find a way to adjust his offense using 3 or 4 guards at times and rotating Young & Murphy, but Yeguete's length, rebounding ability and non stop motor are going to very hard to replace against good teams, much like what happened last year when was injured. This UK team is obviously not nearly as good as last years squad, but they are getting better & better and we are not as good without Yeguete, so watch out. If Frazier continues to play & shoot well and rebound and Prather continues to improve and get 100% healthy and we don't have another freakish night where the whole team had an off night, we have a chance to hold on until we can get Yeguete back. I guess you can see how important I believe Yeguete is to this team. I do believe we will win at home, but it could be very difficult to beat UK at Rupp by the time that game rolls around, but we'll see.

By the way, isn't college basketball, especially this year in the SEC a strange animal. We got blown out by a very average Arkansas team at their place and then they travel to play another average at best Vandy team and get beat by 18. Arkansas earlier this year got beat by 21 at South Carolina and then we hammered South Carolina at home the very next game. The fact that so many average teams every year are almost unbeatable at home has always been strange to me. I think it sometimes has a lot more to do with the the refs than the venue in my opinion.

You might want to revisit Young's stats from last year's games against better UK personnel..........and then, reassess.

[InstiGATOR1]

You might want to revisit Young's stats from last year's games against better UK personnel..........and then, reassess.

It really is remarkable how much people have missed how well Young has stepped up against other big name centers in his career.

[rserina]

In this game I worry about size.

1. I worry that Cauley is 7' tall and Noel and Wiltjer are 6'10" tall compared to UF having only Young and Murphy and the next guy off the bench is Prather at 6'6" tall.

2. I worry that Goodwin is 6'5" tall and UF does not have big guards to defend him.

I expect UF to win, but t size is my worry in this game.
Not sure a 6'5" guard being matched up with good 6'2" defenses is that big of a concern. It isn't like he will be posting up Boynton and Wilbekin. And given his discretion on the perimeter, that doesn't bother me as much either.

Size in then post is a little challenging, but only once you get to that third guy. And again none of their guys are great post threats offensively, so the biggest obstacle becomes their ability to protect the rim. But that is where increased floor spacing really helps. Put Frazier at the four next to Young and they have to go small. Play Murphy at the five and those bigs have to chase you out to the arc.

[gatorlife]

If Billy plays Murphy at the 5 with 4 guards against Noel, would that draw Noel out of the paint to have to guard the 3 point line?

[CFITB]

If Billy plays Murphy at the 5 with 4 guards against Noel, would that draw Noel out of the paint to have to guard the 3 point line?

I would think that Cal would have Wiltjer or Cauley-Stein guard Murphy in that scenario. Auburn tried to draw Noel out and it worked to a degree so I hope Cal finds a way to keep Nerlens under the basket.

[richardtangeman]

Determinants are bench depth and speed. UF must hustle upcourt on O and D. UK has equal physical speed; but appears youth of UK are not as relaxed in transiting 94 feet as fast as possible because of their youth. UK appears to use their speed of foot and quickness of reaction far better on D. To date UK's bench looks to be a better half court scoring team. UF needs to get out fast at start of halfs due to the lack of bench numbers because of injury impact. Believe Prather will be near 100% physically. Guards and Prather must rebound, particularly long 3 pt rebounds on defense. Court comfort should help gators handle potential UK runs. Hope Young will shot taking his body into UK's height. Go Gators...Work 'em silly.

[rserina]

I would think that Cal would have Wiltjer or Cauley-Stein guard Murphy in that scenario. Auburn tried to draw Noel out and it worked to a degree so I hope Cal finds a way to keep Nerlens under the basket.
What interests me is how Calipari plays it when Murphy is at the five with Frazier or Prather at the four. Without Yeguete, Murphy and Young will play even less together, meaning that you not only have to account for Murphy spacing the floor, but another post player, too. That could legitimately be five three-point threats on the floor at a time.

So, does Calipari go small with Poythress at the four, which would enable you to match quickness on the perimeter? Or does he stay big? Lots of complications with so little film since Yeguete went out. I suspect he revisits the tournament game from last year to see how we attacked with a similar lineup. It really opened things up from the arc and on the pick and roll, though we got killed on the glass and at the free throw line.

[InstiGATOR1]

Not sure a 6'5" guard being matched up with good 6'2" defenses is that big of a concern. It isn't like he will be posting up Boynton and Wilbekin. And given his discretion on the perimeter, that doesn't bother me as much either.

Size in then post is a little challenging, but only once you get to that third guy. And again none of their guys are great post threats offensively, so the biggest obstacle becomes their ability to protect the rim. But that is where increased floor spacing really helps. Put Frazier at the four next to Young and they have to go small. Play Murphy at the five and those bigs have to chase you out to the arc.

I agree. The real issue is what do you do with the UK 4/5 backups. Certainly in the case of Cauley an argument can be made for having a guy like D. Walker just hack him if he gets the ball down low.

[sec1]

i think noel will shut down young and murphy will have a good game but we will miss Yeguette on D for sure .. UK is athletic enough to give us problems , we will win a very close one if we can make our free throws....

[InstiGATOR1]

i think noel will shut down young and murphy will have a good game but we will miss Yeguette on D for sure .. UK is athletic enough to give us problems , we will win a very close one if we can make our free throws....

Young scored in double figures every game and totaled 43 points in 3 games against UK and Davis last year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/51329/year/2012/patric-young

Noel is of course so much better than Davis that of course he will shut down Young. Good grief.

[UFSECKINGS]

We're at home.. UF don't play around at home.

[UFSECKINGS]

Keep a hand in Wiltjers face... Cannot let him have open 3's

[fox]

Not much mystery this season. We win at home on energy and hot shooting. Lose a close one at UK on Senior day.

[REM08]

If Young is in the game, Noel can guard him and sag off anytime he's near the perimeter. If Murphy is at the 5, its another story. Noel will be forced to guard him wherever he's at. This means he'll be pulled away from the basket. The only other option is zoning.

I don't think Noel will "shut down" Young. But I do expect him to guard him better than Davis did. Davis wasn't nearly the defender (on ball) that Noel is. Noel is also surprisingly good at dealing with bigs that have a lot more weight on them than he does. That being said, I don't see Noel blocking Young's hook shots in the lane. Young is wide enough he should be able to get good enough separation to prevent that. He hit those all day over Davis also.

[ufgator4ever]

Not much mystery this season. We win at home on energy and hot shooting. Lose a close one at UK on Senior day.

Correct. Except now it's Sophomore day.

[Brewski]

Young scored in double figures every game and totaled 43 points in 3 games against UK and Davis last year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/51329/year/2012/patric-young

Noel is of course so much better than Davis that of course he will shut down Young. Good grief.

That guy doesn't let stats get in his way. Always the doom and gloom. :joecool:

[60sDCGator]

Hey SwampFox, that was last year my man. Different Gator team and different Kentucky team, therefore, what Young did last year is like comparing Apples to Oranges. I like Patric and a lot of what he brings, but offensive skills around the basket are not among them. His one little move across the middle of the lane hook shot over his tight shoulder will most likely be swatted away by Noel the majority of the time. I hope he does stay another year, because he needs it to work on his offensive moves around the basket to succeed in the NBA. I was talking to Bill Koss recently at a local Gator Club meeting and he agreed that while he likes a lot of Patric's game, he said that he does not have very good footwork; not real good hands and really needs some work on his overall offensive skills. That being said, he may have a big night Tuesday and I'm hoping he does, because I believe we may need him to be at his best, which by the way, he was not against Arkansas. Arkansas went right at him, succeeded in getting him extremely frustrated early on and in the process took him right out of the game.

[regurgigator]

It really is remarkable how much people have missed how well Young has stepped up against other big name centers in his career.

Yep.

I'm not really concerned about Noel possibly blocking Young's shot once or twice (which could happen although Young is pretty good at creating some space, if needed, to get his shots off). I'm much more worried about Noel blocking a half dozen or more of our guards' shots if they try to take it all the way to the rim even though Noel is waiting there.



Young's production is usually more dependent on how the defense plays us and on how adept we are at getting him the ball in position than on whether Young is individually "bringing it" or not.

[tommyuf21]

Yep.

I'm not really concerned about Noel possibly blocking Young's shot once or twice (which could happen although Young is pretty good at creating some space, if needed, to get his shots off). I'm much more worried about Noel blocking a half dozen or more of our guards' shots if they try to take it all the way to the rim even though Noel is waiting there.


Young's production is usually more dependent on how the defense plays us and on how adept we are at getting him the ball in position than on whether Young is individually "bringing it" or not.

You would think that after watching him do this for the past several months, our guards will get the message that one on one is not the way to go.

[gatorbogey]

i sorta want noel to come over to the guards on the drive - that will leave young open underneath for the flush, if properly dished to him (and he doesn't fumble)...
last year, davis would block from the weakside (right)?

[orangeblueorangeblue]

Correct. Except now it's Sophomore day.

Pretty good.

[REM08]

i sorta want noel to come over to the guards on the drive - that will leave young open underneath for the flush, if properly dished to him (and he doesn't fumble)...
last year, davis would block from the weakside (right)?

Davis blocked from the weakside, but he also had better defenders around him who allowed him to gamble. Noel doesn't have that. He usually sticks closer to the guy he's guarding as long as possible. If you can get him in the air though, then you can easily dish to his man. He used to be really bad about this but has gotten better. Still happens though. I imagine him being pretty pumped for this game and wonder if he'll be able to contain that energy and not try and do too much.

Also, don't get the "sophomore day" senior day comments. I guess its possible one year we won't have a senior, but it hasn't happened yet and I dont' see our roster allowing it for the next few years. Now, the senior may not be a big time contributor, but it'll be their fourth year in college alright...

[orangeblueorangeblue]

You don't get the easy joke?

[orangeblueorangeblue]

Or were you actually taking the joke literally?

[deebo65]

Yeguete just had knee surgery.
Murph sprained ankle tonite.
Our legs are dead.
We got no chance.

Leon Orr Fan Club is that you????

[don23lucia]

Insti,

Hit the nail on the head in regards to talent and the stars that are givin for high school.
Repped

Jeff,

I agree with your assetment of talent on the floor. I expect this to be a good competitive game UK should come ready to play and make a statement.

I think a big factor for both teams will be if any of the bigs get into any type of foul trouble early could swing this game.

I wonder who Noel will guard and who the heck is wiltjer going to be D'ing up on the floor that could be a problem or them and us depending on who is Ding him up.

[MichaelJoeWilliamson]

Young scored in double figures every game and totaled 43 points in 3 games against UK and Davis last year.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/51329/year/2012/patric-young

Noel is of course so much better than Davis that of course he will shut down Young. Good grief.

But Young did not have good rebounding in any of the three games last year.

Young's rebounding and defense will be the key in this game.

[Brewski]

If Rosario and Murph and Fraiser get hot from behind the arc, Noel and Young's rebounding is less of a factor. If we get cold outside and have to penetrate, then Noel becomes a bigger factor. At home, I'm hoping the threes are falling and the big guys just get to watch the show!

[REM08]

If Rosario and Murph and Fraiser get hot from behind the arc, Noel and Young's rebounding is less of a factor. If we get cold outside and have to penetrate, then Noel becomes a bigger factor. At home, I'm hoping the threes are falling and the big guys just get to watch the show!

If you guys get hot from 3, nothing will be a factor. This UK team isn't prepared to deal with that. Don't have intense defense on the perimeter. You guys will get open 3's much of the game. If you hit a good % of them, then I'll just have to hope you've cooled off before heading the return trip to Rupp.


Also of note, on the SECteleconference, Frank Martin says you need good guard play to hang with Florida. If this is the case, UK is in trouble. You guys might not have been watching closely enough to see how much UK has been struggling in this respect recently. Most people have just focused on Noel's effectiveness, but our guard play is really hurting. Last game Goodwin ended with 17 minutes and Polson had 20.

[SmootyGator]

If Rosario and Murph and Fraiser get hot from behind the arc, Noel and Young's rebounding is less of a factor. If we get cold outside and have to penetrate, then Noel becomes a bigger factor. At home, I'm hoping the threes are falling and the big guys just get to watch the show!

If we get hot from behind the arc, we will beat anyone, especially Kentucky. I think we just need to have an average night from 3-point land, and we will win by 10-15.

[Gator_Joe]

Insti,



I think a big factor for both teams will be if any of the bigs get into any type of foul trouble early could swing this game.



If Noel is not in the game, we run off with this one easy. His defense is the only thing that's kept them from losing alot more games than they have. His defense is also the reason they have won a few games that they shouldn't have. He is the biggest upside Kentucky has, imagine if he had not chose UK. It would be the ugliest season since the Billy Gilly days.

[HALLGATOR]

I think some of our fans look at Young's stat lines and don't see the rest of the things he does. Patric has been here 3 years and has played against some of the best centers around. I look for a good matchup between him and Noel, a player I like.

[regurgigator]

Also of note, on the SECteleconference, Frank Martin says you need good guard play to hang with Florida. If this is the case, UK is in trouble. You guys might not have been watching closely enough to see how much UK has been struggling in this respect recently. Most people have just focused on Noel's effectiveness, but our guard play is really hurting. Last game Goodwin ended with 17 minutes and Polson had 20.

I think this is true when we bring the great defense.

Like Arizona (very good guards, mediocre bigs) will always be a good test for us this year (maybe we'll meet them again - although I don't think we brought the great defense against them).

[gatorbogey]

Leon Orr Fan Club is that you????

:laugh:
that's great!:yes:

[don23lucia]

Goodwin must not have read the scouting report on us taking charges

[1bobcat]

Sure hope Noel is okay and gets back quickly. He is a good player and he is easy to like, ie he isn't an ass. Hopefully it's just a bruised knee and nothing worse than that.

[ugaGator]

How about Patric tonight!! Monster!

Prather too! What athleticism!

[REM08]

Florida played great. I was REALLY impressed with Wilbekin. I know Prather played great, but IMO Scotty was the MVG.

[SwampFox]

Florida played great. I was REALLY impressed with Wilbekin. I know Prather played great, but IMO Scotty was the MVG.

Yep, when Scotty plays efficiently, this team is hard to beat. The matchup at Rupp will be a bit tighter, but I expect the same outcome.

[gatorbogey]

appreciate your input on the boards here, REM, the wildcat fans that visit know your basketball and add alot of value to the discussions. we may give you grief from time to time, but when you hold the current nat'l title, you can take the losses in stride more easily.

[bullish]

Prather did play great, but I believe Patrick Young almost singlehandily controlled the middle, rebounds, blocks, charges and steals. He even got 12 pts I believe. I bet Willie Cauley thought who was that on the block. Welcome to the little Man Mountain. LOL
Scottie played great, if he would have hit a few more shots in close I would agree he was MVP. His defense is uncanny. If you are a guard playing him, you better have a good handle.

[sec1]

i was wrong Young played great tonight and Noel was not a big factor , Prather and Scottie played great as well ....

[gtr2x]

Props to everybody, but if we are giving out laurels, I'd start with Young. Stats, don't always tell the story but tonight they did. He clearly was motivated to play against Noel and won the matchup imo. Cant recall him with so many blocks and rebounds. 11 rbs and 4 blocks and it seemed like he had even more.

[sec1]

i agree..

[rserina]

One thing I thought was essentially is that we spaced the floor, but didn't settle for threes. We only took 14 treys to 39 twos. We moved the ball efficiently (17 assists on 26 made baskets against 10 turnovers) and got to the rim or into the post when those shotblockers were out high guarding Murphy on the arc or the pick and roll stuff.

[dalwood13]

One thing I thought was essentially is that we spaced the floor, but didn't settle for threes. We only took 14 treys to 39 twos. We moved the ball efficiently (17 assists on 26 made baskets against 10 turnovers) and got to the rim or into the post when those shotblockers were out high guarding Murphy on the arc or the pick and roll stuff.

Great ball movement tonight. Some careless turnovers in the first half but cleaned it up in the 2nd half and coasted to victory.

[HALLGATOR]

One thing I thought was essentially is that we spaced the floor, but didn't settle for threes. We only took 14 treys to 39 twos. We moved the ball efficiently (17 assists on 26 made baskets against 10 turnovers) and got to the rim or into the post when those shotblockers were out high guarding Murphy on the arc or the pick and roll stuff.

This is a good point and it may have caught them a bit off guard.

[TampaGatorFan]

Points in the paint, folks...points in the paint.

[60sDCGator]

I was wrong as well. I never thought we would lose at home, but with Yeguete out, I was a little concerned about Patric as the lone ranger going up against Noel offensively. I was not concerned about his defense, but was looking for Noel to be more of a factor for them as a shot blocker. Patric stepped up, stayed out of foul trouble, which was key and played very well tonight. However the major factor for us tonight in my opinion was our tenacious team defense and the play of our guards, plus the outstanding play of our X factor off the bench in Casey Prather. I thought he was a the player of the game for us tonight considering his overall play on offense, defense and rebounding. We have all come to expect good play out of our starters, but Prather & Frazier have both really stepped up their games since Yeguete went out.