Sagarin, Pomeroy, Lunardi, ESPN BPI Updates 2/4/2013

[Osiris_DPM]

Sagarin

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/newpublius/Sagarin2-4-2013_zps588e445d.jpg

Pomeroy

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/newpublius/Pomeroy2-4-2013_zps0284f5a3.jpg

ESPN BPI

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/newpublius/ESPNBPI2-4-2013_zpsc5eb461c.jpg

Lunardi Bracketology (UF #1 Overall Seed)

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v239/newpublius/Lunardi2-4-2013small_zpsc63ea8e3.jpg

[glnye]

Look at Lunardi's brackets....how do the current no.1 and no.2 ranked teams, UF and IU, end up in the same regional bracket?

[Osiris_DPM]

Look at Lunardi's brackets....how do the current no.1 and no.2 ranked teams, UF and IU, end up in the same regional bracket?

I noticed that. But he explains in this video that he thinks Florida will coast while Indiana loses a couple more:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8911291

[UFG8rGuy3283]

LOL, look at the West bracket for Duke. Are you serious? That should be the bracket for the number 1 overall. Not one team in that bracket scares me.

Louisville, Indiana, NC State (who when healthy can play with most anyone), even Pitt when they play well....those are tough teams.

Interesting. It goes back to the other thread where someone asked if we would rather go out West. Not sure we wouldn't if those were the brackets.

[glnye]

I think on paper you could look at a particular bracket and say so and so gets an easy road, but in reality, in the tournament, there are always upsets, and it would not shock me that Ole Miss could get hot and beat Duke...same for Arizona, for obvious reasons. I actually like the East except for Indiana.

[GatorRx87]

Osiris......thanks for posting the updates

+1

[UFSECKINGS]

Jerry Palm has us as a 2-seed LOL.

[AzCatFan]

I'd love to see those brackets. Remember last time Duke and Arizona faced off in the tournament in Southern California? <iframe width="640" height="360" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/5jMy9zMCUIk?feature=player_detailpage" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[UFG8rGuy3283]

Jerry Palm has us as a 2-seed LOL.

If based soley on today, he's had some of what Snoop has in your profile pic.

[themistocles]

What interested me the most regarding those Ratings is simply the magnitude of the difference between the Gators and the #2 school in each one.

Then compare that with the differences among the next several teams. Looking at this one sees that UF has roughly the same advantage over the #2 team in each of those, as the #2 team has over the #5 or 6 teams, except for ESPN where the Gap is only from 2 to 4 to be as great as 1 to 2, and Sagarin, where it is only from roughly 2 to 4.

Anyway, in all, the Gators stand above.

Of course, this stuff only deals with measurable phenomena, which doesn't incorporate numerous important factors.

[UFSECKINGS]

If based soley on today, he's had some of what Snoop has in your profile pic.

Hahaha. Yes indeed. He got roasted pretty bad on twitter for it to. Saying UF 1-2 vs RPI top25 and the SEC being so weak were his points.

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

[gatorbogey]

we would have Butler in our path, wouldn't we! linardi is thinking like the selection committee on that one.

[TheRaid]

3 SEC in top 30. Pathetic.

[Bryan85]

Here's Massey's Ratings. Gators have been #1 here for several weeks. Also, like Kenpom you can click on a team and it gives a projected score and percentage of chance to win or lose future games.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=2625&s=193573

[GatorLurker]

I am so glad that Lunardi doesn't actually make the brackets.

UF as a 1 is fine. Indiana as a 2 is insane and as a 2 matched with what is probably the overall #1 is double insane.

Pitt as an 8 is also a crime. They are at least a 3 seed.

[HALLGATOR]

I see that Kentucky if in the top 20 in two out of the three which doesn't surprise me. Right now I believe they are the team which will give the Gators the toughest run for their money in the SEC.

[GatorLurker]

I see that Kentucky if in the top 20 in two out of the three which doesn't surprise me. Right now I believe they are the team which will give the Gators the toughest run for their money in the SEC.

Yes.

Nerlens Noel will disrupt our O. That is a big problem. He pretty much erases the low post game unless we have refs that will make calls against him. That is not a given.

And for some reason opposing players rush shots against NN instead of first faking. That ain't working. It is time to try something new.

Our D will be fine. UK is actually easy to guard if you have the one-on-one defenders that Florida has.

If we are shooting OK from 3 we will be fine, but if the team takes an off night it could be a nail biter.

[GatorLurker]

Ken Pom's most recent blog has a statement that Florida's ratings are unrealistic.

I emailed him to ask the question: Why do you say this?

Is it that your own algorithm is flawed? So, how do you fix this?

Is it a regression to the mean? If so, show me the really bad games.

Is it an "eye-ball" test that the Gators don't have multiple lottery picks?

I am still waiting for an answer.

[iam4uf]

Yes.

Nerlens Noel will disrupt our O. That is a big problem. He pretty much erases the low post game unless we have refs that will make calls against him. That is not a given.

Refs lately seem to be giving him the star treatment re: benefit of doubt on fouls.

And for some reason opposing players rush shots against NN instead of first faking. That ain't working. It is time to try something new.

He's skinny, I don't know why bulky post players aren't using their body against him. At least bang him around, wear him out even if you don't take a shot.

[Matthanuf06]

Ken Pom's most recent blog has a statement that Florida's ratings are unrealistic.

I emailed him to ask the question: Why do you say this?

Is it that your own algorithm is flawed? So, how do you fix this?

Is it a regression to the mean? If so, show me the really bad games.

Is it an "eye-ball" test that the Gators don't have multiple lottery picks?

I am still waiting for an answer.

I can guarantee its mean reversion. That doesn't mean we aren't the best team.

[GatorLurker]

I can guarantee its mean reversion. That doesn't mean we aren't the best team.

I am not so sure.

I think that he sees a team putting up ungodly numbers and when he looks at the personnel he doesn't see 3 or 4 lottery picks.

And I don't either.

But what I do see is an amazing team playing hoops at an amazing level.

[GatorLurker]

And there is probably some flaw in his algorithm. There is something about the way Billy D's teams play that just crushes so-so teams and that probably inflates their "scores" with kenpom and Sagarin Predictor.

[Osiris_DPM]

I am not so sure.

I think that he sees a team putting up ungodly numbers and when he looks at the personnel he doesn't see 3 or 4 lottery picks.

And I don't either.

But what I do see is an amazing team playing hoops at an amazing level.

Pomeroy had a good explanation for this, and it had nothing to do with the eye test or lottery picks. It had something to do with the numbers exceeding historical norms over numerous categories, and in the instances where this has occurred in the past, certain factors that cannot be predicted by these metrics (the human element) inevitably resulted in scenarios where the predictive effect based on these algorithims was inapplicable.

In short, he thinks Florida is the best team, but that because their adjusted metrics are so far outside the normal distribution even historically, they are likely to encounter a scenario where a variety of factors come into play that cause them to lose a game despite these metrics predicting otherwise.

You should also read his blurb in defense of Florida losing to Arizona:

1) Arizona 65, Florida 64 [59]. (Saturday) ‘Twas a low-scoring game, but not necessarily a defensive battle since there were only 59 possessions. For the AP voters that are going to put Arizona above Florida this week (which is almost all of you, I’m guessing), it’s worth reading about the head-to-head fallacy. You’re judgment is basically the opposite of history and you’re only defense is that the AP made you sign an oath stating “I don’t believe in home-court advantage”.

Here's the article on the "head to head fallacy" he references

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_head-to-head_fallacy

If you read a lot of his rationale in categorizing creating these algorithims, he actually makes a lot of sense, unlike the talking heads at ESPN, and he even said that if Florida loses a game, it does not change their status as the top team based on these metrics, just falls in line with similar historical trends based on unquantifiable factors.

I like his attempt to quantify the unquantifiable in his luck category. That factors in those intangibles like having a clutch go-to player, an automatic FT shooter, experienced players who do not panic, etc, and attempts to assign a statistical value to it. There is soooo much more that influences those "unpredictable" outcomes, but they are on the right track

[GatorLurker]

Pomeroy had a good explanation for this, and it had nothing to do with the eye test or lottery picks. It had something to do with the numbers exceeding historical norms over numerous categories, and in the instances where this has occurred in the past, certain factors that cannot be predicted by these metrics (the human element) inevitably resulted in scenarios where the predictive effect based on these algorithims was inapplicable.

In short, he thinks Florida is the best team, but that because their adjusted metrics are so far outside the normal distribution even historically, they are likely to encounter a scenario where a variety of factors come into play that cause them to lose a game despite these metrics predicting otherwise.

You should also read his blurb in defense of Florida losing to Arizona:



Here's the article on the "head to head fallacy" he references

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/the_head-to-head_fallacy

He actually makes a lot of sense, unlike the talking heads at ESPN, and he even said that if Florida loses a game, it does not change their status as the top team based on these metrics, just falls in line with similar historical trends based on unquantifiable factors.

I have read all of that before, but it doesn't really answer the question. In his algorithm this year's Gator team is above historical norms and so he says "BS". I say "they are". So, is his rating system flawed?

I have been vilified on NBN for saying that this year's team is better than either the 2006 or 2007 NC teams, but I still hold that belief. They are almost as good on O and better on D. It is a joy to watch.

Winning the NC is not verification of being the best team that year, BTW. Villanova vs Georgetown is the obvious example. Duke over UNLV in the 1991 semi-finals is another.

[gatorbogey]

i agree, these are legendary numbers;
i'd like to get some hardware first though before anointing this team. still, we're showing right now we're a pretty darn good team. metrics are in the legendary category.

[tommyuf21]

Yes.

Nerlens Noel will disrupt our O. That is a big problem. He pretty much erases the low post game unless we have refs that will make calls against him. That is not a given.

And for some reason opposing players rush shots against NN instead of first faking. That ain't working. It is time to try something new.

Our D will be fine. UK is actually easy to guard if you have the one-on-one defenders that Florida has.

If we are shooting OK from 3 we will be fine, but if the team takes an off night it could be a nail biter.

The nice thing about playing UK later is that you get to see what everyone attempts to do against them that doesn't work, especially when it comes to attacking Nerlens.

On the other hand, they are getting better and will present a much tougher challenge in a week than they would have last month.

However, I don't see our guards driving on Noel one on one without some kind of other off ball action going on. If you go back to last year, Patric and Murphy had good games against some outstanding UK bigs and Davis and MKG are gone. The rest of our team is much better and obviously the Cat's are not as good.

I can see a split, with each team defending their home turf. I know that would be considered a failure by some here, but after what has happened over the past three years, I'd take it.

[qwghlmgator]

I have read all of that before, but it doesn't really answer the question. In his algorithm this year's Gator team is above historical norms and so he says "BS". I say "they are". So, is his rating system flawed?

I have been vilified on NBN for saying that this year's team is better than either the 2006 or 2007 NC teams, but I still hold that belief. They are almost as good on O and better on D. It is a joy to watch.

Winning the NC is not verification of being the best team that year, BTW. Villanova vs Georgetown is the obvious example. Duke over UNLV in the 1991 semi-finals is another.

He's saying they are exogenous variables that are either unknow or unquatifiable - and hence not included in his model. This is not a flaw and is true of virtually any predictive statistical model ever devised.

Or, more prosaically, he's saying it's a statistical model not a crystal ball. :yes:

[socraticsilence]

I have read all of that before, but it doesn't really answer the question. In his algorithm this year's Gator team is above historical norms and so he says "BS". I say "they are". So, is his rating system flawed?

I have been vilified on NBN for saying that this year's team is better than either the 2006 or 2007 NC teams, but I still hold that belief. They are almost as good on O and better on D. It is a joy to watch.

Winning the NC is not verification of being the best team that year, BTW. Villanova vs Georgetown is the obvious example. Duke over UNLV in the 1991 semi-finals is another.

See, I don't get how you think this team is better than 2007- 2006, okay we came together late- I could see this years team taking the 2007 team in the regular season but c'mon in a game that mattered? How?

[SmootyGator]

See, I don't get how you think this team is better than 2007- 2006, okay we came together late- I could see this years team taking the 2007 team in the regular season but c'mon in a game that mattered? How?

I think the more important questions is: Could this team beat themselves? :D

[GatorLurker]

Well, Ken wrote me back and said that this year's UF team is putting up numbers in his system that are "greatest of all time" like numbers. He thinks that somehow their ranking is inflated, but gave me no explanation of why that is.

If I created a model and it was giving me unexpected numbers I would be looking for the reason.

He also said that even if Florida's numbers were shrunk a pretty fair amount they would still come out as the overall #1.

Then I was a bit surprised that he thought that UF and Indiana were about even. I guess that he doesn't believe his own model.

My view is that this UF team has been playing D in a legendary manner coupled with a very efficient O. How often does that happen?

I understand the "love" shown to the Championship teams on NBN. It was a fantastic ride and they are awesome Gators. And the 2007 team was probably the team of the decade. But this team is such a joy to watch because they play the game almost to perfection. They are not as physically talented as the NC teams, but their execution on O and D is a marvel. I just hope that they keep it together for a little more than 2 more months.