Late Season Road Games?

[bullish]

Since road games are a good barometer of NCAA tournament games, how many wins will we get out of playing at Lexington, Knoxville and Columbia? To get to the final four, teams will be better than these guys if we want to get there. Remember, we are in the top five, these teams hate us, their fans will come out to hopefully knock us off. Everyone wants a bite of Gator tail. 0 for 3 or 3-0, or somewhere in between?

You Kentucky fans, or any other SEC combatants that live here can join in also, this is not restricted to Gator fans. I am truly amazed what I read on here sometimes, but this is what separates the Dickie V's from the truth. LOL

[gator2109]

Let's see what happens against UK at our place first - that will be a good barometer. I will say 3-0 at this point in time. I don't see any reason why we would lose at UT or USCe.

Edit - realized Columbia refers to Mizzou - this wouldn't change the prediction though. Don't see us losing there.

[SmootyGator]

I'm hoping for 2-1. As much as I would love an undefeated SEC season, I think one loss at the end of the schedule would help us more for the two tournaments. My guess would be one loss at Lexington.

[UFreak]

I'm hoping for 2-1. As much as I would love an undefeated SEC season, I think one loss at the end of the schedule would help us more for the two tournaments. My guess would be one loss at Lexington.

Man, I really want to win at Lexington.

[GothamGator]

Senior Day at Rupp. Going to be the biggest challenge of the season, with the possible exception of our game in Tucson. Kentucky is getting better, and that game is still a few weeks away.

[your_perfect_enemy]

Let's see what happens against UK at our place first - that will be a good barometer. I will say 3-0 at this point in time. I don't see any reason why we would lose at UT or USCe.

it's actually columbia missouri. we only play usce the one time this year. but I don't see that changing the prediction as I was completely unimpressed by mizzou

[SmootyGator]

Man, I really want to win at Lexington.

I know, I do too... Ideally, if we *had* to lose 1 of the 3 big road games I would choose to lose at Mizzou. We owe UT and UK so much payback...

[themistocles]

I know those are the last 3 away games, but what about Fayetteville. There is also Auburn, although the Tigers don't look very good.

4-1 in those five games would be outstanding.

I don't seriously think that Kentucky will prove very much more difficult than any other opponent the Gators have faced this year due to their inexperience, if nothing else.

[jmoliver]

We are going to lose a game or two. Everyone does.

[ufhomerj31]

Senior Day at Rupp. Going to be the biggest challenge of the season, with the possible exception of our game in Tucson. Kentucky is getting better, and that game is still a few weeks away.

they have seniors that play?

[WAYNE]

What is senior day at rupp. Thats one and done u.

[UFreak]

What is senior day at rupp. Thats one and done u.

Maybe it's the day in which they allow fans 65 and older in free?

[fox]

We are going to lose a game or two. Everyone does.

I expect that as well. But still there is a crazy possibility we run the table. I only say this because of defense. If we keep the intensity in every game (the real challenge) we could do it.

[rserina]

Didn't the 2007 title team lose three road games the second half of the league season (Vandy, Tennessee, LSU)? And didn't essentially the same thing happen in 2006 (Bama, Arky)?

I suspect we go at least 2-1 in those games mentioned, but if past history is any indication it won't tell you much about our postseason prospects.

[Brewski]

Maybe it's the day in which they allow fans 65 and older in free?

Good stuff.

[gator2109]

Didn't the 2007 title team lose three road games the second half of the league season (Vandy, Tennessee, LSU)? And didn't essentially the same thing happen in 2006 (Bama, Arky)?

I suspect we go at least 2-1 in those games mentioned, but if past history is any indication it won't tell you much about our postseason prospects.

Yup, we lost the games you mention on the road to close the season. In 2006 we even had a home loss to Tenn sandwiched in there.

However, we also bounced back both years to win the SEC tournament.

[Noahtogo24]

Senior Day at Rupp. Going to be the biggest challenge of the season, with the possible exception of our game in Tucson. Kentucky is getting better, and that game is still a few weeks away.


Do they even have any seniors? But yeah in all seriouness that crowd is going to be fired up since most likely it's the freshmens last game at Rupp.

[GatorRade]

Since road games are a good barometer of NCAA tournament games

I wonder about this relationship between road games and the NCAA tournament, mostly because of analyses like these, which indicate road records aren't really any better of a predictor than home records:

On overvaluing road play (http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/on_overvaluing_road_play_again)

[gogators73]

We are going to lose a game or two. Everyone does.

UK went undefeated in the regular season in SEC play last year.

We are looking more dominant than them, even if the competition is slightly worse.

[CourtNorthGator]

One senior on UK's team:
#11 - Twany Beckham - Guard - 6-4.5 - 202 - SR
http://www.ukathletics.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/kty-m-baskbl-mtt.html

[SmootyGator]

One senior on UK's team:
#11 - Twany Beckham - Guard - 6-4.5 - 202 - SR
http://www.ukathletics.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/kty-m-baskbl-mtt.html

He must be taking like 30 credits per semester! :D

[bullish]

To GatorRade, listen to me, if we lose say 2 out 3 of these three games I mentioned and coupled with Arizona and Kansas State losses which were not gimme's, this would show we have trouble with the curve, "couldn't resist". No really, we have trouble closing down teams that have reasonable good players and depth in tight situations. Beating South Carolina, Ga., Ole Miss, LSU, Miss St, just means nothing concerning tough tournament teams. South Carolina made us look like World Beaters, maybe but doubtful. If we don't win at least 2 out of three, we are looking like a weak road team. I guarantee that it will translate in the NCAA tournament. The Villanova's, Louisville, Butler, Michigan, Arizona, Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, Miami all have teams capable of putting us out to pasture. I could name another 10 that on a given day would give us a run for the money.

So to recap, we need to be able to win against decent teams on the road to get to where we want to get to, of course everybody's wish on here is the final four, which I for one if we made it, would be spouting to anyone who would listen in North Carolina l"Here Comes The Gators"!

[rserina]

No really, we have trouble closing down teams that have reasonable good players and depth in tight situations. Beating South Carolina, Ga., Ole Miss, LSU, Miss St, just means nothing concerning tough tournament teams. South Carolina made us look like World Beaters, maybe but doubtful. If we don't win at least 2 out of three, we are looking like a weak road team. I guarantee that it will translate in the NCAA tournament. The Villanova's, Louisville, Butler, Michigan, Arizona, Kansas State, Kansas, Baylor, Miami all have teams capable of putting us out to pasture. I could name another 10 that on a given day would give us a run for the money.![/B]
And Georgetown was a miracle Brewer NBA continuation call away from beating us as a 7-seed. Of course there are plenty of good teams that can beat us in the tournament. Precious few teams are unbeatable.

But the fact that we have not played many close games or that we may have lost in the two we did or that we could potentially lose two of our three late season road contests does not necessarily mean we are any less capable of a run than it did when the 2006 team lost all six of its games decided by six points or less until finally wining one against SC in the conference title game, then doing the same thing to Georgetown on the way to a national title.

Similarly, if you turn those around and we win the close games or road games, it doesn't necessarily mean we will win those same tough games in March.

The only thing that matters is the kids on the floor, how they play together, how they compete, what their strengths and weaknesses are, and how they compare with their opponents at the moment. Now, you can appeal for precedent to the games already played, but 2-3 losses in certain situations is a pretty limited sample size, as the 2006 team showed.

[bullish]

Reserina, this isn't the 2006 team with 4 NBA prospects. I hear ya though. The sample size would be a little larger if you add in Arizona and Kansas State on the road. This would be a little more complete precedent for when capable teams are played on the road.

If we Florida, lose 2 out of 3 on the road of the games mentioned previously and in the tournament, you will hear the national media sing the SEC was down this year for one. The other comments would be Florida was a weak road team. I don't want to hear this, I hope you don't either. We have a great team and one that is fun to watch. Playing together has been a big boost for this team. The Georgetown game you mentioned was the game of the 2006 tournament. I don't know about Georgetown being a seventh seed, they had talent, Hibbert the tall center and Green the PF that were charged for the game and yes it took a miracle to close them out. Two tough road teams. It remains to be seen if this team is one of those. I am pulling for the Gators to be a tough out.

[rserina]

Reserina, this isn't the 2006 team with 4 NBA prospects.
Nobody at the time was really talking about us having four NBA prospects. Only there were even in the ballpark at the time (Noah, Horford, and Brewer), with only Noah even getting lottery buzz heading into the tourney. That all changed with a great run. With this team, Young and Murphy are definitely candidates, Boynton and Rosario on the fringe because neither has the size for their positions, and Wilbekin, who is just starting to get on the radar the way Noah did as a sophomore. Recall that it was until the game in Rupp that Noah began drawing attention (yet that was before losing three of our final six).


The Georgetown game you mentioned was the game of the 2006 tournament. I don't know about Georgetown being a seventh seed, they had talent, Hibbert the tall center and Green the PF that were charged for the game and yes it took a miracle to close them out.
They had just beaten a 2-seeded Ohio State. Killed them actually. But the point is that no one looked at them as a threat heading into the tourney. Neither Green nor Hibbert were elite prospects as preps and both were projects Thompson developed impressively that season and the next.

[GatorRade]

I think rserina gave a good answer, bullish. If our goal is to make the final four, then there is only way to meet our goal: win the first four games in the NCAA tourney. That's it. It doesn't matter if we won on the road or lost at home. We have to win those four games, on those four dates, and at those two locations. There are no substitutes.

Now what does this have to do with road games? Or close games? Well, not much, except that the outcome of such games might help indicate the probability of a successful March run. Maybe. But let's do a test. Here are two regular season tournament resumes:

Team A
25-6 overall
18-2 at home
7-4 away
Average scoring margin per 100 possessions: 32.2

Team B
26-5 overall
16-0 at home
10-5 neutral/away
Average scoring margin per 100 possessions: 28.2

Both teams are very good. They have good records, stellar at home, and blew a lot of teams out. But what about those road records? Which of these teams were able to make it to the final four? It was a trick question. They both made the final four. Meet 12' Ohio State (team A) and 12' Kansas (team B). Do you know why they were dangerous in the tournament? Not because they beat teams at home or on the road, but because they were good (beating teams by 25+ points per 100 possessions shows us that).

So what about 13' Florida?

Team C (aka 13' Florida)
17-2 overall
9-0 at home
8-2 neutral/away
Average scoring margin per 100 possessions: 43.7 (yikes!)

Our resume is right with theirs. Good record, stellar at home, and blew a lot of teams out. Maybe we will win the tournament or maybe we will lose in the sweet 16, but the Arizona and KSU games don't determine that anymore than the Wisconsin and Marquette games do. They are all a part of the same resume. We'll know more in April, but until then, we need to be treated as a threat to get to the final four. Albeit an unlikely threat, just like all the other top competitors, but perhaps a tad more likely than them as of today.

[ReggieNelson]

im not really sure that road success correlates to tournament success.

i remember when kentucky lost like 6 road games and still went to the final 4 two years ago

[MJGator8104]

Maybe it's the day in which they allow fans 65 and older in free?

Rep to you, sir, rep to you!

[bullish]

Kentucky beat us 3 times in a row last year, any correlation to the NCAA tournament title. Yes they were confident from spanking us 3 times, even in Gainseville in front of a packed house. They were road warriors and proved it to the world. Statistics aren't a science, just a reflection of what came first shows us a good probability of happening again. That is all.

With our showing down the stretch, things will become clear on our chances to getting beyond the sweet sixteen.

[tommyuf21]

I'm pretty certain that we'll drop one of those games, but couldn't tell you which one. Sometimes you play a good team on their home floor and they play a great game and beat you. It doesn't mean that you can't go on a roll in the NCAA tourney.

Last year, I really thought our goose was cooked late in the season when we were losing games to UK and Vandy and the Poodles, but when the NCAA tourney began, they morphed into a much better team.

I agree with Billy when he says that he's more concerned about how we're playing the game as opposed to watching the scoreboard.

[TampaGatorFan]

We've got a really good shot at running the table in the SEC this year. If we don't make a lot of mistakes, I don't see anyone in the SEC beating us, even on the road.

[tommyuf21]

Kentucky beat us 3 times in a row last year, any correlation to the NCAA tournament title. Yes they were confident from spanking us 3 times, even in Gainseville in front of a packed house. They were road warriors and proved it to the world. Statistics aren't a science, just a reflection of what came first shows us a good probability of happening again. That is all.

With our showing down the stretch, things will become clear on our chances to getting beyond the sweet sixteen.

They were so much better than us from a talent standpoint. The fact that we played them as tough as we did was pretty amazing.

[HALLGATOR]

The last game against Kentucky last year was a 3 point loss.

[bullish]

Hallgator, the 3 pt loss showed our team we could compete and it helped the team in the tournament. Kentucky had some awesome talent.

But, I kept thinking as the tournament played out, about how a fourth loss would feel. Our best shot and we fell short didn't make me feel confident about our chances if we had another game with the Kats.

I would like to return the favor to the Kittens, beat them 3 times in one season. Now that would turn Kentucky's world upside down. LOL

[fox]

At some point the grind starts wearing on a team and energy level drops for some games, especially on the road. Seems like energy is still building with this team. The pressure is from each other to get better. No one guy has pressure on him to perform great every night. That is huge emotionally.

Wilbekin is the key. He has the most pressure on him and expends more energy than anyone - physical and emotional. But he is getting better and at least he has a little rest from time to time. But I say we go as far as he can take us.

[gatorbogey]

i'm not fearing any of those road games, quite honestly!
however i would be in fear if i was desperate to get that undefeated conference record.

they should be all great tests for the team. hostile game evironment. will be good for the team for the post-season play. that's how i look at the season: frankly, it's all about building the team for the ncaa's.

if i were to predict?
equal probability for 0-3 & 1-2 & 2-1 (i just can't decide if the road atmosphere gets the tigers and/or vols to play out of their minds, you know the vols do just that when facing us),
and slightly less probability for 3-0 given the projected improvement for the UK team.

[dadx4]

I know we could have a hiccup but the way we are playing is amazing right now. I just hope it carries forward in the tourney.

[rserina]

Kentucky beat us 3 times in a row last year, any correlation to the NCAA tournament title. Yes they were confident from spanking us 3 times, even in Gainseville in front of a packed house. They were road warriors and proved it to the world. Statistics aren't a science, just a reflection of what came first shows us a good probability of happening again. That is all.

With our showing down the stretch, things will become clear on our chances to getting beyond the sweet sixteen.
But the fact that UK beat us (a 7-seed) did not necessarily mean they would advance anymore than their loss to Vandy in the SEC tournament meant they wouldn't. More to the point, that team was phenemonal(ly well paid). You can't go back to them and compare things so categorically.

That's why Rade posted the helpful comparison of two final four teams from a year ago. Same thing for the UConn team that won it all two seasons ago. Or the UK team of three years ago that didn't make it. You can go on like this forever.

The fact is that you get a pretty reasonable idea of who the best teams are in the regular season and that is one of the reasons you find higher seeded teams regularly making the Final Four. But in a single elimination tournament the outcome of a single game cannot be predicated upon something as simple as how team X fared in road games down the stretch. That may be one of any number of indicators, but it is not the sole one. If it were, you wouldn't have a national craze where ever telemarketer and office secretary fills out a bracket, picks the teams based upon uniform color, and ends up beating national analysts in their bracket pools.

[REM08]

One senior on UK's team:
#11 - Twany Beckham - Guard - 6-4.5 - 202 - SR
http://www.ukathletics.com/sports/m-baskbl/mtt/kty-m-baskbl-mtt.html

Have a grad student also. Julius Mays.

[HALLGATOR]

Hallgator, the 3 pt loss showed our team we could compete and it helped the team in the tournament. Kentucky had some awesome talent.

But, I kept thinking as the tournament played out, about how a fourth loss would feel. Our best shot and we fell short didn't make me feel confident about our chances if we had another game with the Kats.

I would like to return the favor to the Kittens, beat them 3 times in one season. Now that would turn Kentucky's world upside down. LOL

I can't say how a fourth game would have ended but losing Yeguette definitely hurt us in the 3rd game along with Kenny having a terrible 1-9 night. Erv wasn't a lot better at 3-10 so even an average night for those guys would have sealed a win. Of course on the other side you had Erik who scored 24 which offset their poor shooting to a degree. However had we played them in a fourth game I think we could have given them all the game they wanted and could have well won it all. Or we may have suffered another loss since it is all conjecture at this point.

Of course you won't get any disagreement out of me when you talk about beating them 3 times in a season.

[corpgator]

Nobody at the time was really talking about us having four NBA prospects. Only there were even in the ballpark at the time (Noah, Horford, and Brewer), with only Noah even getting lottery buzz heading into the tourney. That all changed with a great run. With this team, Young and Murphy are definitely candidates, Boynton and Rosario on the fringe because neither has the size for their positions, and Wilbekin, who is just starting to get on the radar the way Noah did as a sophomore. Recall that it was until the game in Rupp that Noah began drawing attention (yet that was before losing three of our final six).



They had just beaten a 2-seeded Ohio State. Killed them actually. But the point is that no one looked at them as a threat heading into the tourney. Neither Green nor Hibbert were elite prospects as preps and both were projects Thompson developed impressively that season and the next.

Pomeroy said before the tourney that there were two underseeded teams: Georgetown and UF. Georgetown got a particularly bad seed because they play very slowly. They would beat a team by 10, but it would be a 15 point win at a normal pace. They should have been 4 seed going into the tourney. That was the year the entire big-10 choked out because they were all overseeded.

[themistocles]

And Georgetown was a miracle Brewer NBA continuation call away from beating us as a 7-seed. Of course there are plenty of good teams that can beat us in the tournament. Precious few teams are unbeatable.

But the fact that we have not played many close games or that we may have lost in the two we did or that we could potentially lose two of our three late season road contests does not necessarily mean we are any less capable of a run than it did when the 2006 team lost all six of its games decided by six points or less until finally wining one against SC in the conference title game, then doing the same thing to Georgetown on the way to a national title.

Similarly, if you turn those around and we win the close games or road games, it doesn't necessarily mean we will win those same tough games in March.

The only thing that matters is the kids on the floor, how they play together, how they compete, what their strengths and weaknesses are, and how they compare with their opponents at the moment. Now, you can appeal for precedent to the games already played, but 2-3 losses in certain situations is a pretty limited sample size, as the 2006 team showed.


As usual, you are on the money.

The best time to predict anything is after it has occurred.

When the SEC season, the SEC tournament and the NCAA tournament are all over, I can tell you what the Gators will do. Now, where did I put my Time Machine?

[rserina]

When the SEC season, the SEC tournament and the NCAA tournament are all over, I can tell you what the Gators will do. Now, where did I put my Time Machine?
Says the statistician? No way.