Paper schedule vs. Real schedule

[bakaduin]

I was reading the Zona v Clemson thread and was shocked to learn our SOS was in the 100s. When you looked at our schedule on paper it seemed like it would be one of our toughest in years, loaded with big name consistently good programs. It is amazing to see how quickly things can change when you think you are scheduling a difficult road.

Of our 4 big wins (UCF, Marquette, Wisconsin, and FSU) who would have guessed UCF would have the highest RPI among them. Currently the teams are 64, 119, 92, and 140 respectively. Who would have guessed that these teams would be so low, especially FSU.

Now with that being said we have absolutely dominated these teams and look like we will be competing for a high seed in the tournament. Arizona will be a great litmus test and I can't wait. We will likely lose a few games this year we shouldn't (we always do) and win some big ones (Kentucky anyone?) and I can't wait.

[InstiGATOR1]

Keep in mind that as more of the schedule is played both Marquette and Wisconsin may be viewed as much better wins. Also FSU infamously plays poorly early and cranks it up for the ACC schedule.

[GatorsGators]

Middle Tennessee has actually been our "best" RPI win so far, considering they're 41st after beating Ole Miss earlier today. According to the same site (RPIforecast), our SOS is 21st. KenPom has it ranked 91st, while Sagarin has it ranked 44th.

So it honestly hasn't been that bad in actuality.

RPI and SOS don't mean much right now, though. There are some obvious outliers in the RPI right now (Steven F. Austin ranked 17?!?).

[gatorbogey]

according to sagarin, he's got our schedule to-date rated 44th right now. that's actually pretty darn strong.
zona, prior to playing clemson was something like 270th in SoS.

[GatorJeff]

MTSU is very good team, projected to win their conference. They have four starters back from last year's team that beat UT in Knoxville during the NIT. They should finish with a decent RPI and tourney bid. Savannah St. is also favored to win their conference and appear in the NCAA tournament.

[GatorPlanet]

I've seen all our games so far, and I believe that MTSU was our best opponent.

We scheduled tough...it's not our fault the tough teams didn't turn out so great. That said, I think Marquette and Wisconsin will be in the NCAA tournament. In fact, they are more likely to get in than MTSU, which probably has to win its conference tourney to make the field. Marquette and Wiscy will get in if they just finish .500 in league play.

Unfair.

[NorthCaptivaGator]

I was reading the Zona v Clemson thread and was shocked to learn our SOS was in the 100s. When you looked at our schedule on paper it seemed like it would be one of our toughest in years, loaded with big name consistently good programs. It is amazing to see how quickly things can change when you think you are scheduling a difficult road.

Of our 4 big wins (UCF, Marquette, Wisconsin, and FSU) who would have guessed UCF would have the highest RPI among them. Currently the teams are 64, 119, 92, and 140 respectively. Who would have guessed that these teams would be so low, especially FSU.

Now with that being said we have absolutely dominated these teams and look like we will be competing for a high seed in the tournament. Arizona will be a great litmus test and I can't wait. We will likely lose a few games this year we shouldn't (we always do) and win some big ones (Kentucky anyone?) and I can't wait.

If we had finished the game against Georgetown,win or lose, out SOS would be better, it doesn't seem like much but with the way the SEC looks right now it could end up being the difference between a 1 and a 2 seed come March

[bakaduin]

If we had finished the game against Georgetown,win or lose, out SOS would be better, it doesn't seem like much but with the way the SEC looks right now it could end up being the difference between a 1 and a 2 seed come March

Good point I forgot about GTown! We would have beat um and it would have been a great win.

[themistocles]

Actually, all RPIs and such of of highly questionable validity if for no other reason than the indubitable fact that every team is a different phenomena at every different game, that every different matchup makes every game different, and that home versus road versus neutral make every game different and that some "homes" are far more difficult to play in for road teams than others.

Over an entire season, these factors tend to "average" out, making such estimates "more valid" albeit still of very limited validity.

The thing is that you are trying to estimate with numbers something that can't really be properly "measured" if for no other reason than it's impossibly complexity.

[corpgator]

The RPI is complete garbage. The sooner it goes away the better.

Pomeroy has us at 92, much higher than we normally are this time of year.

[gatorbogey]

we're at .9698 w/ pomeroy

[gogators73]

The RPI is not meant to be accurate this early in the season.

It is meant for much further down the road.

[gatorbogey]

RPI is pretty much a worthless metric; especially if you're trying to determine who's better than who.

[GatorLurker]

The Gator schedule is more than fine.

MTSU is a very good squad. I'd say they are better than a lot of the SEC teams this year.

Marquette and Wisconsin are solid teams even though it didn't look that way after we played them.

FSU is still searching for an identity. Right now they are playing very poor basketball.

'Zona will be a real test. This game and our road game at Rupp are the two most difficult games on our schedule.

And don't forget that we have a game with K State in KC. K State is a very good team.

[GatorPlanet]

Winning at Arizona and Kansas State will give us even more cache'.

[GatorRade]

As others have said, you should use KenPom and Sagarin. They actually rate the power of teams, with which I think we should be most interested.

[WESGATORS]

Part of the problem is that when teams see FLORIDA on their schedule it scares them and it leads to poor performances leading up to the game. Then when we blow them out of the water, it demoralizes them and sets them back even further. Worst-case scenario, we'll Memphis our way to a top seed.

I don't miss the excess of weak competition coming into the O'DOME, hopefully it builds a little anticipation for the home crowd going into SEC play.

Go GATORS!
,WESGATORS