UF v. UK matchups 2012-13

[InstiGATOR1]

Well since we have a few UK posters here and the season it drawing close, I thought I would look at the matchups this year between UF and UK:

PG: Wilbekin v. Harrow

Wilbekin is tough defensive minded pass first PG who averaged over 2.5 assists per turnover last season. Harrow like Wilbekin is a 3rd year player. He was a poor shooting PG at NCSU two years back shooting 39% from the field and 22.2% from the arc. This one seems like either a push to me.

SG: Boynton v. Goodwin

Boynton is a proven good college level shooter and scorer. He can drive some and is solid from the arc. Goodwin is a scorer though not a prolific scorer from the arc in the EYBL indicating to me he will be a slasher. I would make this advantage UF, but a slight advantage as I think Goodwin will be pretty good.

SF: Prather v. Poythress

Prather showed some flashes late last season. Poythress is maybe UK's top recruit after Noel. He scored well in the EYBL and was a good offensive rebounder. Given that going into his 3rd season Prather has not consistently established himself, this one might have to be edge UK for now.

PF: Murphy v. Wiltjer

Both these guys are somewhat perimeter oriented bigs. Both shoot well from the arc. Murphy rebounds and defends a bit better and is a more established player. So I would say edge UF on this matchup.

C: Young v. Noel

Young scored 43 points on 20 of 34 shooting from the field and 3 of 3 shooting from the line in three games last year against UK/Davis. He also grabbed 18 rebound in those three games. That means he averaged 14.3 points and 6 rebounds a game against UK and Davis last year. Noel is a good shot blocker averaging 5.0 per game in the EYBL his last season, though it is hard to believe he is a better shot blocker than Davis, and Noel is said to be raw offensively. I think I have to give UF the edge on in this matchup.

Subs: Rosario/Yeguete v. Cauley/Mays

Rosario gives UF depth in the 1-3 positions and Yeguete gives UF depth in the 4-5 positions. Mays gives UK some guard depth and Cauley gives UK some depth in the front court. Cauley may start and that would slide Wiltjer to this spot. Cauley is a bit of an unknown, but I was impressed that the he was a high school WR and caught some passes, so I am sure he will be at least a good player as a Frosh. Mays was a bit player for two years at NCSU, sat out and transferred to Wright State and averages Rosario is a solid slashing offensive player who will score given minutes and Yeguete is likely to lead UF in rebounding this season, but is offensively raw. UF's third guy off the bench Larson is probably better than anyone UK has off the bench. Unless Hood is remarkably better after a knee injury, these 6 will need to be iron men for UK.

Coaching: Donovan v. Calipari

Everyone knows the details. I think Donovan deserves the edge, but call this one a push to make the discussion focus more on the players than the coaches.

So I have it SF an edge for UK, PG and coaching a push and SG, PF, C and bench edge to UF. Certainly UK's new players could be even better than expected, but that might be tough after Davis and Gilchrist last year. Still looking at it this way, I think I would favor UF to win the SEC regular season this year.

[gatordd]

not a big goodwin fan. I think he is overrated.

[REM08]

Good post. I, shockingly, don't totally agree though.

I give Harrow the edge against Wilbekin. I've seen both of them play a decent amount over the last year. This doesn't mean I'm right, but I feel confident about this even though Harrow is not the defensive player Wilbekin is. By no means is this a big advantage for UK, its very small IMO.

Unlike gatordd, I actually think Goodwin is underrated. He's not Doron Lamb and won't be raining 3's down on everyone. he's a slasher and a great defender. The only advantage I see Boynton having is his newly-found 3pt % and his experience (which I don't value very much these days). You say "but Boynton is a lock down defender?" Goodwin will be too - in addition to being faster and longer. I'm torn between calling this a push and calling it a SLIGHT advantage for UF. Flip a coin.

Poythress over Prather (or any other 3). I'm trying to be tactful, but this isn't even close IMO. I think Poythress will be UK's best player. He is an absolute beast and is a mismatch waiting to happen. I've been really impressed with some of the flashes shown by Prather late last year - no doubt he's developing. Big advantage UK.

Wiltjer and Murphy. Wiltjer may be Kentucky's leading scorer, but I really think Murphy is good. I don't think he has QUITE the offensive skill Wiltjer has, but has more toughness and is less of a defensive liability. I'll go slight advantage UF.

Young vs Noel. They're really somewhat similar players, in a way, if you ask me. Both physical freaks who aren't very polished and have very little offensive ability away from the basket. I think Noel is better though. To think otherwise, you'd have to assume that Noel will be a top draft pick based really only on potential - despite a relatively weak contribution in college. Think about the last decades worth of number 1 or 2 picks in the NBA. How many of them made less of an impact than you expect Young to make this year? I'm not saying this is a huge advantage like we're talking about Anthony Davis. Noel is nowhere near that good. But I would say slight advantage UK.

Bench - no question UF is the deeper team. I disagree with your comment about Larson being better than anyone on UK's bench though. He's not as good as WCS. Cal has had 4 teams now at UK and only one of them had a deep, quality bench - and it was his first team that had a lot of carry overs. This will just never be part of his teams at UK. Big advantage UF.

[REM08]

So I have it SF an edge for UK, PG and coaching a push and SG, PF, C and bench edge to UF. Certainly UK's new players could be even better than expected, but that might be tough after Davis and Gilchrist last year. Still looking at it this way, I think I would favor UF to win the SEC regular season this year.[/QUOTE]


While I disagreed with some of your takes, I can see your reasoning for them. I think this year is a particularly difficult one to make these kind of predictions/comparison (its definitely fun though and worth a shot). If you're being honest (with coaching included) you give UF the edge in 5 out of 7 categories. Thats fairly definitive and should mean Florida beats UK more than once and ends up winning the conference (as you projected). I'm not saying this can't happen, just that if it doesn't, what explains it?

The reason I see this year as being the most interesting UK/UF matchup in the last 4 years is because, IMO, it comes down to two components: experience and ceiling.

No question experience helps, but how much? UK has none. Big difference, or little?

The other concept is each teams, or player's, ceiling. IMO, if these two exact teams play 6 or 8 years from now, I think its safe to say that Kentucky would have a decided advantage. Draftexpress (whatever its worth) predicts 4 first rounders, including 3 top 10 picks on Kentucky's roster - and only 1 first rounder on Florida's roster with Young at pick number 19. I only cite draftexpress as a weak attempt to quantify my point here.

This latter point is what I think this season boils down to. If Harrow, Goodwin and Noel can realize a good percentage of their potential quickly, I think this gives Kentucky an advantage at those spots. If you think they'll remain relatively raw and not be able to contribute at the level of Wilkebin, Boynton and Young, then obviously you'd give Florida the edge. This is crux of this discussion as far as I'm concerned.

[InstiGATOR1]

Among the points raised:

1. With Harrow it is a matter of whether or not he fits the dribble drive offense better than whatever he was being used at NCSU when he was there. Also he will have better coaching and better players around him at UK. I personally really like Wilbekin's game, so I reined in my views on him to write my initial post.

2. On the coaching issue both are goood recruiters. Donovan might well recruit as well at UK as Calipari. But recruiting is irrelevant to coaches in this discussion. The recruiting reflects in who the players are. This is about game day coaching. Calipari beat Donovan three times last year in part because Donovan persisted in giving big minutes a tiny unathlete PG who hurt UF in this matchup. Still even if one thinks Donovan is the better overall coach, the 3-0 record for Calipari last year makes me call this one even.

3. On the UVa websites, they did not even know Prathers name before he blew up and led UF over them. Prather is very talented. His stride forward in NCAAs was not against some over matched midmajor but a power conference program. Also Prather and Poythress are both from Tennessee and may have some history with each other. If so, I suspect it favors the 20 year old not the 18 year old, but I could be wrong. I gave Poythress the edge, but I would not be shocked if Prather has the actual edge in games this year.

4. When it comes to actual game there will be intangibles, home court advantage etc to factor in. If UF and UK meet 3 times, would say my 4-1-2 or your 4-2-1 UF advantage would guess that UF would win 2 of the 3. As far as the SEC goes, last year Young played big against name opponents, Sullinger and Davis for two, but played down to other opponents. UF winning the SEC this year might depend on a consistent Young.

[mastoidbone]

agree---UK BIG advantage at the 3.

[tupacbiff]

Uf huge advantage at very spot

[dailydoublecat]

I think we will split this season IMHO. Listening to Cal talk about the practices I know he really likes the potential of this team IF they work hard and play for each other. I think our player from Kansas is going to be something lol.

Florida has the experience and tons of talent. I think it is near impossible to figure out who will have the advantages. We have tons of potential but potential does not win you ball games. Florida is the team to beat and I think both of us will be scary in march.
Jeff

[tupacbiff]

If uk makes the tourney they go out 1st rd

[dailydoublecat]

If uk makes the tourney they go out 1st rd

The great thing about college basketball is you will be proven right or proven wrong. I'm more excited about the UK women's team than the men's this year!
Jeff

[tupacbiff]

The great thing about college basketball is you will be proven right or proven wrong. I'm more excited about the UK women's team than the men's this year!
Jeff

Sorry it took me a while to respond I've been on the floor laughing uncontrollably.

More excited about the women's game? Yeah me to I really enjoy watching a totally subpar product.

[dailydoublecat]

Sorry it took me a while to respond I've been on the floor laughing uncontrollably.

More excited about the women's game? Yeah me to I really enjoy watching a totally subpar product.

I support and love what Matthew Mitchell has done for women's basketball at Kentucky. The UK women will probably have a better year than the men's team. You support, watch, and cheer for whom you choose and I will do the same.

This is a bridge year for the UK men's team although next year we are going to be damn unreal!!

[tupacbiff]

I support and love what Matthew Mitchell has done for women's basketball at Kentucky. The UK women will probably have a better year than the men's team. You support, watch, and cheer for whom you choose and I will do the same.

This is a bridge year for the UK men's team although next year we are going to be damn unreal!!

Root and support whomever u want. I just can't respect anyone who is more excited about wonen's hoops then men's. Only acceptable excuse is your daughter is on the team. How could anyone enjoy the women's game compared to men? Pathetic.

[dailydoublecat]

Tupac honestly I don't need nor want your respect.
Jeff

[swampgas44]

Tupac honestly I don't need nor want your respect.
Jeff

+1 Well said !!

[rserina]

Tupac honestly I don't need nor want your respect.
Jeff
Pretty much sums up the opinion of the entire Western hemisphere. Probably the Eastern hemisphere, too.

[tampajack1]

Among the points raised:

1. With Harrow it is a matter of whether or not he fits the dribble drive offense better than whatever he was being used at NCSU when he was there. Also he will have better coaching and better players around him at UK. I personally really like Wilbekin's game, so I reined in my views on him to write my initial post.

2. On the coaching issue both are goood recruiters. Donovan might well recruit as well at UK as Calipari. But recruiting is irrelevant to coaches in this discussion. The recruiting reflects in who the players are. This is about game day coaching. Calipari beat Donovan three times last year in part because Donovan persisted in giving big minutes a tiny unathlete PG who hurt UF in this matchup. Still even if one thinks Donovan is the better overall coach, the 3-0 record for Calipari last year makes me call this one even.

3. On the UVa websites, they did not even know Prathers name before he blew up and led UF over them. Prather is very talented. His stride forward in NCAAs was not against some over matched midmajor but a power conference program. Also Prather and Poythress are both from Tennessee and may have some history with each other. If so, I suspect it favors the 20 year old not the 18 year old, but I could be wrong. I gave Poythress the edge, but I would not be shocked if Prather has the actual edge in games this year.

4. When it comes to actual game there will be intangibles, home court advantage etc to factor in. If UF and UK meet 3 times, would say my 4-1-2 or your 4-2-1 UF advantage would guess that UF would win 2 of the 3. As far as the SEC goes, last year Young played big against name opponents, Sullinger and Davis for two, but played down to other opponents. UF winning the SEC this year might depend on a consistent Young.

Interesting 6th sentence in paragraph 2. You remain one of the biggest jerks on this board.

[tupacbiff]

Tupac honestly I don't need nor want your respect.
Jeff

Like I care what you think you need or want.

There is no greater honor than having my respect. It should be your life's mission to try and obtain it. I understand you probably feel a huge void and are just lashing out and overcompensating.

[tupacbiff]

Interesting 6th sentence in paragraph 2. You remain one of the biggest jerks on this board.

Not sure I get this. You can't really say walker played well v uk.

[trufloridagator]

If uk makes the tourney they go out 1st rd

I hope you dont bet because you would lose a lot of money with statements like this.

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

[tupacbiff]

I hope you dont bet because you would lose a lot of money with statements like this.

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

I do bet and do really well. It's probably because I understand betting and betting lines better than just about everyone. It's why I consistently make $ year after year.

I firmly believe uk could go out 1st rd. the key is getting the odds to make it a worthwhile bet.

[trufloridagator]

I do bet and do really well. It's probably because I understand betting and betting lines better than just about everyone. It's why I consistently make $ year after year.

I firmly believe uk could go out 1st rd. the key is getting the odds to make it a worthwhile bet.

Thats not what you said though. You said with certainty, they would lose.

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

[tupacbiff]

Thats not what you said though. You said with certainty, they would lose.

Sent from my iPhone using GatorCountry

Just because I think they will lose does not make it a good bet. I never said I was betting on them to lose.

Plus, I think your retort was quite silly. The season has not started yet and we don't even know if they make the tourney.

[trufloridagator]

Just because I think they will lose does not make it a good bet. I never said I was betting on them to lose.

Plus, I think your retort was quite silly. The season has not started yet and we don't even know if they make the tourney.

How was my response silly as a hypothetical if your initial comment was based on them making the tourney as well?

What I am getting at is not whether you would make a bet, but rather why you make a 100% absolute statement like that. Either back it up or stop making those laughable absolutes.

[tupacbiff]

How was my response silly as a hypothetical if your initial comment was based on them making the tourney as well?

What I am getting at is not whether you would make a bet, but rather why you make a 100% absolute statement like that. Either back it up or stop making those laughable absolutes.

Sure I will be it if the odds are right! What is so hard for u to understand.

[trufloridagator]

Sure I will be it if the odds are right! What is so hard for u to understand.

You're backtracking, based on your initial statement, it wouldn't matter.

[tupacbiff]

You're backtracking, based on your initial statement, it wouldn't matter.

Thank you for proving you lack the basic understanding of
Betting. I could explain it to you but doubt you will be able to grasp it.

[trufloridagator]

Thank you for proving you lack the basic understanding of
Betting. I could explain it to you but doubt you will be able to grasp it.

lol. You can't read at all, I was saying since you think it is a 100% certainty, why would the odds matter. DUCY?

Lay me 4:1, that should be a deal on a 100% lock.

[tupacbiff]

lol. You can't read at all, I was saying since you think it is a 100% certainty, why would the odds matter. DUCY?

Lay me 4:1, that should be a deal on a 100% lock.

Oh now I get it (eye roll).

4:1? So you are saying uk will lose in the 1st rd once every 4 years.

I think you need to grasp the concept of a good bet, which u seem incapable of doing.

[trufloridagator]

Oh now I get it (eye roll).

4:1? So you are saying uk will lose in the 1st rd once every 4 years.

I think you need to grasp the concept of a good bet, which u seem incapable of doing.

No, I'm saying you lay me 4:1 on UK losing the 1st round. How is that not a good bet if you said it was a 100% lock?

[tupacbiff]

No, I'm saying you lay me 4:1 on UK losing the 1st round. How is that not a good bet if you said it was a 100% lock?

Sure now it's time to put up. I'm willing to lay $5,000,000 US which means you need $20MM. When you have that liquid and held where betting is legal, private message me and I'll give you the offshore escrow acct. They will hold the $ and draw up the terms and conditions. If you have a different well known foreign law firm preference I am negotiable but it will require my due diligence. obviously I will need to see proof of funds prior to putting in any more time.

[trufloridagator]

Sure now it's time to put up. I'm willing to lay $5,000,000 US which means you need $20MM. When you have that liquid and held where betting is legal, private message me and I'll give you the offshore escrow acct. They will hold the $ and draw up the terms and conditions. If you have a different well known foreign law firm preference I am negotiable but it will require my due diligence. obviously I will need to see proof of funds prior to putting in any more time.

You are giving me 4:1 on this bet. You're saying UK loses 80% of the time in this bet, which is a good deal considering you believe it is 100%. You wanted the 'UK losing' side of this bet.

Unfortunately, I'm not that deep, and while I'd be willing to bet a decent amount, I'd rather not deal with an escrow for a simple bet since I don't know you. If I win & you don't pay, it's not a big deal.

I'll put up $50 to your $200, or we can do a signature bet for your choice on mine for 10 days, or my choice for 40 days.

Beyond this, I'm done with the derail, so don't troll further with outrageous amounts of money. I'm happy you're so deep, please put it towards our athletic programs rather than trolling this forum.

PM me if you want to enter the bet.

[tupacbiff]

I suggest you keep checking your pm incessantly.

[REM08]

CBS (Goodman and Parrish) are indirectly weighing in on this debate (not Tupacs debate though).

They recently listed their top 50 point guards and their top 50 big men.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/20656491
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/20643571

They've got Harrow as the 19th best PG and don't list Wilkebin
They've got Noel 3rd, Poythress 14th, Wiltjer 44th - Young 19th, Murphy 28th

Greg Doyell tweeted that he thinks Young is "very underrated" at 19 and I know from listening to Goodman over the last year that he thinks Murphy should be higher as well.

Obviously I'm not suggesting the cbs guys as anything close to a definitive source. Just figured it was somewhat relatable to this thread.

[tupacbiff]

CBS (Goodman and Parrish) are indirectly weighing in on this debate (not Tupacs debate though).

They recently listed their top 50 point guards and their top 50 big men.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/20656491
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/20643571

They've got Harrow as the 19th best PG and don't list Wilkebin
They've got Noel 3rd, Poythress 14th, Wiltjer 44th - Young 19th, Murphy 28th

Greg Doyell tweeted that he thinks Young is "very underrated" at 19 and I know from listening to Goodman over the last year that he thinks Murphy should be higher as well.

Obviously I'm not suggesting the cbs guys as anything close to a definitive source. Just figured it was somewhat relatable to this thread.

Citing CBS as a source is Pathetic.

Second player ranks have no bearing on a team.

I doubt lee Humphrey was considered a top 50 guard but he was the #1 sg our team could have had that yr.

I will also say their ranks are woeful and I didn't even look at them. Why? As a former CBS employee I know why those guys still have a job there. They are cheap labor.

[GatorLurker]

I think that they seriously underestimate Eric Murphy. He does most everything very well except rebound. And if that becomes an emphasis his help-D will suffer and his blocks will go way down.

Whatever "3" we put on the floor has to fill Beal's rebounding stat more than anything else. I figure that we will have enough scoring on the floor to fill that hole left by Brad by committee. His defensive rebounding was really astounding especially for a freshman that wasn't playing in the paint. It was a joy to watch.

[gobigblue]

I have no problem with your analysis except that Coach Cal is 7-1 versus Donovan. Edge to Coach Cal.

[GatorsGators]

I have no problem with your analysis except that Coach Cal is 7-1 versus Donovan. Edge to Coach Cal.2>1 :wave:

[GatorsGators]

CBS (Goodman and Parrish) are indirectly weighing in on this debate (not Tupacs debate though).

They recently listed their top 50 point guards and their top 50 big men.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/20656491
http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/20643571

They've got Harrow as the 19th best PG and don't list Wilkebin
They've got Noel 3rd, Poythress 14th, Wiltjer 44th - Young 19th, Murphy 28th

Greg Doyell tweeted that he thinks Young is "very underrated" at 19 and I know from listening to Goodman over the last year that he thinks Murphy should be higher as well.

Obviously I'm not suggesting the cbs guys as anything close to a definitive source. Just figured it was somewhat relatable to this thread.Well, of course Wilbekin isn't going to be in any preseason rankings. He was a virtual unknown coming out of high school unlike Harrow, and he's been a backup point guard for the first two years of his career. Aaron Craft sure is getting a ton of hype, and I think Wilbekin has the potential to be just as good as or better than Craft.

[gobigblue]

2>1 :wave:

8>2

[GatorsGators]

8>2What does that have to do with Cal and Donovan specifically?

[tupacbiff]

Actually we all know it is just a matter of time until billy is undefeated against cal. Cal's wins will all be vacated.