PD’s Postulations: Thoughts on the Luke Del Rio Game

Sure, I know it was the North Texas game. But it might as well be officially called the Whatever Game. In five years, nobody will remember anything from the game – heck, do any of you remember anything about this game today? Except of course for that filthy, disgusting, should-have-been-ejected/suspended/beaten from the sport, late, low and helmet-targeting hit from a dirty/late-hit repeat offender that knocked Luke Del Rio out of the game and likely out of the Tennessee game. Regardless of the impact the hit has on this season or future seasons, nobody will remember much if anything about this game except for that hit.

And that’s a shame. Which we will discuss momentarily. First, what I wrote above: “likely out of the Tennessee game.” I will stick with that until official word says differently. Because from the nanosecond Luke was hit, a cavalcade of doomsday soothsayers adamantly insisted that he had already been ruled out for Tennessee, LSU, the rest of the 2016 season and even that his Gator tenure and indeed football career were over. I and a few others suggested that perhaps we wait until at least a radiology film was taken of his knee before printing his disability checks. Then of course it happened. Somewhere between getting his leg amputated and being read his last rites, Del Rio – and the rest of us – learned the best news thought possible: bruised MCL, minimal recovery time projected, between 1 and 4 weeks. I am not expecting to see LDR take the field against Tennessee – and I suggest you don’t, either – but I am not ruling it out.

2B or Not 2B

That is the question, or at least it seems to be amongst Gator fans. That is, the consensus in Gator Nation is that reserve quarterbacks Austin Appleby and Kyle Trask are 2A and 2B, indistinguishable in terms of ability to step in and win a game this Saturday for Florida. Given Appleby’s insertion to finish the North Texas game, it would appear that Mac believes Austin to be 2A, however the fans clearly think he is 2B (and thus, a starting nod against Tennessee not to be).

This came as a bit of a surprise to me, having watched the spring game wherein Appleby played quite well, connecting for 8-of-11 (73%) and 80 yards, 10 yards per completion and no sacks. Trask also performed well, of course, going 4-for-7 (57%) for 63 yards, 16 yards per completion and was brought down once for a sack. Both passed the eye test, but it cannot be overlooked that Appleby has started an entire season worth of games (well, an old school season of 11) at a Power 5 school, and for the most part played well given that he was surrounded by one of the worst collections of supporting talent in the Power 5 in recent memory. He has some well-known flaws such as accuracy and decision making under pressure, but it remains to be seen how or if those flaws will surface when aided by an exceptional cast of offensive skill players and operating in a much more schematically sound offense, as both are the case with this Florida squad. And he has received better position coaching in the truncated year in Gainesville than he has ever received in his career. Trask may well be the future at quarterback for the Gators, but he has never started a game in college or even high school, and the prospects of a Gator win this Saturday will nosedive if Florida were to start a true freshman with zero career starts since his pre-high school days.

So if Del Rio can’t go, it will be Appleby. That is a certainty. And I think he would have to fail pretty spectacularly to see Trask enter the game. This pending decision has sent chills up the spines of many a Gator fan, but take heart. Although Appleby is not Del Rio, neither is Del Rio. The long years of quarterback destitution in Gainesville have warped the locals’ sense of perspective. LDR is so far ahead of anyone that has run the Gator offense since Tim Tebow, that it has been too easy to view him as an All-American. He has done a very good job at executing the offense through three games, and for that, the Gators have three dominating wins to their credit…but that is the extent of his output this year. He isn’t heading up anyone’s Heisman list. He’s not an early favorite for SEC Player of the Year. The biggest asset he brings is leadership and football IQ that has facilitated the offense and raised the play of those around him. It’s for the most part been exactly what the coaches asked, but all they have asked is to run the offense efficiently, move the chains, limit turnovers and make smart decisions. I.e., proficiently execute the offense. Appleby can execute the offense proficiently, as well. So can Trask, but you just don’t throw a true frosh into the fire in for his first game action if you have other comparable options.

Florida has other comparable options. Remember all the buzz, all the excitement in spring over the fact that we finally have quality depth at quarterback so that we are not one injury away from a big game or the whole season being ruined? Well that big injury just happened, and the next game and the whole season are still 100% in play for Florida. This is the luxury we have been celebrating for months. Three capable guys. That luxury is now going to be tested. It is not a cataclysmic event.

The Game Plan

Probably the biggest reason that our season did not end on the field when that knee-hawking dirty hit took Del Rio down, is that this offense does not rely on a superstar quarterback. It relies on a smart quarterback who limits mistakes, and makes the right reads, decisions and throws. As long as those thresholds are not profoundly unmet by the quarterback, this offense’s success will rest on the offensive line and running game, not the passing game. And more over, the team’s success will rely primarily on defense and special teams, not offense. If we are asking Appleby to win the game for us, then many very critical parts of the game plan will have already fallen apart. Badly. And historically speaking, Tennessee can be beaten with a strong defense, good special teams and a barely breathing offense. At the very worst, Appleby will have the Gator offense breathing shallow but steady. At the very best, there will be very little drop off from Del Rio and he will make some big plays in the game to help the cause.

Appleby of course also has the added advantage of having almost no film of him in this offense for Tennessee to dissect and use to prepare. In fact, the same may be said of the Gator offense as a whole. Many Gator fans were concerned or downtrodden when Florida failed to run up a big score in the opener, and those Gator fans found a lot more friends when Florida was even less successful at breaking the scoreboard against North Texas. The offense did not do much Saturday. But they didn’t try to do much: just line up and execute (which they didn’t do at a number of key points). We will see more of the offense come out against Tennessee, even with a backup quarterback. And it is hard not to recognize the difference in the energy level and focus of this offense when it was facing an SEC opponent as opposed to when it basically lined up against two scout teams.

Another advantage that Appleby has is that he is a bigger kid than Del Rio. Hard to bring down and a very good runner. Given the challenges still facing our young and apparently always injured offensive line, that could play a significant role in avoiding losses and extending plays. However, do not expect to see many, if any designed runs for the signal caller. Coach Mac doesn’t have many quarterback runs in his playbook and he isn’t going to suddenly change his offensive philosophy to try to get a couple additional first downs. Of course, with the expectation that Tennessee will be loading the box to stop the run, and sending frequent blitzes to try to confuse a backup quarterback, it would be hard to believe that Mac would not have a plan to exploit that. As such, Mac will want to maximize Appleby’s skill set, but within the construct of the usual offense. I will be looking for Austin to be given a green light to call his own number – maybe by audible, maybe not – if he sees the proper alignment and personnel to exploit on the other side of the line. With respect to running the ball on early downs and shorter distances, Austin may be put in the position of a baseball hitter with a 3-0 count: swing away only if he gets the exact location and type of pitch he is looking for. Replace swinging away with running the ball and we may be close to Appleby’s directive this week with his wheels (assuming he is the starter, which we all do). He will likely also be put in a moving pocket in different situations to help facilitate the best options for him if receivers are not open. This may translate to a half dozen runs. Much more than that would probably indicate that a lot of things are breaking down for Florida.

What About the Whatever Game?

Though it would be odd to read a column about football game and not read anything about that football game, in this case it would be more of a shame. That is because the defense deserves to take the spotlight after Saturday’s complete and scary-level domination. A big spotlight.

For those scoring at home, the Gators surrendered 53 total yards to the Mean Green, which is the fewest in school history. Read that again. In 109 years-and-change of playing football, over the course of 1,145 games, the Gators had never in program history held an opponent to so few yards until Saturday. They squeezed them for negative-13 rushing yards, 7^th-best in school history.

And this is just the latest for this dominating group. The Gators hadn’t held three-straight opponents to 10-or-fewer points since 1988. Those of us who were around to witness those Gator defenses of the 1980s know what impressive company that is. The last time a Gator team allowed fewer than 14 points in its first 3 games combined was 1961, when it allowed a collective 13 points to Clemson, FSU and Tulane en route to a 2-0-1 start to that year. Not only is this defense the only one in the nation to hold its first three opponents to under 200 yards, it is only one of five Gator teams in history to hold three opponents to under 200 at any time during the same season. Florida leads the nation in total defense (129.7 average, 75 yards better than the #2 team), sacks (16, 5.3 per game), scoring defense (4.7 points per game), and has held all opponents to just two touchdowns combined, best in the land (tied with two other teams: Miami, which has surrendered 23 total points in 3 games, and Stanford, which has given up 23 points in just 2 games). The Gators are also second in the nation in passing efficiency defense (60.39), passing yards defense (87.3) and rushing defense (42.3). Looking at the SEC, the Gators are the only SEC team this year to lock down its three opponents to fewer than 100 rushing yards.

So you see if I had filed this game report without tipping the cap to the guys defending the Florida end zone, the Gator defense might just get a little defensive.

Around the Horn

For purposes of tracking and forecasting the Gators’ potential this season, the scores and action around the college football world were very interesting to say the least. Ranked teams like Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Tennessee were exposed for the second game in three this season (although Tennessee managed to pull out both of their stinkers). Ranked teams like Texas, Iowa and Oregon all were dropped by unranked teams, while ranked teams Georgia and LSU needed some late game luck to outlast unranked teams, and #4 Michigan was in deep trouble for much of the game against unranked Colorado. FSU of course was exposed, filleted and fried in a pan. How interesting was it to watch the battle between two quarterbacks that Coach Mac almost turned to the Gators on national signing day a little over a year ago after about a month on the job. Had Mac had a few more weeks to make up for the damage done by the former coach, who knows what could have happened? Highly ranked Wisconsin was almost upended by Georgia State, which has only played five seasons of football in its history. At this point, the only team left on Florida’s schedule that looks potentially dangerous is Arkansas. And they needed a late touchdown pass to nip Louisiana Tech by one point in week 1. Many teams will be daunting of course and we should not expect many easy games the rest of the season, but from here, everyone looks beatable. Not just beatable, but beatable by the Gators – a distinction that hasn’t been part of the equation very often over the last 6 years.

And that’s a lot better than “Whatever”.