Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers
Date: Saturday, October 15th
Time: 4:00 PM
TV: SEC Network
Last Meeting: Last year Florida beat Missouri 21-3 in Columbia.
Last Time Out:
• Florida won at Vanderbilt 13-6
• Missouri lost at LSU 42-7
Missouri 2016 Breakdown:
• Head Coach: Barry Odom is 2-3 in his 1st year as Missouri Head Coach
• Conference: SEC East
• 2016 Overall Record: 2-3
• 2016 Conference Record: 0-2
Players to Watch:
• Sophomore Quarterback Drew Lock
Drew Lock after a tough freshman year has rebounded in a nice way and currently leads the SEC in passing yards with 1,675. In addition, he has thrown 14 touchdowns against 4 interceptions.
• Junior Defensive End Charles Harris
Harris was a preseason All-SEC selection. He has 3.5 sacks on the season and 12 career sacks. He had 3 of his sacks against Georgia.
5 Things to know about Missouri:
1. Missouri ranks atop the SEC in passing YPG and 8th nationally at 350 YPG.
2. Last year Missouri has 9 interceptions in 12 games, they currently have 7 through five games.
3. Since joining the SEC, Missouri is 7-5 on the road against SEC East opponents.
4. Missouri’s offensive line has allowed an SEC best 3 sacks. This number also ranks 6th nationally.
5. In 2 games in Gainesville, the Tigers have held the Gators to an average of 13.5 PPG.
5 Things to Pay Attention to:
1. Reaction to Distraction
One of these days there will be a normal day when it comes to Florida football. With LSU saga finally coming to an end, coupled with the ‘rebirth’ of the Grier saga the Gators will need to focus in on an opponent looking to pull off a big upset. In addition to the outside noise, the Gators have to also have homecoming activities. Hopefully Missouri is priority in their mind.
2. Del Rio difference
Now that we have seen 8 quarters of Austin Appleby compared to Luke Del Rio we can see some of the differences between the two. Del Rio returning should bring some leadership and efficiency back to the offense that has really struggled in 6 of those 8 quarters under Appleby’s command. What if the offense looks pedestrian again under Del Rio?
3. New wrinkles on offense
With all the occurrences that past week or so, the Vanderbilt game seems so long ago. With some time to rest and a day or two extra for Mac and Nuss to do some game planning, maybe the Gators bring a few new things to the table. With Del Rio returning we should see an expansion in the scheme that seemed rather vanilla under Appleby.
4. The scoreboard
While the Gators are taking on the Tigers the Volunteers will be taking on the Tide. By the time both games are over the Gators could be back in control of their own destiny in the race for Atlanta. It wouldn’t surprise me if the opportunity presents itself, you will hear a few cheers from the Swamp crowd should Rocky Top find themselves on the wrong end of the score.
5. Play count
The Gators defense has done a tremendous job getting off the field, especially when the offense keeps them fresh. In the one game that did not occur, the Vols roasted Florida for 35 2nd half points and running 79 plays in the game, largely in part to the lack of the offense’s ability to get a first down. The Tigers average 78 per game with their tempo, so winning 3rd down on defense and getting first downs on offense will go a long way to slowing down the Mizzou passing attack.
5 Things to Expect:
1. Home game energy
Maybe the best thing for this team is getting back in the Swamp. Playing at home in front of a supportive crowd can be one of the best remedies for distractions. The Gators should come out with some fire and look to make a statement.
2. A big play in the return game
This is probably going out on a limb here considering the production thus far. Eventually there has to be a breakthrough in this area, and this could be the week. Florida ranks 11th in the SEC in punt returns at 3.73 but Callaway is due for a big one.
3. Big difference in time of possession
Last time the Tigers took the field they managed 14 first downs in 17 minutes of possession. Their inability to stay on the field and create offense back fired in a major way giving up 418 rushing yards to LSU. Florida may not have the power to rack up that type of yardage but it will be important to be effective to keep the defense fresh. Florida should be able to control the ball throughout the game.
4. Angry Florida team
After the postponement of the LSU game the Florida team should be eager to play and make a statement. All the team has heard for three weeks is about their flaws and for some reason Florida’s fear of playing LSU. Missouri could be running into a buzz saw Saturday afternoon.
5. Improved offensive line play
Florida’s line and coaching has been under a watchful eye thus far. Despite injuries and player shuffling the Gators have surrendered just 3 sacks which ranks 14th nationally. Unfortunately, they have not been as consistent as desired. With Tyler Jordan able to play and the emergence of Jawaan Taylor, this line has an opportunity to improve moving forward.
5 Keys to Victory:
1. Protect the Quarterback
Missouri ranks 10th in the SEC in sacks per game but with Del Rio well enough to play but not necessarily 100%, protecting him is a premium. Del Rio isn’t exactly Lamar Jackson so he won’t be running all over the place. The line has struggled at times this year and will need a good game this week to help Luke stay comfortable in his first game back from the knee injury.
2. Limit the Explosives
Missouri is tied with Texas A&M for 2nd in the SEC with 8 pass plays over 40 yards. Tennessee was able to create some confusion in the Florida secondary to come up with some big plays in the passing game. Missouri has a different style but will look to create some big plays against a defense they won’t be able to sustain drives against.
3. Get the running game going again.
After two straight games of 240 plus yards the Gators totaled just 198 yards against Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Missouri is surrendering 189 YPG which is 10th in the SEC. We are hoping one of the backs can take the helm. Florida has not had a back get more than 17 carries in a game. The 4 headed running back rotation worked against Kentucky and North Texas. As the game goes, maybe the Gators need to settle on a guy.
4. Establish Antonio Callaway
Prior to the Vanderbilt game Callaway was averaging over 100 YPG. He is the one player on offense that actually scares a defense. It is vital that he is involved early and often. He gives Florida the big play threat needed to open space in the run game and create opportunities for the other receivers.
5. Win Special Teams
Missouri ranks 3rd in net punting and 4th in punt returns and it’s one of the areas where Missouri can turn the tide of the game. If they can force Florida into extended drives and help their offense with short fields. Florida was devastated against Tennessee because of the inability to flip the field. A couple first downs and special teams plays and the Gators can quickly find themselves in the fight.
5 Signs It Was a Good Day:
1. Del Rio proves his worth
Regardless of how we feel about Del Rio, the jury is still out on whether or not he is the quarterback of the future. Yes, he has shown his ability to lead the offense but a great showing on Saturday will go a long way to building confidence in him and his ability to lead this offense into the 2nd half of the season that just got tougher with a trip to LSU on the schedule.
2. There is intense pressure on Lock
Because of the quick passing game of Missouri, getting sacks can be difficult, but the Gators will still have an opportunity to get in his face and get him off of his spot. Florida will need strong performances from the reserves on the line, especially with Sherit and Ivie unavailable to play.
3. Offense gets back in balance
This Florida team will only go as far as their ability to create balance on offense. The passing game needs an effective and strong rushing attack to be seriously considered for a trip back to Atlanta. A 200/200 day out of the offense should be the mark every week. The 3 teams (Alabama, Auburn and Texas A&M) in the SEC hitting this mark are a combined 16-2.
4. Other receivers make plays
Outside of Callaway, Powell has been the only other receiver that has produced on a consistent basis. Florida has seen flashes of potential from Cleveland, Hammond and Swain but it is a lot to put on three true freshmen, if one of them cannot become a consistent reliable target maybe Worton or Fulwood will show what many have been waiting for.
5. Create multiple turnovers
Quincy Wilson and Jalen Tabor are playing at an All-American level and will continue to do so. The pressure will be on Drew Lock to find holes against a salty secondary and if Florida is Florida they should be able to come away with a pick or two. If this comes to pass Florida should be able to win this game comfortably IF the offense can capitalize.
Prediction:
The last time out the Gators did not look so good, but did come away with a victory. With all the breaking news, hot takes and conspiracy theories the Gators could easily be out of touch with the game on Saturday. That won’t be the case for the Gators though. Florida will come out and put together a solid performance, not great, but enough to get this team heading in the right direction before another bye week. The Florida defense will play spirited and that energy will lead to an easy score for the offense. Luke Del Rio’s return will help the Florida offense be more efficient and a resurgence in the running game will be the difference.
Florida 30 Missouri 10