Five list of five: Florida Gators vs. South Carolina edition

Florida Gators vs South Carolina Gamecocks

Date: Saturday, November 12^th

Time: 12:00 PM

TV: CBS

Last Meeting: Last year Florida defeated South Carolina 24-14 in Columbia.

Last Time Out:

• Florida lost at Arkansas 31-10
• South Carolina defeated Missouri at home 31-21

South Carolina Gamecocks Breakdown:

• Head Coach: Will Muschamp (33-25 overall and 5-4 in his 1^st year with South Carolina)
• Conference: SEC East
• 2016 Overall Record: 5-4
• 2016 Conference Record: 3-4

Players to Watch:

• Freshman Quarterback Jake Bentley

Bentley as a starter is 3-0. He has thrown for 622 yards, completed 73% of his passes, 6 touchdowns and zero interceptions.

• Freshman Running Back Rico Dowdell

Along with Bentley, Dowdell has sparked this offense since being the main running back the last three games. Dowdell is averaging 121 YPG in his last three games. On the season he is averaging 5.1 YPC.

5 Things to know about South Carolina:

1. This week’s game marks the 200th regular season SEC game for South Carolina (86-112-1).
2. The Gamecocks are 1-2 on the road this season and have dropped eight of their last nine true road contests.
3. Jake Bentley is the first South Carolina true freshman quarterback since 1992 (Steve Tannyhill) to win his first three games as a starter.
4. South Carolina is 2^nd in the SEC and 9^th in the country forcing 20 turnovers.
5. 80% of the Gamecocks rushing yards have come from freshman running backs. The highest percentage in the SEC.

5 Things to Pay Attention to:

1. Austin Appleby’s leash.
   Jim McElwain has said that he considered a quarterback change during the Arkansas game due to injury and now that situation has forced his hand. Florida will start Austin Appleby for the third time this year and there is a chance we could see Feleipe Franks as well. If Appleby plays like he has in 6 of the 8 quarters he has played how long before Mac and Nuss pull the trigger. If the game is close and Appleby is struggling does he go with a freshman to pull it out?
2. Jake Bentleys first road game.
   Since being put into the starting lineup Bentley has provided a spark to this team. This Saturday will be a completely different animal. Despite Florida’s injuries on defense they will still be a salty defense and with a home crowd behind them with Muschamp in the house, can Bentley maintain his level of play against a quality defense on the road.
3. Florida’s emotions
   There is a lot going on this Saturday and Florida’s emotions could be everywhere. It’s senior day, coming off of a loss, SEC East title still in play, a new quarterback is starting, injuries to key players and the coach that recruited you to Florida is coaching on the other sideline. Those factors should produce an energized Florida team, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they came out flat. We will learn more about the makeup of this team, especially from the leadership on this roster and on this staff.
4. Can Florida field a complete team?
   The injury to Luke Del Rio has garnered most of the attention, but there are other injuries that have just as much of an effect. Florida will be missing arguably the top linebacker duo in Davis and Anzalone. CeCe Jefferson is most likely out along with Cameron Dillard on the offensive line. Florida is the walking wounded right now with still three very physical games to play.
5. Will Muschamp
   On Saturday afternoon, Will Muschamp will walk onto Florida field the same way he left it. Under a wave of boo’s. Muschamp can deflect his coming back as much as he likes, but he is too much of a competitor to not want to stick it to the Florida Gators. Every break up isn’t bad and some just need to happen, but deep down inside the next time you see your ex, you want them to know you recovered and are in a better situation.

5 Numbers that Matter:

1. 2: Number of offensive touchdowns over 30 yards.
   For 5 years now Florida has struggled to make explosive plays and this year has not been any different. The Florida defense alone has touchdowns of 39, 78 and 37 yards this year. McElwain has to find a way to create explosive plays that change the scoreboard or this offense will continue to be perceived as pedestrian and that eventually hurts recruiting efforts.
2. 7: The PPG increase since Jake Bentley took over as starting quarterback.
   Under the leadership of Perry Orth and Brandon McIlwain the Gamecocks were averaging 14 PPG. Since then they are up to 29.7 PPG. Bentley has not just provided a major spark for the Gamecocks offense, but for the team overall.
3. 12-11: Florida’s record in November since 2011
   Florida has not been good down the stretch in recent seasons, even in the wins it has not been pretty all the time. Last year Florida had two scares from Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt before the embarrassing Florida State performance. With the lost last week to Arkansas and two road games at LSU and Florida looming, this has the potential to be another disappointing close for the Gators.
4. 10: The number of starters on Florida’s defense recruited by Will Muschamp.
   This will be an emotional game for the former Muschamp players and they would love to show Coach Boom an unfriendly welcome in his return to the Swamp.
5. 13-0: McElwain’s record when outrushing the opponent.
   With the quarterback position in flux, the Gators really need the running game to be on point. Last week the Gators totaled 12 yards on the ground. As much as we want to see a high flying attack through the air, this team is at its best when there is balance and positive yards in the running game.

5 Keys to Victory:

1. Protect the football
   The Gamecocks have been very opportunistic on defense and that could spell trouble for Florida if Appleby or Franks are not prudent with the ball in hand. In the last three games Florida has been -3 in turnover margin and that needs to improve to walk away with a victory.
2. Running game reemerges
   Two games in a row the Florida run game has been less than average. After Scarlett and Perine carried a heavy load against Georgia, they were non-existent against Arkansas for various reasons. Florida is not good enough under center right now to abandon the running game. If the Gators are going to beat South Carolina, the running game has to be on the forefront. The Gamecocks are giving up an average of 197.4 YPG rushing.
3. Match or exceed the Gamecocks energy and passion
   The loss to Arkansas has seemingly taken some of the air out of sails of the Gators, but there is still a lot to play for. We know that Muschamp will have his team ready to play with a chance to play a little more than just spoiler. Noon games have been a disaster at times for Florida and hopefully that is not the case this week.
4. Make Bentley look like a high school quarterback
   The Gamecocks currently have the worse rushing offense in the SEC at 120 YPG. Florida, despite injuries at linebacker, should be able to slow down their rushing attack. This will put a lot of pressure on Bentley to make plays against the Florida secondary which most quarterbacks have found to be a chore.
5. Execute, Execute, Execute!!!
   We can come up with a million reasons as to why the Florida offense has been going nowhere fast. We can blame personnel, coaching, play calling and scheme, but at the end of the day it comes to executing play by play. I am sure McElwain and Nussmeier are not in the film room and meetings coming up with ways to be bad on offense. Florida has missed plenty of opportunities because of bad execution under center, on the line or at receiver. Florida needs it to come together at the most important time of the season.

5 Predictions for Saturday:

1. Feleipe Franks see’s the field
   I do not think the leash for Austin Appleby is very long and at some point we will see Franks under center. The tricky part for McElwain will be is when will be best time to do so, well there probably isn’t a best time for it, he just needs to pull the trigger if the offense gets stagnant or looks down right bad.
2. Florida has 3 backs get 10+ carries
   Twice Florida has had three running backs get 10 or more carries, North Texas and Missouri. Florida averaged 271 YPG in those two games. Appleby and Franks will need the support of the run game and the Gators will make an effort to make sure that happens.
3. Callaway gets back on track
   Since back to back 100-yards games against Kentucky and Tennessee, Callaway has 14 receptions for 150 yards and his only touchdown came on an end around against Georgia. Expect Florida to get him involved early and often. This Saturday Florida will take advantage of the stronger armed quarterbacks and get Callaway going down the field.
4. David Reese has 10 + tackles.
   With South Carolina sure to run the ball often in this game, that puts a lot of the onus on David Reese to be in the right spot and make plays. He will not be Davis or Anzalone, but he will show up big on Saturday and be a major part of shutting down the Gamecocks rushing attack. This will be a coming out party for the true freshman from Farmington, Michigan.
5. Pineiro and Townsend come up big
   The Florida kicking game has been solid throughout the year even though Pineiro has missed a few chip shots. This will be a game we see Pineiro nail crucial kicks as well as see Johnny Townsend at his best consistently putting South Carolina in long field situations.

Final Prediction:

There is a lot of uncertainty surrounding this team and the remainder of the season. Florida will be starting a new quarterback and potentially playing a true freshman in Feleipe Franks. On the opposite sideline former Florida coach Will Muschamp wants to play spoiler and help Florida throw the rest of the season down the drain. The Gamecocks come in on a three game winning streak and will play the Gators tough.

Expect a tight game for the majority of the game. Florida has struggled finishing drives this year and that will come up again. In the end the Gators talent top to bottom will prevail. Despite the injuries in the front seven of the Florida defense, the secondary will be lockdown against the young but talented Gamecock receivers. Bentley will digress against better competition as well as this being his first road game. Florida’s pride won’t let them get upset and the offense finds a way to add a score late to put this game away.

Florida 23 South Carolina 14