Five list of five: Florida Gators vs. Arkansas

Florida Gators vs Arkansas Razorbacks

 

Date: Saturday, November 5th

Time: 3:30 PM

TV: CBS

Last Meeting: In 2013 Florida defeated Arkansas in Gainesville 30-10

 

Last Time Out:

 

  • Florida beat Georgia 24-10
  • Arkansas lost to Auburn 56-3

 

Arkansas Razorbacks Breakdown:

 

  • Head Coach: Bret Bielema 91-47 overall (11th year) 23-23 at Arkansas (4th season)
  • Conference: SEC West
  • 2016 Overall Record: 5-3
  • 2016 Conference Record: 1-3

Players to Watch:

 

  • Sophomore Running Back Rawleigh Williams III

Despite the Razorbacks being 12th in the SEC in rushing, Williams ranks 4th in the SEC with 807 yards rushing. Williams also 5 touchdowns rushing and one receiving.

  • Junior Quarterback Austin Allen

Allen ranks in the top 3 in the SEC in passing yards (2,048), completions (155), completion percentage (62%), touchdowns (18) and QBR (149.57).

 

5 Things to know about Arkansas:

 

  1. Arkansas is the only team in the SEC with 3 receivers with over 400 yards receiving.
  2. Under Coach Beilema that Razorbacks are 2-3 coming off a bye week with wins at home over LSU in 2014 and Auburn last year.
  3. Under Bielema the Razorbacks are 2-9 against top 10 opponents and 1-6 at home.
  4. Arkansas has lost nine in a row to Florida by an average score of 37-15.
  5. Since 2000 the Razorbacks are 8-12 at home against SEC East opponents.

 

5 Things to Pay Attention to:

 

  1. Luke Del Rio first true road game
    Last week Del Rio played his first game away from home and it was a ho hum performance. This week he will be challenged by a crowd hungry for an upset and how he responds will be the difference whether or not Florida walks away with a win.
  2. Can Arkansas Bounce Back?
    The last time Arkansas took the field they were annihilated by Auburn and had an extra week to get over it or overthink it. Saturday will be about redemption for the Razorbacks looking to prove they are better than that performance. This game is about the Arkansas mentality, if they are over the Auburn game and play inspired this game could get sticky.
  3. Arkansas Receivers vs Florida Secondary
    Under Beilema the Razorbacks have been known as a ground and pound team. This year that has not been the case, though they have a capable back in Williams they have not found the traction overall. Allen has been productive but if his receivers cannot find space against a suffocating Florida secondary the Razorbacks have a near zero chance to move the ball with any consistency.
  4. Overall communication on the road on offense
    Following the loss to Tennessee, Florida acknowledged issues in communication in the hostile environment. Razorback stadium doesn’t hold 100,00 plus but it will definitely be rocking. As noted earlier this will be Del Rio’s first time having to communicate when the crowd is not on his side. The margin for error is minimal with this offense and any breakdowns in communication could be bad news.
  5. Time of Possession
    Florida and Arkansas both rank in the top 15 in the NCAA in time of possession. Whoever can control the ball will be at a major advantage. With Florida’s ball control offense, efficiency on 3rd downs and lock down defense, they should be able to take control of the game and keep the defense rested.

 

5 Things to Expect:

 

  1. Don’t Let the Auburn Outcome Fool You
    Even though Auburn is still running as we speak, that is not what we should expect from Florida. The Razorbacks have struggled to stop the run giving up an average of 221 YPG but this team is better than 56-3. This team played Texas A&M and Alabama tough and Florida cannot allow the latest outcome to cause them to overlook this team.
  2. Florida to be challenged in the run game.
    It’s been stated before that the Razorbacks have plenty of holes in their run defense. Last week Jordan Scarlett had a season and career high 26 carries and chances are that he will not be able to have that same production two weeks in a row. Florida gets back Thompson and Cronkrite who should help the Gators rushing attack. Expect Arkansas to tighten up against some potentially tired legs for the Gators.
  3. Inspired Atmosphere
    Florida is walking into an atmosphere that will be loud and looking to play spoiler. Not only will the Razorbacks be rooting hard but something tells me a fan base in Knoxville will be doing the same. Over the last two years the Gators have not been great on the road but this would be a perfect time to turn that around.
  4. Better performance from Del Rio
    Since coming back from injury Del Rio has thrown 2 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. As Luke becomes more comfortable on his knee he will continue to get better. This week Del Rio will be closer to his early season form throwing for more than 200 yards for the first time since throwing for 320 against Kentucky.
  5. Plenty Momentum Swings
    In what will be a tightly contested game, there will be plenty of gut wrenching moments. This game could very well come down to the last few possessions. Arkansas games are always full of highlights and crazy moments and Saturday afternoon could prove to be one of those type of games.

 

5 Keys to Victory:

 

  1. Minimal Mistakes
    Arkansas is home, coming off a bye week and has shown the propensity to pull off a shocker every now and then. The only way the Razorbacks pull this one off is if Florida gives it to them. Florida ranks 6th in the SEC in turnover margin but they continue to have struggles with penalties ranking 110th in the country in penalties per game. Turnovers and penalties are kryptonite for a team that has lacked explosion and had struggles in the red zone.
  2. One Game at a Time
    Even though former coach Muschamp parted the seas for Florida to get back to Atlanta, it can’t be done this week. Motivation and focus should not be a problem for Florida this week. There is a lot on the line and overlooking the Razorbacks is the first step to they need to take towards getting back to the SEC Championship game.
  3. Avoid the Weird
    Some teams in the world of college football have a knack for being on the right side of weird things. Arkansas is one of those teams. IT can’t be explained nor planned for, the best you can do is take care of business and hope you don’t fall prey to it. Florida has not had to face much adversity this year and this could be another time they do.
  4. Start Fast
    Going into a road game against a wounded team, the best strategy is to start fast and kill any hope and momentum. Arkansas is a proud program and will play with pride. Florida cannot afford the start they had last week, nor can they depend on the defense to bail them out. It will be important to start this game with some fire and put it to a team the Gators should be able to handle.
  5. Finish Drives
    Florida has not shown the ability to be consistently explosive on offense, there have been flashes but nothing they can lean on. This puts more pressure on the offense and special teams when there is an opportunity to score. Florida has struggled in the red zone this year and Pineiro has been iffy at times kicking. As competition gets every opportunity missed become that much more magnified. Florida will have opportunities to score and settling or missing those opportunities is a sure fire way to get upset.

 

5 Signs It Was A good Day:

 

  1. Florida Goes over 200 Yards Rushing
    Last week Florida had to fight for every yard against a stout Georgia run D. This week they will have the opportunity to put up big numbers against one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Florida could also mix in some misdirection with Callaway and Powell. Arkansas has especially struggled with stopping the run against spread systems. The Gators could throw in a wrinkle or two to challenge the Razorbacks in that area.
  2. Callaway Finally Makes a Play on Punt Return
    I have added something each week concerning the return game and the unit’s performance has shown some minor improvement. We have yet to see Callaway pop the big one in the punt return and he is pressing a little bit back there. This week if he can pop one, it will create the momentum shift championship level teams create on the road to win games.
  3. Florida totals a minimum of 4 sacks
    The Gators rank 3rd in the SEC in sacks and Arkansas ranks 13th in sacks allowed. That is not a good combination. Florida will need to put pressure on Allen who has been nursing a knee injury, and force him into a few bad throws and potentially some turnovers.
  4. Rawleigh Williams is a non-factor
    Williams has a had a productive year averaging over 100 YPG. He has 100 more carries than the next back and will face another tough challenge against the Gators. Against Alabama Williams totaled 46 yards on 12 carries while Allen threw 48 times. That type of discrepancy and the Razorbacks are doomed.
  5. Defense keeps everything Calm
    There is a saying that defense travels and Florida will need that come Saturday. When things got tight last week the defense was able to keep things together and rule the day. The one time this year they got out of sorts they lost. When Florida gets put in tight spots the defense has proven to be a brick wall majority of the time.

 

Final Prediction:

 

In recent years the SEC East has not fared well against the West and Florida traveling to Fayetteville will not be an easy task. Arkansas has played teams tough at home and their only three losses have come to teams currently ranked in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff Poll.

 

This game will be tight throughout. This will not be a game Florida runs away. Despite the struggles on defense the Razorbacks will come to play and make life hard for this Florida offense. Arkansas has quality receivers on the outside but this is their biggest challenge yet. The Florida secondary will once again prove they are the class of the SEC against one of the more productive units in the conference.

 

Last week may not have been as emotionally draining as a rivalry game should be but the physical toll will show up in the play of Scarlett and Perine. Luke Del Rio will play well and do what he can’t to supplement for the less than average rushing attack.

 

Florida will continue to play dominant defense and as long as the offense keeps it clean and finishes drives they should would away with a win. Unfortunately, one too many mistakes will cause the Gators to fall on the road. Arkansas plays inspired and has just enough balance to create a big play in the passing game to come away with the upset victory at home.

 

Arkansas 23 Florida 20

Kevin Camps
Kevin, a lifelong Gator fan has followed and studied Florida football since 1990. He is a Gainesville native that has experienced many great triumphs of Florida football. Born and raised as a Gator, Kevin loves to talk and promote the Gator Nation. When not talking Gators, Kevin is spending time with his wife and five kids, serving in his church or grilling great bbq.

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