Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs

The Florida Gators are 6-1. They are also two wins away from an SEC East Championship for the second year in a row, something they haven’t done since 2009. Finally, they have beat the Gators have beaten the Georgia Bulldogs for the 21^st time in the last 27 years.

It wasn’t pretty on offense, as per usual the last six years, but the defense came to play and with some luck, are in the top-10.

Now, some of you may know from Twitter I didn’t watch the game live. I was in Norman, Okla. with my fiancé who went to the University of Oklahoma and celebrated their Homecoming game against Kansas. For years, I avoided going, so I had to go this time – don’t hate me. I tried to watch the game at their Campus Corner (think: Mid-town), but they were unwilling to change it off of Big XII games and when motocross came on the television after the Oklahoma State/West Virginia game – they simply changed it to the Golf Channel (which I am normally fine with). Begging and pleading with them with a fellow University of Florida alumnus, they final answer was, “we don’t watch the SEC here.” Well, OK.

Anyway, enough about that.

Because I wasn’t able to watch the game live, I was able to follow it on Twitter (which is hilarious) and then watch the game on Monday while sitting at the Dallas/Fort Worth airport.

I wasn’t thrilled, but not as mad as many on Twitter. Although, certainly, the hindsight of knowing who won the game always makes watching it easier and my feels were likely tempered because of that.

Some #HotTake Toughts

But before we move on, let’s remember three things: Florida is 6-1, two wins away from the SEC East Championship, and 21-6 in their last 27 against Georgia.

I read Twitter, the message boards, and comments on articles and you would think that Florida is 0-8 and has no hope for a football future.

From me to some of you: relax, it’s football, and while it’s not pretty, it’s not ugly, and they’re winning! Florida is 6-1, the second time in two years under Jim McElwain, something they haven’t done in back to back years since 2009.

Luke Del Rio is not perfect, and hell, he’s not even great. He is going to make bad choices, make some errant throws, and occasionally make you shake your head. But at the end of the day, he is undefeated as a starter at UF and is frankly their best option right now.

If Florida can continue to block the way they have on the offensive line, they should be able to run well against Arkansas and South Carolina, while efficiently passing for 175-250 yards and should be able to do enough on offense to score points against them, which is all you need out of Del Rio.

Scarlett ran well, Perine ran well, and couple that with a defense that is forcing the Gators to the 40^th best field position in college football, the Gators should be able to win the next two and clinch the SEC East – what more could you ask for?

Del Rio, whom I believe is still injured, will need to pass better to win more games, that’s a fact. But he also, gives the Gators the only shot at winning the next two games.

Offense

• The one big thing I am worried about on offense is their lack of explosiveness. The Gators rank 119^th in the country in explosiveness, 113^th in rushing plays over 10 yards (30), and only have 14 rushes that have gone 20-50 yards, among the lowest in the nation. In passing, they rank 84^th in the country in passes longer than 10 yards and only have 41 plays go longer than 20 yards, among the bottom third in the country.
• The Gators dropped 20 spots in average points per trip inside the 40, from 5.06 to 4.79. Something they had improved on.
• The Gators offensive line ranks 6^th in the country in allowing running backs to break past the line of scrimmage, a big improvement over last season where they ranked 68^th. They only had 3.43 points per trip inside the Bulldogs 40 yard line.
• Can we talk about the improvement in the offensive line? Many people were calling for the head of Mike Summers and wanted to burn the lineman, maybe sans Jawaan Taylor, at the stake, but they have really shown that once cohesive they are a good group.
• The Gators 2.08 yards per rush was the lowest they’ve had in a game since the SEC Championship last year.
• If Luke Del Rio keeps pace, he will be the Gators first 2,000-yard passer since John Brantley in 2011.
• The Gators were at 50% or better on third downs for the fourth time (in seven games) this year – they did that four times in 14 games last season.
• The Gators had three or more touchdowns in the red zone for the fourth time this season – they did that only four times last year, too. However, they still rank 122^nd in red zone offense.
• The Gators had 13 total drives, but only seven entered the opponent 40 yard or greater. They will have to improve that number to win against Arkansas, LSU, and Florida State.
• The Gators do well, in part, because of their starting field position. Again, they were helped by their defense who helped them start at their own 40.7 yard line.

All in all, the Gators can and must improve on offense. For them, it is a matter of execution because they have the field position, offensive line, and athletes to be a more productive offense.

Defense

• The Gators held an opponent to 14 or less points for the sixth time this season. They have only given up 82 total points, which is number two in the country – just 0.1 points behind number one Michigan.
• Gators moved to 2nd in the country (from 3rd) in fewest percentage of plays that result in a touchdown or first down — 21.53%
• The Gators climbed from 20^th in rushing yards allowed per game to ninth. For the third time this season, they held an opponent to less than 50 yards and the third time this season opponents have had a rushing average of 1.31 or less. The Gators have not held three opponents to less than 50 rushing yards in a season since 2012.
• The Gators have only allowed 418 players on defense this year for an average of 4.01 yards per play, which is second in the country.
• The Gators only allowed two scoring opportunities (allowed Georgia inside the 40 yard line). They rank 3^rd in the country in limiting points in scoring opportunities to 3.15.
• The Gators are only allowing opponents to average 5.43 yards per pass attempt – 4th in the country. Further, they only allow three yards per rush, which ranks 6th in the country.
• The Gators rank 5^th in the country in third down conversion stops and 4^th in the country in red zone conversion stops.
• The Gators allowed zero rushing first downs for the first time since before 2008, when my numbers go back to. The eight first downs they allowed are the lowest against an SEC opponent since 2014 (Missouri).
• On the season, opponents have targeted Quincy Wilson 25 times. He has only allowed eight receptions, one touchdown, and has three interceptions.

It is almost too gaudy to keep posting numbers. The Gators will have their hands a bit more full with Arkansas, Austin Allen, and Rawleigh Williams, both of whom are worse passers and rushers than the Gators have previously faced.

Special Teams

A quick note because I believe he always deserves praise:

• Johnny Townsend averages 47.6 yards per punt and 64.7% of them have landed inside the 20-yard line or have been fair caught. He ranks third in the country in yards per punt and fourth in the country in punt success rate. He is awesome, super talented, and one of the Gators best weapons.