Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

The Florida Gators still control their own SEC East destiny!

That is about the only positive I could glean from this weekend. It was a rough game at quarterback, on defense, and the fanbase’s sanguine attitude turned south after another rough game. While the Gators are 6-2, there is a sour mood surrounding a Gators team with two SEC games and a tough road game in Tallahassee. With little progress being made on offense over the last two years, fans are wondering when a change might come and how long is long enough to wait for competent offensive production?

Florida looked flat from the beginning of the game until the last snap of the game. They never looked like they wanted to be win the game or execute the basic fundamentals to win. They looked lethargic and lost – and for the first time in the 22 months that Jim McElwain has been in Gainesville, I’ve really question preparation. Last season, Florida lost because they didn’t have a capable quarterback able to execute fundamentals that you expect and need out of the role. This season, they have two more moderately capable quarterbacks (one that has been playing college football for five seasons and one that has been in Gainesville for two seasons) and the production is so substandard, you have to wonder what happens during the week.

The Gators must figure out how to move the ball because their defense can no longer be the only ones ready to play week-in and week-out because at some point, like on Saturday, they will crack.

There are a lot of expectations, many of whom I believe are premature, on Jim McElwain to deliver a drastically improved team. I think Jim McElwain make the SEC Championship is year one was a tough break for him because that is the expectation for year two – a year that still required massive rebuilding. Florida had a Purdue transfer and a two-time transfer at quarterback and that is not a winning recipe for success, particularly with a lack of true development at the offensive line position. Am I making excuses? Maybe. But my position has always been – UF was three good years away from dramatic change, no matter who took over at head coach. McElwain is not perfect, and changes need to be made now and in the offseason, but let’s not over-react just yet.

Let’s look at some numbers and we will keep it short because I know it’s tough to read.

Offense

• Florida has really, really struggled in the third quarter the last two seasons. Last season, they finished the year as the 100^th worst 3^rd quarter offense. This season, they rank 123^rd. They have their fewest yards per play and fewest total plays in the 3^rd quarter, and by far the fewest number of plays go for first downs or 10+ yards.
• The Gators have dropped to 98^th in fewest points when entering the opponent 40-yard line – 4.06.
• UF averages starting on their 30-yard line, and coupled with the fact that they aren’t scoring, they rank, according to SBNation’s Bill Connelly, as the 122^nd most explosive offense. Ergo, they are starting at a good field position spot, but not moving the ball or scoring, and doing it really slowly.
• Florida has now had their second game in nine games where they averaged less than one yard per rush. On 14 rushes they had 12 yards (0.86 yards per carry). It is also the fifth time this season; they have averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Over the last two games, they have averaged 1.8 yards per carry.
• The 10 points in the Gators scored was the lowest against an SEC opponent in the regular season since 2013 (LSU – 6).
• The Gators five interceptions in the last three games is the worst three game streak since 2014 (7).
• Florida drops to a 70% red zone scoring percentage, ranking 125^th in the country.
• With 4.4 catches per game, the Gators receiver has the most catches of any Gators player since 2009 (Aaron Hernandez).
• Florida went 1-for-11 on third down, their lowest conversion percentage since the SEC Championship last season and lowest in a regular season game since 2013 against FSU and lowest in a regular season SEC game since 2008 against Ole Miss (The Promise game).
• The Gators had their least penalized game since last season against New Mexico State.
• With Austin Appleby likely starting on Saturday, the Gators have had a backup quarterback start three or more games every year since 2013.

Defense

• The Gators let up 466 yards and 6.21 yards per play average. That is the second time they have allowed more than 450 yards this season (Tennessee).
• First time since 2014, they have allowed more than 30 points in two regular season games.
• In the first five games of the season, the Gators had 19 sacks. In their last three, they have three.
• The Gators currently rank 11^th in the country in fewest points per drive inside their 40-yard line.
• With their third pick-6 on the season, the Gators have their highest total since 2010 (4).
• With Jarrad Davis, Alex Anzalone, and CeCe Jefferson (likely out) out of the game next week, they have lost 24.8% of their total team tackles.

Special Teams

• Because Nick de la Torre loves punters: Johnny Townsend continues to be a shining star. He ranks 5^th in the country in punt average, 4^th in punt success rate, and has a 65.9% fair catch/down inside-the-20 percentage.