Florida Gators vs Vanderbilt Commodores Breakdown
Date: Saturday, November 7, 2015
Time: 12:00 PM
TV: ESPN
Last meeting: 2014 Florida defeated Vanderbilt 34-10 in Nashville. Florida leads the all-time series 36-10-2.
Last time out:
• Florida defeated Georgia 27-3
• Vanderbilt loss to Houston 34-0
Meet the Commodores:
• Head Coach: Derek Mason (6-14 in his 2nd season at Vanderbilt)
• Conference: Southeastern Conference Eastern Division
• 2015 Overall Record: 3-5
• 2015 Conference Record: 1-3
• Rank: Not Ranked
Player(s) to Watch:
• Sophomore Running Back, Ralph Webb. Webb has rushed for 693 yards this year with 4 touchdowns and is averaging 3.9 ypc. He also has 21 receptions and 2 touchdowns.
• Sophomore Linebacker, Zach Cunningham. Cunningham has emerged as the best defensive player for the ‘Dores. He leads the team with 59 tackles, 10.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks and 3 forced fumbles.
5 Things to Know About Vanderbilt:
1. Vanderbilt is 2-10-1 vs. Florida when they are the Gators homecoming opponent.
2. Vanderbilt will be seeking its first victory over a team ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 in more than two years when it faces Florida. The team’s last win over ranked foe came against No. 19 Georgia in October 2003.
3. The Commodores have allowed opponents to convert 25% of their third downs, tops in the SEC and fifth nationally.
4. Vanderbilt has shown improvement on offense from 2014. Last year they averaged 266.6 ypg, this year that is up to 360.4 ypg. That still ranks 13th in SEC.
5. The Commodores have committed 3 or more turnovers in five games this season. They are 1-4 in those games – the lone win coming against Middle Tennessee.
5 Things to Pay Attention To:
1. Florida’s Attitude.
Though Vanderbilt could easily be overlooked and taken for granted, the Gators have a lot to play for. Coming home for homecoming and with a trip to the SEC Championship on the line, will the Gators come out and play their normal game or will they press a little bit.
2. Gators Offensive Line Play.
Florida’s offensive line has not been as bad as some predicted, but they surely are not a dominate force. They could potentially be without two started in Sharpe and Ivey. Vanderbilt has the 4th ranked rushing defense in the conference and will look to challenge the Gators line and hopefully stifle the Gators rushing attack.
3. Vanderbilt Quarterback Rotation.
The Commodores have played two quarterbacks the last two games trying to find some stability at the position. Last week against Houston, quarterbacks Johnny McCrary and Kyle Shurmer combined for 44 passing yards. Shurmer suffered an injury in that game and if he is not a go this Saturday, the Commodores will lean on McCray who has thrown twice as many interceptions as touchdowns. Wade Freebeck could also see the field.
4. Demarcus Robinson and Brandon Powell.
While Antonio Callaway is turning himself into the primary weapon in the passing game. Robinson and Powell have not been as productive. These next few weeks will be an opportunity for both of these guys to make plays and get future opponents to respect their production and help improve the passing game.
5. Time of Possession.
Despite being last in the SEC in turnover margin, Vanderbilt has held the time of possession advantage in all but one game (Houston). If they can maintain their effectiveness on 3rd down defense, be somewhat effective running the ball and not turn the ball over they can make this a short game and play themselves into a 4th quarter game.
5 Things to Expect:
1. Another Treon Big Play Improvising.
Treon has become quite the annoyance for teams trying to defend him when plays break down. Three weeks ago against LSU, he managed multiple big plays on the run and last week against Georgia he hit another big play for a touchdown on the run, with other plays mixed in to get out of trouble and keep drives alive. Derek Mason called him a rabbit they will try to keep in the cage, but expect Treon to get free and make more things happen with his feet.
2. Taylor and Scarlett Developing a 1-2 Punch.
Last week Taylor and Scarlett combined for 217 yards rushing on 34 carries. McElwain in his time at Alabama showed the ability to balance two backs, and as the passing game evolves, these two will become a major part of the offense. Taylor has scored 10 touchdowns so far and has an opportunity to reach 1,000 yards. If Scarlett can build on his 96 yard performance last week, that gives Florida something to ride in the home stretch of the season.
3. Vandy to Struggle on Offense.
Against FBS opponents Vanderbilt has yet to score 20 points in a game. Last week they were shut out against Houston and this week go on the road to face one of the best defenses in the Country. If Vanderbilt has any consistent success on offense would be a surprise to every in the Swamp. Expect some different wrinkles to get some movement on offense.
4. A lot of Ralph Webb.
If Vanderbilt has any chance of moving the ball on offense it is going to come on the legs of the Gainesville native running back. Webb has rushed for 693 yards this season despite an inexistent passing attack. Last year against Florida he ran for 83 yards and 16 carries.
5. Florida to Continue to Start Fast.
Florida has scored first in all but one game this year and expect that to continue on Saturday. McElwain is looking for a lot of energy from the team as well as the fans. Expect the Gators to jump out early and seize control over an inferior opponent.
5 Keys to Victory:
1. Be Motivated and Get After It.
Florida is a better team than Vanderbilt and should be able to dominate this game. The Gators need to seize control of this game from snap one and not give the Commodore any breath of life. McElwain continues to challenge the maturity and focus of this team. This week will be another test with so much opportunity available with a win or missed opportunity with a loss.
2. Stop Webb.
As stated earlier Webb is the primary weapon for the Commodore offense, he will come in looking to perform well against his hometown team. If Vandy is one dimensional, McCrary and Shumer have not shown much ability to beat any secondary, much less one the quality of Florida.
3. Play Clean Football.
The only way Vandy can win this game is if Florida doesn’t show up and commits a plethora of turnovers and penalties. The Commodores will play solid defense and look to create some turnovers, but Florida has a +13 turnover margin and that trend of creating turnovers and not turning it over will be the number one focus of this team.
4. Continue to Build around Treon’s Ability.
After two full starts, Treon has struggled at times throwing the ball. This may just be one of those years when unconventional wins out. Treon is tremendous with his feet when plays breakdown. That is not an excuse for him not to grow in the pocket, but Florida will need to continue to find ways to take advantage of his feet to keep this offense growing and moving.
5. Get the running game going.
After a poor performance against LSU, Florida came back against Georgia and continued their dominance over the Dawgs running for 258 yards. This week they need to continue to build on the running game, that will be the primary offensive attack as the season goes forward.
5 Signs It Was a Good Day:
1. Atlanta, Georgia is in the Future Travel Plans.
This team has done a remarkable job fighting through adversity and challenges on and off the field. They have put together a special season and if Saturday is the culmination of it all, it will be a testament to the staff, player growth and all those involved in the Gators becoming SEC East champs, including the fans.
2. Offense goes over 200+ Rushing Yards.
Florida’s run game has been serviceable all season, but could be on the verge of becoming a very nice weapon with the hopeful emergence of Jordan Scarlett. Vanderbilt is tough against the run only allowing over 200 yards in a game once against Georgia, but Florida is capable of getting to that number.
3. Josh Grady Sees Extended Time.
It would be great to see Grady get some extended time on the field against his former team. If Grady is on the field for a few drives that means the Gators are preparing to celebrate a big victory. Grady has been a tremendous addition to this team and hopefully he can be rewarded by seeing some action against Vanderbilt.
4. Defense Gets Multiple Turnovers.
Vanderbilt has been a turnover machine this year committing 21 turnovers, tied for last in the SEC, but are last in the SEC with a -11 turnover margin. The Gators are first in the SEC with a +13 turnover margin. This is be bad news for Vanderbilt.
5. Kicking Game is Solid.
Last week Florida missed a field goal as well as had an extra point blocked. Those areas need to be cleaned up and build some confidence in that area, that if a critical situation required them to produce, the staff can trust that they can get it done.
The Prediction:
I believe Vanderbilt is walking into a buzz saw, the Gators will be motivated and ready to seal the up the SEC East race and play with some pride and end the homecoming game losing streak in the process. Florida will come out strong, fast and take control of this game with a dominant defensive performance creating easy scores for the offense. Treon will have a solid day throwing the ball, Kelvin Taylor and Jordan Scarlett will control the second half as the Gators celebrate their first trip to the SEC Championship game since 2009.
Florida 38 Vanderbilt 7