Why Have Florida Basketball Teams Struggled To Rebound The Ball?

Looking at who the Gators have contacted on the transfer market it’s clear that they are looking to improve an important aspect of their game that has struggled in the Mike White era and that’s defensive rebounding. Taking care of the glass has been an issue recently, something evidenced be their national ranking in defensive rebound rate which has been rather unflattering:

2020: 150th
2019: 313th
2018: 256th
2017: 193rd
2016: 162nd

As you can see, this is a problem that has spanned multiple years, through multiple personnel and scheme changes, all of which have resulted in teams that are somewhere between poor and mediocre when it comes to ending defensive possessions with a rebound. To try and help combat the problem the Gators have already reached out to two of the best rebounders in the country that happen to be available on the transfer market in Kevin Marfo (Quinnipiac) and Dwight Wilson III (James Madison). Both of these players offer little value in elements of the game other than rebounding, so the fact the coaching staff might be willing to take them and sacrifice offensive flow and defensive versatility for rebounding gain shows just how serious they are about the matter.

Another cause for concern regarding the defensive glass is that the Gators are losing Kerry Blackshear Jr., their best defensive rebounder, to graduation and Keyontae Johnson is likely to go pro and he was second to Blackshear in defensive rebound rate. Those were the only two players on the roster who were above the national average for defensive rebound rate at their positions, so there certainly is a cause for concern when it comes to the Gators taking care of the boards next season. Anthony Duruji was a decent rebounder in his final year at Louisiana Tech and Osayi Osifo used his bounciness to get tough boards in junior college, but while they will add some required athleticism it may not be enough to drastically change the rebounding culture at Florida.

Let’s look back at the 2017 team, the best squad White has had in his time at Florida. Not only were they a great defensive team, but they had the size and length you’d associate with a strong rebounding team, often rolling out lineups with 6’6” Canyon Barry at the 2, 6’9” Devin Robinson at the 3, 6’8” Justin Leon at the 4, and 6’11” John Egbunu at the 5 (for most of the year). Even though that team didn’t lack for length and athleticism they still were rather pedestrian when it came to rebounding the basketball. This past season Omar Payne and Jason Jitoboh, both players with the skill sets to dominate the glass, were both well below average defensive rebounding centers.

With a multi-year sample size of Florida struggling to rebound the basketball it’s safe to say that there are some long-term schematic decisions that are playing at least some role in the issue.

For starters, let’s talk about the way Florida has guarded ball screens, often with the big hedging out towards the ball handler before sprinting back to cover his man. This has resulted in defensive rebounding issues for a few reasons. First of all, this defense requires the big man, typically your best defensive rebounder, to sprint out to the level of the ball. Having one of your bigs out that far away from the hoop means he won’t be in defensive rebounding position for at least a few seconds, and when it comes to guarding pick and rolls those few seconds can consist of multiple swings of the ball and a shot attempt. The other downside of this hedging style of defense is that it can force a lot of switches. When the big man is hedging it’s the responsibility of a help side defender to take, or “tag” the roll man. With the way most teams spread out in pick and roll it’s often the point guard who is in this help side position, and for Florida that meant Andrew Nembhard having to switch onto rolling big men often. While he was able to hold a steady base and defend any initial attempts, asking him to box out a center is a difficult assignment, much like it was when Noah Locke, Tre Mann, or Ques Glover was in the same position. Florida used to switch more ball screens in the past and they got exploited in similar ways leading them to do it far less often, but the hedging defense has resulted in switches off the ball that can have the same negative results in box out scenarios.

Another element of Florida’s defensive scheme that has contributed to their defensive rebounding struggles is a philosophy to limit opponent’s 3-point attempts. The Gators have been aggressive in chasing potential shooters off the line, banking on their help defense to protect the rim if the offensive player is to attack the aggressive closeout. When it comes to 3-point attempts allowed (3PA/FG) the Gators have been below the national average in every season under White, meaning they have executed the scheme properly in limiting threes.

Their national ranks:

2020: 116th
2019: 161st
2018: 46th
2017: 28th
2016: 70th

This is a solid, analytically driven approach to defending but it’s not without its drawbacks, one of them being when it comes to defensive rebounding. Contrary to popular belief, long shots do not create longer rebounds. You’ll hear that statement uttered regularly by coaches and color commentators, but it’s not rooted in fact and actually the opposite is true and multiple studies have shown that it’s shots near the rim that create more offensive rebounds. In Florida’s case, a lot of offensive rebounds were given up when a play started with an aggressive close out to take away a 3-point attempt. The offensive player would attack the closeout and another Gator, usually a big man, would have to rotate to help. By rotating to help, that player has left his check unoccupied near the rim in a perfect offensive rebounding position if a shot went up.

Take a look at this. Here are the top ten teams in the country in adjusted defensive rebounding percentage, or, in layman’s terms, the best defensive rebounding teams. In parenthesis you’ll see their national rank in 3PA/FG.

Virginia (315th)
North Carolina (286th)
Clemson (332nd)
Indiana (210th)
Louisville (282nd)
UCLA (191st)
Butler (189th)
Rutgers (295th)
Virginia Tech (314th)
Ohio State (236th)

As you can see, the best defensive rebounding teams in the country actually allow far more 3-point attempts than most teams, and allowing contested 3-point looks has seemingly allowed their defense to stay structured enough to stay in proper defensive rebounding position.

Should Florida entirely change up their defensive philosophy to try and improve their defensive rebounding? Perhaps not entirely, but factoring in how your team is going to be able to defensively rebound should weigh heavily into the decision of defensive strategy nearly as much as how you’re going to defend an initial shot.

It’s clear Florida wasn’t a great defensive rebounding team last year, but just how much did their struggle at times to end possessions with a rebound hurt them? There are a few ways to approach this question. First, anecdotally you can look at some of the games they lost where rebounding really hurt them. The Kentucky losses, the defeat at the hands of Baylor, the manhandling by Florida State… There are a few games where you can point to Florida’s lack of control on the glass as a reason they lost, but let’s try to get a lot more analytically accurate on just how much an offensive rebound surrendered hurt the Gators.

Let’s start with an easy, simplistic way to find an answer. What happens when you give up an offensive rebound? The opposing team gets an extra possession. Defensively on the season the Gators gave up 0.97 points per possession in conference play, so you could simply look at that and have a decent answer. An offensive rebound to the opposing team gives them an extra possession, on average an offensive possession to Florida’s opponents yields 0.97 expected points, so that could be what you say an offensive rebound surrendered is worth.

That isn’t terrible logic, but it’s a bit of a shortsighted view. You see, possessions off offensive rebounds aren’t like normal offensive possessions. Possessions started with an offensive rebound usually mean a player now has the ball right up close to the hoop, and it’s entirely likely the defense isn’t set because everyone was scrambling for the basketball. This means the opportunity for an immediate put back and an uncontested or lightly contested layup is high, and that makes it a valuable shot. Additionally, the offensive rebound can be what leads to one of the highest value shots in basketball—the inside-out catch and shoot three. These catch and shoot threes are extremely valuable because a shooter is already looking towards the hoop, and the nature of a scramble play off an offensive rebound means a shooter is likely totally open.

I went through and charted every possession the Gators defended after giving up an offensive rebound to find out exactly how damaging an offensive rebound allowed was, and this is what I found.

Following an offensive rebound, Florida’s opponents were at 1.1 points per possession. That number is a definite step up from an average possession, which shows why defensive rebounding is so important. When you think of giving up an offensive rebound giving an expected point value of 1.1 to your opponent, each missed box out by the Gators has context that shows how damaging it can be.

Think of it this way—if Florida was a mildly better defensive rebounding team, like I’m talking only 3% better, and you factor that into their average number of possessions in a game, that would be 2 less offensive rebounds allowed per game. That would take 2.2 points off the board for their opponents, but being only a slightly better defensive team.

That level of math-ball might be unsavory to you, and 2 points might not sound like a lot, but remember that 12 of Florida’s 31 games were within two possessions last season, and 2 points would have mattered a ton in those contests. Basketball is a game about incremental gains, about winning on the margins in multiple categories that all combine for a total victory, and rebounding is a big area where games can be won and lost.

Hopefully these numbers show the importance of rebounding and why it will be a key element of the game to watch next year. Defensive rebounding has been one of the limiting factors in Florida’s game over the last few years and cleaning that up could be a major step in getting the program back to the heights they aspire to, and some schematic changes in how they defend could go a long way in securing the glass.

Eric Fawcett
Eric is a basketball coach and writer from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. His work has been found at NBA international properties, ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Lindy's and others. He loves zone defenses, the extra pass, and a 30 second shot clock. Growing up in Canada, an American channel showing SEC basketball games was his first exposure to Gator hoops, and he has been hooked ever since. You can follow him on Twitter at @ericfawcett_.