Written by Kevin Camps:
With the win over Georgia in Athens, the Florida Gators basketball team have surpassed their win total from the previous year and remain in good position to get back into the NCAA tournament field. In a gritty performance the Gators pulled out a game we probably didn’t think they could win. After the disappointing loss at home Saturday against Alabama the Gators needed a strong performance on the road to get things back on track.
If not for the young freshman KeVaughn Allen getting hot in the second half, scoring 14 of his 19 points in the second half, we might be talking about a different story. On a night when Florida’s leading scorer Dorian Finny-Smith managed to score only seven points, the Gators needed a strong showing from elsewhere to walk away with the victory. Down the stretch Florida had big baskets from John Egbunu and Devin Robinson, as well as key penetration and passes from Kasey Hill.
Now Florida enters a five game stretch that includes road games at South Carolina, LSU and Missouri as well as home games against Vanderbilt and Kentucky. This will be a defining stretch for a team still struggling to find consistency putting the ball in the cylinder from anywhere on the floor including the free throw line.
The Gators have not sealed their place in the field of 68 and need a few more quality wins to do so. They will have an opportunity in the next five games to accomplish that. The Gators will have a chance against RPI top 100 teams, Kentucky (12), South Carolina (35), Vanderbilt (67), and LSU (71) to make more noise and position themselves for a better run in the SEC tournament. Florida is currently ranked 27th in the RPI with an opportunity to trend up against quality opponents.
Scheduling has played an important part for the Gators this year. Often times to hard of a schedule can get the best of teams and too easy of a schedule can also keep teams out of the tournament. Florida’s non-conference schedule currently ranks 2nd in the nation and 9th in strength of schedule overall.
The SEC has a strong chance to get five times in the field but after that it gets a little dicey, so it is important that the Gators finish strong down the stretch, especially holding serve at home. Florida is currently tied for 3rd with South Carolina and Texas A&M in the SEC at 8-5 with a chance to get into the top four of the conference with a win in Columbia this weekend. Getting into the top 4 of the conference standings is important to get the bye until the 3rd round and not having to play until the Friday of the tournament.
Florida Gators head coach Mike White is still searching for consistency on the offensive end, but the effort has been there for a team that lacks explosion. Coming down the stretch Florida will continue to lean on the versatility of Finney Smith, who for some reason seems to struggle against Georgia. This year he is averaging 7 ppg and shooting 4-19 from the floor in two games versus the Bulldogs. Between the two games versus Georgia, Finney-Smith had scored in double figures 12 consecutive times including five 20 point performances.
On top of needing the consistency and versatility of Finney-Smith, Florida will need the scoring consistency of Allen to make any significant run in March. One thing we have learned about tournament play is that one or two players have the ability to carry a team a long way, see UConn 2014. With Dorian and KeVaughn the Gators have two players who can go for 20 plus points or more on any given night. If White can find a way to get these two good looks on a consistent basis, Florida has the ability to make it to the second weekend, but if they cannot score, Florida could easily be bounced in the first round.
As the Gators close out the season in these last five games and enter tournament play, they will need solid performances from other contributors beyond Finney-Smith and Allen. This includes guards Chris Chiozza and Kasey Hill as well as Devin Robinson and John Egbunu in the post. White has shrunk the bench but may need some quality minutes from the likes of Schuyler Rimmer, Francis-Ramirez and others.
Many of us are still trying to get a read on this team and we are not sure what to expect from Mike White coming down the stretch. Remember he has never won a conference tournament nor had a team appear in the NCAA tournament despite having his last three teams at Louisiana Tech finish a combined 83-24 but only making it as far as the NIT quarterfinals. This will be a new experience for him and his staff as well.
As the committee evaluates this edition of the Florida Gators they will see a team that has been inconsistent at times, but a team that has played well enough to deserve a spot in the big dance.
I think this is an excellent analysis of the Gator basketball season. Although I think, based upon strength of schedule, the Gators deserve to be included in the Big Dance, I am concerned about the remaining five games on our SEC schedule. We could be underdogs in four of those five, and I think we may have to win at least two of them to remain competitive for an NCAA bid. After all, we are one of five SEC teams with at least seven SEC wins, and there are several more right behind us. The next five games, and our first SEC Tournament game, may be decisive about whether we receive the bid we want.