Coming off an explosive 116-74 victory over Gardner-Webb University, the Gators now play host to the North Florida Ospreys. This will be the third consecutive year that the Gators have taken on this in-state opponent, as they matched up with the Ospreys in the 2016 NIT (winning 97-68) and last year on December 1st (winning 91-60). With the graduation of star sharpshooter Dallas Moore the Ospreys have definitely taken a step back, however that didn’t made them shy when scheduling games for this season. In addition to the game against Florida, they take on LSU, Miami, Missouri, and Mississippi State, and they are already well into their season having played Michigan State, Michigan, and VCU. Don’t say North Florida doesn’t like a challenge. Coming into Gainesville 0-3 the Ospreys will be hungry for a win and after already facing three tough opponents they won’t be nervous to play a talented Gators team. Here is what can be expected from North Florida on Thursday.
Talented Trio
Everything for North Florida goes through their three starting guards J.T. Escobar, Garrett Sams, and Ivan Gandia-Rosa. Combined they are averaging 61% of the Ospreys points so keeping these players contained will be the number one priority for the Gators defensively. Their weapon of choice: the 3-pointer. Those three alone have shot 60 3-point attempts through three games and they have all been knocking them down at a superb rate (Sams 50%, Gandia-Rosa 47.8%, Escobar 57.9%). North Florida doesn’t have a lot of depth as their starters have shouldered 74% of the minutes thus far this season, so expect heavy minutes from this trio.
Offense
Live by the three, die by the three. That’s exactly what North Florida does. A whopping 51% of their points have come from beyond the arc this season so it’s apparent what they will be focusing on when they have the ball. Knocking down a superb 44% of their deep balls this season (47th in the country so far), they have executed their game plan pretty well with the ball in their hands. Most of these shots come in transition and before the defense can get set up, so you can bet they look to push the rock whenever they get a steal or defensive rebound. They are 29th in the country in adjusted tempo, so if the Gators can slow them down they won’t just prevent fast break layups but also the trail 3s the Ospreys are always hunting for. Long shots mean long rebounds so shoring up things on the glass will be in the front of everyone’s minds. The Gators gave up 10 offensive rebounds to Gardner-Webb on Monday, and I’m sure they’ll want to keep that column to single digits moving forward.
Defense
The Osprey’s defense, at least statistically speaking, looks pretty bad so far (we’re talking 311th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency). At the same time they’ve played one of the toughest schedules in the nation so far, so a lot of their numbers could be negatively inflated. What we do know is that they play fast and frantic defense, no matter if they are pressing up on a team 94 feet or trapping and doubling them in the half court. This style of feast-or-famine defense means they are going to give up quick shots, as they give up the 21st shortest average possessions in college basketball. Teams that press and trap are always trying to goat you into taking a particular shot, so utilizing intelligent shot selection and not playing down to what the Ospreys are trying to get you to do will be the key here. This is evidenced in the fact that North Florida has limited opponents to only taking 26% of their field goal attempts from three, well below the national average of 36.6%. Additionally, they haven’t given up a lot of makes, holding teams to just a 32.1% conversion rate. Coming off a hot shooting performance against Gardner-Webb I’m sure the Gators will be trying to get lots of jumpers up, so whether they can show the restraint to only take the good quality looks they get will be an interesting storyline. North Florida will also be looking to get plenty of steals out of their pressure, so if the Gators can replicate their 8 turnover performance from game one of the season the coaching staff will be very satisfied.
Size Discrepancy
One area the Gators will have an advantage is in the size department. Listing only 3 players on their roster heavier then 200 pounds (coming in at 200, 200, and 205 pounds) North Florida will be giving up some serious bulk. Look for Keith Stone to be more aggressive and for the rest of the frontcourt to really dominate the backboard. Without much shot blocking the Gators need to make sure not to fall in love with the jump shot, but to also look to get layups at the rim.
Depth
North Florida only goes 9 deep, and only has given 26% of available minutes to their bench. To contrast, the Gators gave 42% minutes to bench players (obviously this was only after one game that was a blowout). If this game is a track meet the Gators should be plenty fresh and ready to give 40 minutes of hard effort. If freshman Michael Okauru can play as well as he did on Monday then Chris Chiozza can have a chance to rest his shoulder a bit, something I think all Gator fans would appreciate.
Key Gators
Egor Koulechov and Jalen Hudson scored the ball really well in their season debuts, but they weren’t able to defend on the perimeter the way Coach White was expecting them too. Now facing a more talented backcourt, they’ll need to really show dedication to moving their feet to chase around these elite shooters, as well as being disciplined in their closeouts to limit open shots but also to not give up dribble drives after a pump fake. After being quiet in the first contest, fans will be looking for more out of Keith Stone who should have a favorable matchup against a small Ospreys frontcourt. Not picking up cheap fouls, getting in hard on the glass, and getting a few easy buckets could go a long way in building up his confidence before we get to the meat of Florida’s non-conference schedule.
What are you expecting against North Florida? Leave a comment here or post on the Gator Country forums.