This weekend’s Super Regional between the No. 3 Florida Gators and No. 13 Wake Forest Demon Deacons draws a great deal of interest to Gainesville, mostly because the two teams are polar opposites.
The best-of-three series will put the strengths of both clubs to the test. Gator Country is here to bring a closer look at the ins and outs of this win or go home matchup.
Schedule:
Saturday, 3 p.m. (ESPN)
Sunday, 3 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2)
Monday, TBA 1 p.m./4 p.m./7 p.m. (ESPN/ESPN2)
How they got here:
The Gators have been one of the best teams in the country this season, accumulating a 45-17 record with a 21-9 record in the SEC, good for a share in the SEC regular-season title.
Florida was already in post-season form, playing its best baseball of the season leading up to the SEC Tournament, but it’s been a bit of a shaky road since then. An outstanding month and a half of baseball seemed far in the rearview after the Gators laid an egg in a 16-0 conference tournament elimination loss to Arkansas.
Florida narrowly escaped the Gainesville Regional, relying on a JJ Schwarz three run homer to pad a one run lead in the eighth inning of an eventual 10-6 win over Marist, then outlasting USF for a 5-1 win in a 12-inning pitching duel before facing Bethune-Cookman in the regional final.
The Gators were on the brink of elimination after a 6-2 loss to the Wildcats on Sunday, but bounced back to take Monday’s game 6-1 and advance.
“It was a valuable lesson for us on Sunday night,” head coach Kevin O’Sullivan said of the Regional loss. “I’m not saying that we took them for granted, but we certainly didn’t play our best baseball, and hopefully moving forward that won’t ever happen again. It can’t or your season’s gonna be over.”
“It was just the same thing as throughout the season,” junior pitcher Alex Faedo added. “Close games, you know, we had to find ways to win and at the end of the year it always comes down to one or two runs, close games, you’re gonna face good pitching. That’s just the kind of team we are. We’re just finding ways to win and we just showed it again last weekend.”
As for Wake Forest, a 42-18 record with a 19-11 conference record earned a third-place finish in the ACC. The Deacons won one game in the ACC Tournament with a 5-4 victory over Georgia Tech before suffering a 5-2 elimination loss to Miami.
Wake Forest made an easier path for itself by opening with an 11-3 win over UMBC in the Winston Salem Regional, then defeating West Virginia 4-3 and 12-8 to advance.
History:
The Gators and Demon Deacons have met just eight times before, with Florida holding 6-2 record in those games and a 6-1 advantage at home. The teams split just two previous NCAA Tournament matchups, with Florida taking the most recent of those in a 1998 Gainesville Regional win.
In the most recent meeting, Wake Forest took down then-No.1 Florida 4-0 in Gainesville in 2006.
Florida is historically the much more experienced team in the post-season, with 32 NCAA Tournament appearances compared to Wake Forest’s 14. The last time, and only other time, the Deacons advanced to Super Regionals was in 1999, while the Gators have advanced to this point each of the last three seasons, with nine overall.
On the mound:
Probable pitching matchups:
Saturday- RHP Alex Faedo (7-2, 2.70 ERA) vs. RHP Parker Dunshee (9-1, 4.14 ERA)
Sunday- RHP Brady Singer (7-5, 3.48 ERA) vs. RHP Connor Johnstone (8-0, 3.36 ERA)
Monday- RHP Jackson Kowar (12-0, 3.72 ERA) vs. RHP Donnie Sellers (3-5, 4.81 ERA)
The Super Regional format plays right into Florida’s hands from a pitching standpoint as the Gators can stick to their strengths between the starters and standout closer Michael Byrne, without having to dig quite so deep into the bullpen. That’s when things can start to get hairy, especially against stronger offensive teams like Wake Forest.
Faedo wants to put that plan into action with a good start on Saturday, so more options out of the bullpen will be ready to go behind Singer and Kowar.
“Pitching deeper into games, I think,” Faedo said was his biggest improvement from last season to now. “Just trying to hand the ball off to Byrne. I’m just trying to go out there and just have me and Byrne pitch that game and try to save the bullpen for the rest of the week.”
Faedo and Byrne combined for the Gators’ top performances on the mound in Regionals. Faedo took on the challenge of starting against a strong USF lineup that scored 15 runs on Florida’s pitchers just a few weeks earlier. He had 10 strikeouts to just two walks and gave up four hits and one run in seven innings before handing the game over to Byrne.
“He just always seems to rise to the occasion,” O’Sullivan said on Faedo. “And last time out was the best he’s pitched all year long, in my opinion.”
Byrne, who holds the Florida single season saves record with 16 so far this season along with the team’s best ERA at 1.55, appeared in all three of Florida’s wins last weekend. The Gators rode him to the end and he never showed a sign of fatigue, pitching 10 innings on the weekend without allowing a single run. He struck out 13 batters and gave up just six hits.
His most impressive, and most important, performance came in his five-shutout innings to close out the marathon game against USF and send the Gators to the regional final. Byrne made even more history, becoming the first Florida player to earn two saves in a single NCAA Tournament series.
“Michael throws strikes and he’s a good athlete and he just gave us the best chance to win at the end of the ball game,” said O’Sullivan. “He’s got three pitches … there’s something he does that hitters just don’t pick up. Between our starters and he, he’s probably been our MVP.”
After throwing a total of 138 pitches in three appearances over the weekend, Byrne has been ordered not to pick up a ball this entire week. He is sure to be rested and ready to go when his name is called against Wake Forest.
In the box:
This is where the Deacons find their bread and butter. Wake Forest is among the nation’s leaders in several offensive categories. Most notably, leading the country with 100 home runs this season, as the only team to hit triple digit bombs since the BBCOR era began in 2011.
Five players have double-digit home runs on the year. Gavin Sheets (20), Johnny Aiello (18) and Stuart Fairchild (17) are all in the top 30 nationally.
It is taken into consideration that the Deacons’ home ballpark is much more hitter friendly than McKethan Stadium, but to give some perspective, the Gators have hit just 47 homers this year.
Wake Forest not only hits for power, but for average as well. Six of its nine starters hit .322 or above and just one hits below .250, giving the Deacons a .311 team batting average for the year. Fairchild (.359) and Jake Mueller (.358) lead the way as the top average hitters.
The Gators, on the other hand, continue to struggle to find a true offensive identity. This team has proven its offensive ability in spurts throughout the year, but consistency is the missing piece.
Florida bats .264 as a team overall, but has just a .228 average so far in the NCAA Tournament. Only two Florida players, Nelson Maldonado (.320) and Ryan Larson (.318), are hitting above .300 this season.
Larson, a major contributor in Florida’s lineup and arguably the most consistent player this season, has been out since taking a pitch to the head against Mississippi State in the second game of the SEC Tournament. The Gators missed his bat in Regionals, but they won’t have to miss it in Supers, as O’Sullivan confirmed on Thursday that he will be back in center field this weekend.
“It almost seems like when things start going wrong, if Larson’s in the lineup, he’s always there to pick us up and stuff,” said junior shortstop Dalton Guthrie. “Not having him this weekend, you were kind of waiting for someone to pick you up and he wasn’t there. He’s definitely a huge part of our lineup and our success this year and if we get him back this weekend that’ll be a big boost for us.”
Looking Ahead:
This weekend will be an epic battle of strengths, and whichever team commands its strengths the best will be headed to Omaha. If Florida’s pitching staff can keep the games close, it will be in a good positon as a very experienced team in tight games this season. The Gators will have to hope great pitching prevails over great hitting this weekend in order to make a third consecutive trip to the College World Series.
“They can hit, but we can pitch, so we’ll see,” O’Sullivan said. “It’ll be a classic matchup. It’ll be very interesting, very interesting.”