In few a few days the Florida Gators will go for their third SEC win and their third straight (24th out of the past 25) win over the Vanderbilt Commodores.
But, like the last two years, it won’t be easy.
After being the whipping post of the SEC East for so long, the Commodores under first James Franklin and now Derek Mason, have proven to be more formidable, especially against the Florida Gators.
Over the past two seasons under Jim McElwain, the Gators have eked out 9-7 and 13-6 wins. In what is the lowest combined two game offensive point total for the Gators against the Commodores since 1960/1961, Florida is still seeking answers.
Is it personnel? Maybe.
Is it scheme? Perhaps.
Is it the dreaded 12:00 PM/11:00 AM kick-off time? Potentially.
The 13 points the Gators scored last season were their second fewest points on the season, and about 10 points lower than their season average, and two years ago, the Gators 9 points were their third fewest points on the season, about 14 points lower than their season average.
In the last two games against the ‘Dores, the Gators have rushed for less than 100 yards each game (93 and 92), while allowing 289 yards (144, 145) on the ground, including allowing running back Ralph Webb to average 5.36 and 4.85 yards per carry each game, amongst his highest totals each season.
Florida struggled to reign in Webb last season because their defensive failed to get into the backfield or tackle at the line of scrimmage. Vanderbilt was able to limit Florida to only three tackles for loss, well below their nearly six tackles for loss per game, while allowing Ralph Webb to run for 2+ yards on 19 of his 24 (16 runs for 3+ yards) runs in the game, again amongst his highest percentages on the season.
Vanderbilt has, and continues to develop, a solid offensive line group that has given Florida troubles. They returned 39 starts from the past two seasons and 54 total games worth of experience that will give the Gators defensive line all they can continue to handle.
If Florida wants to win on Saturday, they will need to increase their presence in the backfield and at the line of scrimmage mainly in stopping Ralph Webb, who is primed for a breakout game this season.
And while Vanderbilt has struggled to pass against Florida previously, junior quarterback Kyle Shurmur is having a good season in passing efficiency and yards per pass completion and forces Florida to be more prepared for the pass than the past two seasons.
But Florida hasn’t just struggled against Ralph Webb, they have struggled more, moving their own football.
Derek Mason’s defense has limited Florida to 4.3 yards per play and 3.75 yards per play over the previous two games, and this year is causing even more havoc. They are ranked 27th in the country in percentage of plays that result in a sack, tackle for loss, or turnover and is 1st in the country in yards per pass attempt and 5th in the country in pass attempt per completion – two areas for Florida had a strategic advantage the previous two seasons. Derek Mason’s defense forces teams to be strategic, adapt, and overcome – something that offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier and the Florida Gators have struggled to do over the past two and a half seasons.
Mason runs a two-gap system, which ask defense ends to wait and react to the play, while sitting linebackers slightly deeper to protect edges against edge runs (which means those really dumb pitches to the short side of the field that Nussmeier runs will again not work). Mason’s defense requires teams to be creative in their playcalling – which is the perfect sentence in a nutshell to why Florida has struggled with Vanderbilt.