PD’s Preview: The South Carolina Game

Next Up: The Old Ball Coach. Never a dull moment, this is likely the pivotal game for the future of the football program, and certainly for the coaching staff. This game is not the last opportunity this year to put an exclamation point on the turnaround witnessed the last two weeks, and losing this game will not destroy the New Hope (as Yoda said, “No, there is another”). However, this is the last best chance to take the next step. And the matchup is full of intrigue.

Everyone keeps saying that South Carolina is going to score a fair-to-large number of points against Florida…and maybe they will. They’ve scored a lot of points all year. But they have faced only mild defensive resistance. The best defense they have faced thus far is Georgia, ranking #23 in the county in total defense. They also faced East Carolina (#24) and Missouri (#26), the latter against which they only scored 20 points. The SEC West split is where the Gamecocks’ offense got off so easy this year compared to Florida. Whereas the Gators had to face Alabama’s #4-ranked defense and LSU’s #13-ranked defense, Carolina had the benefit of facing Auburn’s #58 unit and Texas A&M’s defense which ranks #91 in the land. Excluding the patsy Furman, SC’s opponents have an average total defense ranking of #51 in the country. By contrast, excluding the patsy Eastern Michigan, Florida’s defensive foes have an average ranking of #36. Florida – ranked #18 in the nation – will be by far the best defense they will face all year.

Looking just at the Florida defense, the Gators have taken quite a bite out of their opponents’ offensive mojo this year. Over the entire season the UF defense has held opponents to nearly 80 points below their combined season averages, excluding the games against the Gators. So they have on average held offenses to 10 points below their season average. And they have been improving of late. Currently they have held 5-straight opponents below their scoring average, by an average of 14 points below their usual output. Among those five consecutive offenses faced, they have held four of them to 50% of their season output or less. Specifically, they held Vandy to 50% of their normal scoring total, Missouri to 52% (those 28 points on returns were not against the UF defense), Georgia to 57% and Tennessee to 68% below their average.

Now let’s play with some contingencies.

Given South Carolina has averaged 30 points against defenses ranked in the mid-twenties nationally, if you assume Florida will hold them to 50% of their scoring average, that would be 15 points. If you subtract the average real points Florida has held their last five opponents below their season average (minus-14 points), that would be 16 points. Using these assumptions, the magic number for the Florida offense in this game may very well be 17 points. This is in the ball park from another perspective as well: over the Gators’ last five games, the defense has surrendered an average of 16 points per game. Looking at it from another direction, Carolina’s low-water scoring mark was 20 points at home against Missouri, a defense ranked 44% lower in the national rankings than Florida. If we assume that on the road against a higher ranked defense 20 points would be the expected threshold, then the magic number for the Florida offense would be 21. If Gator special teams pitch in a return, then we are back below 16 again, at 14 points.

But all of that really gives way to the more important issues: matchups and momentum. By momentum I don’t mean just the intangible element but the way both teams are playing right now. Florida is on the biggest 2-game roll they have seen in two years; South Carolina is in a season-long  swoon, carries a 2-game losing streak as part of a 4-for-5 losing skid, during which they have surrendered over 40 points to all their last four opponents not named Furman. On the season, they have also given up an average of 40 points a game against SEC opponents. Even in their three early wins, they gave up 23, 34 and 35 points, after surrendering 52 to open the season. Their defense is bad.

Looking at the general matchups, Carolina’s passing defense gives up 237 yards per game, while Florida’s surrenders 217 through the air each week. And remember that average is skewed by the 450 yards they allowed to Alabama a full eight weeks ago, and the 370 surrendered to Kentucky in triple overtime the week before. In the last five games, the Gators are only giving up an average of 175 yards through the air. Still, both passing games should find some success Saturday. It is the turf war where the Gators look to find the decisive advantage in this game. Florida is only giving up 116 yards per game on the ground this year. Only Alabama is more stingy in the SEC against the run. Carolina meanwhile is giving up almost as many running yards as passing yards: 223 per game. That’s good enough for 112^th in the nation. Florida ranks almost 100 spots higher, coming in at #14.

We all know that South Carolina, which throws for nearly 300 yards per game, will likely make some noise through the air, especially in the middle of the field attacking Florida’s safeties and linebackers. Florida will try to mitigate their advantage there with the pass rush that has been ramping up fiercely the last few weeks. Carolina has surrendered 18 sacks, 57^th in the nation – not good, but not bad considering how often they throw the ball – and Florida has tallied 20 sacks in fewer games. But Florida has accounted for 70% of their sacks in the last five games. They only notched one sack against Missouri, but they only threw the ball 18 times. The Gators got six sacks against Tennessee, four sacks against LSU, three against Georgia and while they did not register a sack against Vanderbilt, they were credited with three official hurries and about a dozen more hits on the quarterback that even though the official scorer did not recognize as hurries, any court in the land would have convicted the Gators for harassment.

But whether through coverage or pressure, the Gator defense has been able to put a significant clamp on opposing quarterbacks since the horrific display in Tuscaloosa. The safeties have been playing better the last few weeks. They are singled out and attacked by the quarterbacks, but that is partially due to the fact that Florida has probably the best young cover tandem among all cornerbacks in the nation. Opposing offenses are not going to target Vernon Hargreaves III and Jalen Tabor very often. And regardless of what position in the secondary is singled out, the Gators have acquitted themselves quite well. The two Vanderbilt quarterbacks registered quarterback ratings (QBRs) of just 37.2 and 11.6 Saturday night. Florida held the previous four opposing quarterbacks to 47.7, 14.7, 49.3 and 16.3. Compare that to the game Treon Harris had against the Commodores of 83.3. Even Driskel had a 39.8 rating against Vandy, and he didn’t even have a completion. But to put those numbers in better perspective, only LSU’s Anthony Jennings matched his season average QBR against the Gators. Vandy’s quarterbacks were held to 59% and 27% of their season average, the Dawgs’ Hutson Mason was held to 61% of his average, Missouri’s Mat Mauk to 34% of his average and Justin Worley to just 28% of his. South Carolina’s Dylan Thompson has a QBR this year of 76.7. Want to take bets on whether he will hit that average against the Gators?

Turnovers, or rather lack thereof, have played a big part in Florida’s 2-game win streak. The Gators have only turned the ball over once in the last two weeks and are plus-4 in turnover ratio. South Carolina meanwhile comes into the game with a 4-game SEC losing streak, over which time they have given away the rock eight times, and are minus-3 in turnover margin.

Although the Gamecocks did not surrender a turnover last week against Tennessee, they gave up 21 points in the fourth quarter, which is another bad trend for Spurrier’s crew. The week before Auburn scored the decisive touchdown in the fourth quarter, Kentucky found the end zone three times in the last stanza and Missouri hit pay dirt twice. Over the four game SEC losing streak, the ‘Cocks have been outscored after the third quarter by a total of 66-28. By contrast, even though the Gators have had both of their last two games totally sewn up before the fourth quarter began, and played a lot of backups and prevent defense, they still outscored both foes to the total of 31-16, which extrapolates to a 4-game total of 62-32 – very close to the mirror opposite of Carolina’s fourth quarter balance.

Of course the key to all of these trends being significant is that the trends must continue. This is unfortunately never assured. The Florida-Georgia game certainly demonstrated this. On the macro level, however it is difficult to deny that these two teams are speeding in opposite directions. While the Gators have rediscovered their belief, the Gamecocks appear to have lost theirs. Will Muschamp has been nearly giddy to the press after the last two games while Steve Spurrier stopped just short of shouting at the media to get off of his lawn. I don’t think it will be an easy game by any stretch, and I think South Carolina will bring all they have, which will make it a competitive game for the first quarter or two. But I think the energy of the Swamp (and the players’ passion to atone for the team’s last performance there) will create an impossible atmosphere for Carolina to overcome. The noise and electricity will give the Gator defense an extra boost in particular and squeeze the Gamecocks offense into a few early turnovers or short, empty possessions. The Carolina passing game will have its opportunities but it will also give the Gators a lot of opportunities to nab a few interceptions. On the offensive side for the Gators, it will be Treon’s first home start after two very impressive ramp-up starts and I expect him to have a very solid and productive day. Matt Jones, Kelvin Taylor and Brandon Powell should be able to continue to do damage on the ground, as South Carolina’s run defense is even worse than Vanderbilt’s (much worse, in fact, with Vandy ranked 82 and Carolina ranked 112). Florida should be able to find success in the red zone, coming in as the third-most effective red zone team in the land, while Carolina’s red zone defense ranked 102^nd in the nation. Look for Andre Debose to have a big day if they kick to him. SC stands 94^th in punt return defense and 121^st – yes 121^st – in kickoff return defense.

As vulnerable as Carolina appears, you can never rule out the Old ball Coach. Florida will have to start the game fast, stay focused, maintain ball security and avoid big mistakes in pass defense. Do those things and the rest will take care of itself.