PD’s Postulations: Thoughts on the Florida Gators/Vandy

Well that was a lot better, wasn’t it? Or maybe it just felt better to go through an entire fourth quarter without having to break out the Pepto. To not have to sweat out the final drive right down to the very last play. To see the Gators respond to a push by the opponent with a put-it-away touchdown drive rather than let them linger on and hang around to take one final shot at the very end to beat us.

Was it a closer game than we would have liked? Aren’t they all? Fact of the matter is, though, we just survived two-straight high-effort, emotionally exhausting games against previously undefeated East rivals, and the team’s first road trip into hostile enemy territory. They were already setting their sights in the grudge match against LSU the following week, the away game in the Swamp as payback for all the indignity and classless hassle from Red Stick last year. Vanderbilt had just got waxed by Alabama in epic, record-setting proportions. This was a case study in the concept of the Trap Game. Especially since, historically, Vandy is always up sky-high to play us every year, and we are never up for them at all. And yet, after having a tight first half, the Gators mostly had their way in the second half on both sides of the ball (save for one late 4^th quarter touchdown drive that was at that point simply cosmetic, because of the way the team responded.

But behind the elation of another SEC win, the next-best feeling of joy (or was it just relief?) was that we saw the team and program taking more and more steps in the right direction.

Progress

Noun: prog·ress \ ˈprä-grəs , -ˌgres

1. A forward or onward movement (as to an objective or to a goal); advance.
2. A gradual betterment.

Verb: pro·gress \ prə-ˈgres \

1. To move forward; proceed.
2. To develop to a higher, better, or more advanced stage.

Whether a verb or a noun, it’s the thing you want for your football team every week: progress. Or, progress. Whether you’re the best team in the land, the worst team in the land, or the 20^th-ranked team in the most recent poll, you want it. As David Lee Roth sang, everybody wants some; I want some too! And to this point in the season, it’s clear that the Gator football team aims to please.

As I did last week, checking in on this progress on offense, in Game 1, the Gators totaled 192 total yards, 9 first downs, and 3 offensive points. In Game 2, those numbers all increased to 380 yards, 14 first downs, and 19 offensive points. A game later, they bumped up once again to 395 yards, 20 first downs, and 28 offensive points. Then the next week, one more time all the way around: 467 yards, 23 first downs, and 38 offensive points. And it might in fact be that the competition has increased in each of the last three games (with the opener against Michigan obviously being the toughest opponent). And when is the last time Florida was 5-for-5 in the red zone (all 5 touchdowns)? Shoot, when’s the last time Florida even got into the red zone 5 times?

That’s progress. That’s what we want. Of particular note for an offense that has taken more heat than a dragon’s dental hygienist, is the fact that after a 16-point jump in scoring from Game 1 to Game 2, the Gators offense has increased its scoreboard output by an average of 10 points a game in two-straight weeks. If we follow that trend Saturday against LSU, the team will be sounding the Gator victory bell again. Going a little deeper, the Gator offense started the season scoring in just 3 of the first 7 quarters, and all field goals – only 9 points total. But they have scored on offense in 7 of the last 9 quarters, denting the scoreboard 11 times. Of those 11 scores, 10 of them were touchdowns. After not scoring a touchdown in their first 7 quarters, the Gators have put it in the end zone in 5-straight quarters.

And they have been big finishers over that span, scoring two offensive touchdowns in each of the last 3 games. On offense alone, the Gators are averaging 35 points a game in SEC play over the last 9 quarters. And next up is LSU, which just gave up 24 points in losing to a neighborhood kid named Troy, which is the best defensive effort in the last three outings, surrendering 26 to an awful Syracuse team and 37 in the process of losing to a Mississippi State team that has lost its other 2 SEC games this year by a combined score of 80-13. I have predicted that the Gators would improve on all three offensive benchmarks in each of the last two games…dare I predict they do it again this Saturday.

Dare, dare!

Win or lose, the next opponent is Texas A&M, which has surrendered an average of 28 points a game this year, which includes contests against the likes of South Carolina, Louisiana and Nicholls. Whether the offense will continue to statistically progress in every category in each of the next two weeks is unknown. What IS known is that they will have very fertile ground on which to try.

Regress

Noun: re·gress \ ˈrē-ˌgres \

1. Movement backward to a previous and especially worse or more primitive state or condition.
2. A gradual betterment.

Verb: re·gress \ ri-ˈgres \

1. To trend or shift toward a lower, less severe or less perfect state.
2. Progressive decline.

Unfortunately, this is how most would describe the Gator defense after the Vanderbilt game. I certainly came away with a feeling of regression. All those 3^rd down conversions, the seemingly effortless way they marched down the field on their 3 touchdown drives and lone field goal drive that was dangerously close to the end zone at one point. The way they kept completing those downfield passes with ease.

But upon further review, upon re-watching the game without the angst and emotion of an unknown outcome, it would appear that my feelings did not quite match reality.

Turns out, the Commodores were not that great on 3^rd down, in fact not good at all. They were a mere 3-for-13 (23%), while Florida was over 50% (7-for-16). In fact, Florida forced four 3-and-outs on the day, the most for UF all year. And despite their “timely hitting” to borrow a baseball term, they only amassed 310 yards total offense on the day. Far below the yards Florida gained in each of its SEC games this year, for which their own fans have been extremely critical. They only got into the red zone 3 times (compared to Florida’s 5).

Turns out their efficiency in desperation that had an impact on my recall of the game balance. True they were only in the red zone 3 times, but they scored a touchdown all 3 times. And while only 3-for-13, the ‘Dores were 2-for-3 on 4^th down, two of them very critical in leading to their final touchdown that very briefly closed the game to a 7-point contest late in the 4^th quarter.

And in re-watching the game, I was reminded that almost all their downfield passes against cornerbacks were extremely well covered, and of the few that were completed, a few were nearly miraculous, requiring perfect pinpoint precision by the quarterback and perfect focus by the receiver. The rest of their success in the passing game came on screen passes and downfield passes against linebackers and/or safeties (one in particular). These are two points that absolutely have to be remedied quickly if the Gators want a good chance of beating Georgia or keeping Texas A&M from turning the game into a shootout.

Back To The Future

As one who said all summer that I thought Luke Del Rio would make an SEC East champion and SEC title contender out of this team if he were called on to be the starter, I am deeply saddened that he has lost yet another year of his career – perhaps his last one – to senseless injury. But in the long run, it may have saved the team an uncomfortable transition back to Feleipe Franks. Because the youngster was going to be the best quarterback option as soon as he was able to come close enough to Luke’s abilities to own the huddle and execute the metal part of the job (make the line adjustments, play adjustments, read the defense etc.). And one would certainly hope that was going to happen in the next few weeks, since Mac saw enough gap closure to make him the starting quarterback to begin the season.

While we may suffer in terms of points and yards in the short term, over the whole 2017 season, getting Feleipe back in there this quickly may be the more optimal road for the team. And if the short term setback is only marginal – and doesn’t cost us a game – then at least there is a silver lining to this. One of the many things that can be said about both Feleipe Franks and incoming stud signal caller Matt Corral: they are strong and durable. In 2018, Florida may actually have its first full season without losing the starting quarterback to injury.

Optics

Everything looked and felt a lot different outside of the lines Saturday, as well, didn’t it? For the first time all year, Jim McElwain appeared to be more at ease and less stressed. He looked like a coach who had just gone 3-0 to start the SEC season. After the Kentucky win, he looked like he had just watched a very special episode of “Little House,” on the verge of weeping. It would certainly seem to give the impression that the atmosphere around the program had lightened up a bit in the last week. Perhaps the news of the charges coming against the 9 suspended Gators finally let them catch their breath and focus more on the tasks at hand. The waiting, as Tom Petty would tell us, is the hardest part. Perhaps some of the coaching unrest had been addressed. Maybe he just felt better for the same reason we all did: because he didn’t have to sweat the game out to the last play again. Maybe losing Luke Del Rio boosted him to that level of recognizing the absurdity of bad breaks the program has had, and he just had to laugh it off now. Or maybe it was the soothing feeling of seeing young Feleipe Franks responding like he had hope to the benching, coming out with a renewed fire. He had a completely different game face on than is teammates saw in the huddle last week in Lexington. One of confidence and determination. If he was feeling the pressure of the moment or feeling uncertainty in his decision making, he didn’t show it. In the words of Deadpool, he wore his red shirt…or brown pants, either way it worked.

Whatever the reason, I for one took comfort in seeing the same old comfortable Coach Mac we grew accustomed to seeing the last two seasons. That is, as comfortable as he can look, which is somewhere between a first date and a stray dog walking through a Vietnamese kitchen. It at least gives the optics that he has been successfully processing the external aspects of the job – hurricanes, suspensions, injuries to his kids, Belk commercials – and that the internal aspects of improving the team performance and cultural speed bumps.

Statistically Speaking

• If you haven’t already heard, against Vanderbilt Florida extended their current longest streak in the nation, and tied the all-time mark of 365 consecutive game of scoring at least once. They currently share the record with Michigan, and if they score against LSU this week, they will be all alone in the history of NCAA college football.
• I will keep updating this as long as it is true, because it’s just that impressive: McElwain moved to 16-3 in regular season SEC games, tying Steve Spurrier for the best start to a career in school history. Mac is also 13-1 in the Swamp.
• It seems like even longer, but the 5 rushing touchdowns was the first time Florida has turned that trick since doing it against Georgia in 2014.
• With 218 yards on the ground, it’s also the first time since 2014 that the Gators have topped 150 yards rushing in 3-straight SEC games.
• Malik Davis not only is the first true freshman in the SEC this year to score two rushing touchdowns in a game, he’s also the first Gator true freshman to top 100 yards in a game since Jeff Demps in 2008. That was the year of Florida’s last national title.
• For all the angst over the Gator pass defense, they’ve only given up 2 rushing scores this year, good for 3^rd in the nation.

The Play That Fired Sgt Carter

If you watched the rise and fall of the Tennessee Volunteers this year, it is difficult not to wonder if that game-winning final play walkoff touchdown pass from Feleipe Franks to Tyrie Cleveland didn’t end Tennessee’s season, and with it, head coach Butch Jones’s tenure as the top Vol. They have been sleep walking like they could not care less about playing football ever since that pass. This team had been teetering on the brink of being lost the last two years, but those squads always had senior leadership to keep them together and ready to accept their Life Champion trophies with heads held high. This year, though, they’re all fresh out. I don’t see how they can recover from that pass. At least not until every coach and every player in The Swamp that night is out of the program.

The same may be said about Ed Orgeron and LSU. Troy might have done the trick for us, but I think they will still be able to pull it together and get themselves mentally and emotionally up sky high for this week’s game against Florida. Whether that will be enough to win, or even compete, is another story, because Florida is going to be sky-high as well and the most laser-focused it has been all year. If the boys in orange and blue can manage to pull off a big win Saturday – especially in the heart-dagger style to which they’ve become so accustomed – they may just be responsible for getting two SEC head coaches fired. If not now, as soon as either school can afford the buyouts.