PD’s Postulations: Thoughts on Florida Gators/Kentucky

The consensus around Gator Nation the last few weeks has been that the biggest issue with the team this year is poor play calling. I was onboard with that theory as well, and there is no doubt there stands room for improvement in play selection. But what the Kentucky game laid bare was the clear message that the play calling is just part of the bigger issue weighing this team down right now.

What the Gators have first and foremost is a philosophy problem.

Normally, I would say that’s a significant strike against the coaching staff, but it appears it could be created by personnel and not the coaches’ desired direction. I’ll try to peel the layers of that onion down the page.

 

Defense Rests

Never would have thought that in the current era of Gator football, we’d have a difficult game in which the defense was the main problem. And it was apparent very early. Anyone can put together one touchdown drive to start a game against anyone, but it was the second drive that signaled the Gators were in trouble. We knew that our kick and punt coverage teams have always been bad under Greg Nord’s watch, so the big punt return that put them into position for their second touchdown pass was no surprise. But the real precipitating problem there was the defense letting Kentucky drive yet again to the point where they could pin us inside our 1-yard line and then after a stop on downs, hurt us with a good return. And then the UF defense came out and gave it up like they did much of the game. Very atypical of any Gator defense in the last ten years or more.

Our defensive line was nearly dominated in the first three quarters. Our tackles were over-powered and our ends could neither contain nor set the edge consistently. In my entire life, following Gator football since the early ‘80s, I have never seen that happen against Kentucky for more than a quarter. The defensive shortcomings in the first half of the game went beyond Shannon’s disdain for dictating on defense, and what appeared to be our overall lack of preparation for anything that Kentucky was running, despite it being the same stuff they ran in their previous games.

And to be fair, Kentucky was allowed to basically tackle all our defensive linemen on every single play, with almost no flags from the refs (the irony of the holding flag on the final Kentucky drive was fascinating). So being “dominated” was not necessarily a result of physical strength or anything the players were doing wrong. However, coaches must make in-game adjustments not only according to what the opposition is doing, but what the refs are doing. When the zebras are letting them get away with everything – and I mean everything – you have to have recognition and do what is required to overcome the situational disadvantage. If the defensive linemen are getting hugged and mugged every play, you need to send someone through a gap or around the edge who is fast enough to pressure the backfield without the linemen getting their mitts on them. We never did that. We just kept doing the same thing and expected different results.

I don’t want to sell the defense short, however because they came up big in the fourth quarter when they absolutely had to (or else concede an ugly loss). But the defense was the primary reason we were in that position to begin with, so I don’t want to sugar coat that, either.

 

Philosophy 101: Time For Drop/Add

What made this so clear, what really bothered me in this game, and what is symptomatic of everything that is wrong with the Gators’ performances this season, is that Kentucky attacked Florida all night long. Attacked on defense and especially attacked on offense. Florida in stark contrast played passively and often downright scared on both sides of the ball. In addition to being boring and infuriating to fans, and very bad for the ticker, this is a formula that is never going to work in the SEC. Repeat, NEVER going to work. Not long term. Not for more than a game or two. Not if you have this philosophy on both sides of the ball.

The Florida offense has been hamstrung by severe personnel deficiencies the last two years, and have thus played very conservatively by design. But they have turned in two championship seasons while being passive and risk averse on offense because of one thing: the defense was NOT. The Gators’ defensive coordinator for the 2015-2016 seasons, Geoff Collins, did not run the kind of passive and reactive defense that current defensive skipper Randy Shannon is running this year. During Steve Spurrier’s 12-year tenure as the Head Gator, he had some defensive coordinators ran a passive, reactive scheme, and it made a lot of games more stressful for fans than they needed to be, but Spurrier’s offenses were always as aggressive and creative as one could imagine, and always had an attack mentality.

You have to have that on at least one side of the ball in the SEC, or you’re going to lose some games you shouldn’t. Probably many games you shouldn’t.

The Gator defense did not drive Florida to 2-straight SEC East titles by playing a passive, reactive defense that allows any offense to dictate everything from tempo to pass-run options. Kentucky kept getting pressure by sending a linebacker on a blitz. We kept getting NO pressure by letting our over-matched front four try to create it all by themselves.

How often have you heard the phrase, “Florida’s front four was overmatched by Kentucky”…? That wasn’t the case on every down, and as I said before, massive holding had a lot to do with it, but in terms of results throughout the game, it was the triple truth, Ruth.

And I don’t mean to put it all on the defensive line. All three levels of the defense (with some exceptions #Marco) played very poorly through the first three quarters. They played very poorly against Michigan, but that can be explained by first game issues with a very young squad. Although they held up very stoutly against a pretty bad Tennessee offense for three quarters, they were pure Swiss cheese in the fourth quarter against the Vols. But that can be attributed to exterior forces again, because the offense kept them on the field far too long, and they simply were gassed in the fourth quarter. But the Gator defense was completely defenseless fresh out of the locker room, and for three full quarters…against Kentucky.

Kentucky.

Florida has better athletes than Kentucky. We have more of them, too. It happened because the defensive game plan let the Cats do whatever they wanted, and we then would chase after them.

Transitioning to the other side of the ball, Kentucky’s offense was creative, it was daring, it was aggressive. Florida’s offense was a cold fish again. On the last Florida touchdown when Mark Stoops and the Kentucky staff were signaling in a defensive play with a flopping fish arm motion, I thought they were playing charades and pulled the card that read, “Gator offense.” Nibbling at the corners, trying to fudge our way for a yard here and there. When you are Florida and you get out-everythinged by Kentucky, you’ve got a serious problem with your playing philosophy.

On offense, we didn’t attempt a single pass over 5 yards in the first quarter, and there was 6:49 left in the second quarter when Florida called its first pass between the hash marks. Both of those facts were very frustrating on many levels, but it got worse from there. At the 4:05 mark in the first half, still without a single solitary third down conversion, facing third and medium (6 yards to go), at midfield, we handed the ball off…to our slowest running back…on a slow-developing play. It predictably gained 2 yards and was lucky to get that much. The booth was stunned. As were the fans. And probably Walter Camp. Even Kentucky’s players appeared shocked. The looks on the defenders’ faces after that play seemed to hint they were thinking, “They’re not even going to try to convert?” The booth then theorized that the Florida staff had already decided to go for it on fourth down if they didn’t make it. But that could not possibly have been the case, given the fact that the Gator defense had given up a touchdown drive on two of its previous four possessions, and could ill afford to give Kentucky the ball at midfield with 3:24 left in the half. Punting and starting the second half down 7 points and getting the ball first after spending halftime drawing up the perfect drive to kick off the second half was the second-best scenario the Gators could face. But failing on fourth down near midfield, and handing the opposition 100% of the momentum while going into halftime on the road down 21-7 would be an absolutely abysmal proposition. All the great season-igniting momentum from the last-play win against Tennessee would be gone, and the internet itself would be burned to the ground by apoplectic Gator fans.

And then THAT happened. On fourth down, Kentucky astonishingly forgets to cover the entire side of the field where Florida’s most dangerous receiver was lined up. The best-case scenario, with sprinkles. And who’d have thought this was only the first time we’d see this happen?

And let me tell you, that was a real man’s effort on the part of Tyrie Cleveland to plant that stiff-arm, maintain his balance, tip-toe those feet in-bounds and get the football tagged to the pylon before his last step found the chalk. It’s the kind of thing that makes coaches change their philosophy. Hopefully.

 

Tie Up Those Loose Ends!

The ironically-named tight ends wrecked many plays again Saturday night. In almost every play in which they were called on to block, the play failed or nearly failed because they couldn’t or were seemingly uninterested in doing their job. And they set that tone on the opening Florida drive. The second offensive play of the game for UF – a wide receiver screen to Brandon Powell – was blown up because DeAndre Goolsby lollygagged and jogged over to make his block, and the UK cornerback was running full steam (like you’re supposed to do), and beat him to the point by a country mile. On the first play of the second Florida drive, the play was blown up when C’yontai Lewis whiffed on a block as badly as humanly possible and then inexplicably threw a running shoulder-check into Feleipe Franks. Two seconds later, Franks was forced to run the other way because Lewis gave a love tap on the back to yet another defender as he sprinted by, undeterred. The success of the tight ends did not much improve from that point on.

I am not sure what Coach Nord is trying to teach the tight ends, but whatever it is, it’s about as useless as an udder on a bull.

 

Backs to the Future

Some comments on the backs. Both halves and quarters. Let’s start with the halfbacks. It’s been quite a while since we could say that all the Gator running backs had a great game. Malik Davis nearly rushed for 100 yards (95) but actually had the smallest average per carry on the night, though very impressive for 21 carries (4.4 yards). Mark Thompson averaged 4.7 yards on 3 carries, and Lamical Perine took 5 carries an average of 5.4 yards. Thompson pulled off some great blocking assignments on the night, throwing the key block that sprung Kadarius Toney on his oh-so-crucial 36-yard touchdown that opened the scoring for Florida, and he crushed the lead block that made Brandon Powell’s fourth quarter touchdown on the wildcat sweep possible, which started the big comeback. And of course MT grabbed that 10-yard fourth quarter strike across the middle on fourth down, without which the Gators lose the game on the spot.

Davis really showed a lot of power Saturday, something that perhaps surprised a lot of people given his size and his bigger strengths that overshadow his physicality. He’s not just a quick/fast guy with great vision and anticipation who can take it the distance when he gets in the open. He moved the pile some Saturday and is very good wedging in for extra yards in heavy (and “heavy”) traffic between the tackles. And he added a great 11-yard run after catch at a critical point, as well.

The offensive line was very impressive, getting push and opening holes against a Kentucky front that had been very stout against the ground game this year (they ranked first in the SEC and third nationally in rush defense – only 57 yards per game – entering the contest). They got stronger as the game wore on, owning the line of scrimmage and blowing open driving lanes for Malik in the pivotal fourth quarter touchdown drives. Pass protection was their main issue Saturday night, particularly in the middle and on the right side. But that pass protection took it up several notches when the quarterback change was made, which leads me to the next set of backs…

The quarterback change against Kentucky was everything that the quarterback change against Michigan wasn’t. And it makes me wistfully wonder how that opening game in Dallas would have ended if the coaches had gone with Luke Del Rio instead of Malik Zaire in game 1 relief.

Now, some words about the way the offensive line suddenly started performing at a much higher level when Del Rio entered the game – and I mean immediately, on the first play. What LDR brings isn’t what many fans criticize him for. Yes, he doesn’t see the extra defender sometimes and throws interceptions. Yes, he doesn’t have a cannon arm and has little scrambling ability when the pocket breaks down. But what he does pre-snap is what sets him apart from the other quarterbacks we have right now. He reads the pre-snap defense very well and gets the offense into the right line protection and the right play for the defense on the field. He also knows far better what will happen after the snap, so he can anticipate the play much better and react to it faster. While Franks is much better on his feet than LDR, he has to react to the blitz after the snap when he sees it coming through the line. That’s often too late. Luke knows where the blitz is coming from before the snap, so despite his scrambling skills resembling a three-toed sloth wearing scuba fins, he has the benefit of moving to avoid the blitz before it starts. All of this helps him buy more time in the pocket, throw more passes on time than Franks and pick the right receiver more often than Franks does.

Another thing he brings pre-snap is confidence and one of Frank Costanza’s favorites: SERENITY NOW! He brings a confident calm to the huddle, which can’t be undersold. His eyes aren’t wide, and in them his teammates see a confidence and swagger that is missing from the freshman who is still unsure of his decision making. Franks has the confidence of the huddle, but not on this level. Because they know how limited he is.

And we all know he is limited. What we don’t know is if he is limited because he can’t play in the middle of the field, read the defense or use the whole play book, or if he’s limited because the coaches simply don’t trust him to operate in the middle of the field, read the defense or utilize the whole play book. And unless there are some folks out there who see all the practices (there aren’t), then we’ll likely never know which it is. Regardless, if he is limited and the offense’s capabilities are likewise limited, the reason is irrelevant. We have to go with the guy who either can or is allowed to use the whole field and the whole playbook. That’s Luke.

 

Philosophy 102: Exam Week Coming Soon

In the end, the Gator boys really dodged a bullet in Lexington Saturday night. Fan grievances aside, there are a ton of things for the Gators to build on from this game. Far more than we had from the win against Tennessee. The offensive line looked as good as it has in many moons in the run game, and when LDR was in the game, it looked like a completely different unit in pass protection. The coaches stated going into the game that they wanted to own the line of scrimmage on offense and establish the run. They did that strongly with 186 yards and a 5.2 yards per carry average. And the run game dominated the fourth quarter and brought home the win. The offense showed steady improvement for the second consecutive week. In Game 1, Florida only tallied 192 total yards, 9 first downs, and 3 offensive points. In Game 2, Florida racked up 380 yards, 14 first downs, 19 offensive points. Saturday, the Gators amassed 395 yards, 20 first downs, and 28 offensive points. And if Del Rio starts against Vandy, the smart money says the Gators improve all three of those statistics for the third game in a row.

Perhaps most significantly, after Tennessee, a lot of people said we may have found our quarterback. But even the most optimistic among us knew that was probably premature because Franks still has a distance to progress. We saw that Saturday night. After Kentucky, a lot of people should be saying we may have had our quarterback the whole time. Franks might just be the quarterback of the future (at least until MattyIce is on campus and ready to take over), but Del Rio might just be the quarterback of the present once again. As long as we can keep him healthy. Meanwhile, Franks keeps working and developing and will be much more ready the next time he is called on to take the snaps.

But far more than finding our quarterback, and much more importantly, in the second half against Kentucky, we may have found an identity. Maybe it was the presence of Del Rio in the huddle and under center, and perhaps the 13-point deficit and the dwindling fourth quarter clock had something to do with it, but in the final stanza Saturday night, the offense and even the defense got a lot more aggressive. Got a lot more creative. And as a result, got a lot more explosive and a lot more effective. The Gators gained 111 yards in the first quarter, which is no surprise, since the first possession or two are always scripted by Coach Mac, and are usually the most successful of the game. Then Florida only totaled 83 yards in the second quarter (45 of which – over half – was on the single touchdown play where Cleveland was left uncovered), and then a measly 56 yards in the third quarter. With the game on the line, necessity knocked in the fourth quarter, and the Gators responded with 145 yards and 14 game-winning points. Last week with the game on the line, Florida amassed 189 fourth quarter yards, a full 50% of the Gator offense in the game. Whether it was necessity or the quarterback change (one was not made in the Tennessee game, mind you), or a change in the play calling chain of command (we all saw Mac with the head set on and engaged in frenetic communication during the entirety of both of our fourth quarter touchdown drives; make of that what you will), the fourth quarters of the last two games saw a quantum leap in creativity, aggressive play calling, and downfield attack mentality.

And if we continue the season with a quarterback in whom we know the staff trusts to use the whole field and the whole play book, and to whom the offensive line responds so positively, perhaps this attack philosophy will re-enter the world of Florida Gators football.

One can only hope.

 

Play Makers

Gator fans, even the most vocally critical of the coaching staff, have to be happy with the personnel moves this week. The three big stars on offense that have been identified – Tyrie Cleveland, Kadarius Toney and Malik Davis – were all fed Saturday like they were starving. Davis got 22 touches, Cleveland got 6 touches and was targeted 2 more times with passes, and Toney got 7 touches. And the staff was creative in how they fed them. All three of them were involved rushing and receiving, while Cleveland also got a return and Toney threw a pass.

But we also found, or rather rediscovered a fourth play maker: Brandon Powell. One of the most under-used potential stars throughout his career, he really put on a show in Lexington. With 5 touches receiving and running from the Wild-Gator, he made the most of them, scoring a critical touchdown and keeping a scoring drive alive with an amazing juke-fest, turning a terribly conceived unblocked wide receiver screen into a first down, breaking the ankles of two Kentucky defenders along the way.

But I am here to tell you that we have more play makers than these four. But there is a difference that can best be explained in basketball terms. Most good basketball teams have a handful of players who can make all their shots and come up huge in big games IF their team can get them the ball with open looks at the basket. But to be an elite team, you have to have one or more guys who can create their own shots, and don’t need to have open looks schematically produced for them. Cleveland, Davis, Toney and Powell can create their own shots. And as defenses have to scheme to focus on these four stars, those other play makers on the team will start to find more open looks. Guys like Freddie Swain, who was wide open to catch the winning touchdown pass, Mark Thompson who was wide open to catch the crucial fourth down conversion pass, Josh Hammond, Lamical Perine, Dre Massey, Daquon Green if our coaches ever decide to bring him out of witness protection, even our tight ends who are one-tool players and catching the football is that one tool.

 

Looking Ahead and Keeping Perspective

As bad as things looked at times Saturday night, Tennessee and Kentucky were the two opponents we had to find a way to get past in order to get to the part of our season where we can take a breath (Vandy) and set our sights on LSU, who we now know may not be as good as advertized (or even as good as Kentucky), for Homecoming. Then another easier opponent in Texas A&M before the big game, probably for the East marbles, against Georgia.

Say what you will about the teams we’ve played this year, but our opponents have a combined 10-0 record against the field when two losses to Florida are subtracted. And I don’t care what jersey they are wearing: that was one of the better 2017 SEC teams the Gators beat Saturday night, and I think the season will bear that out. In the SEC, every week is a game of survive and advance. We survived. We advanced. We did what we had to do.

If you were told before the season started that Florida would open up its SEC slate with two games that were decided on the final play, and that Florida would win both of them, would you take it? Or would you make it contingent on style points? Would you say, “Heck yes, I’ll take those two thrilling wins!” Or would you say, “Well it depends – how did they look in the first three quarters?”

As football fans, especially in the SEC, you have to be mission critical thinkers. The win is all that matters today. Problems? Solve them next week and the rest of the season. Unnecessarily close games causing untold stress on the system? Consult your local cardiologist on Monday. But on game day? Just win, baby! You have to think like a baseball fan. If you win a baseball game 8-7, after trailing 7-0, by scoring 4 runs in the 8th and 4 runs in the 9th, nobody spends a week complaining about, “Yeah but what about those first 7 innings?! We sucked in those innings, so let’s start firing coaches!” After a number of games, if it keeps happening, the concern about future ramifications is surely legitimate, but as long as you keep winning, it is difficult not to just sit back and enjoy the success. When you are in a rebuilding year – and make no mistake, this is a rebuilding year – you take the wins and smile and focus on the future seasons when the rebuilding process should be complete. And that was always going to be 2018 for this regime. We knew it when Will Muschamp was fired. We have known it all along. By giving us such a great taste of winning games and East titles far ahead of schedule, Jim McElwain no doubt created an artificially high set of expectations for 2017, and that was before nine players, most of which were to be relied upon for significant contributions – some of which were supposed to carry our offense – decided to make themselves ineligible a week before the season started. Add in injuries and the Gators are operating right now with just slightly north of 50 scholarship players. Most of our opponents, in addition to having long-standing coaching staff stability, are working with upwards of 80.

Survive and advance. Survive and advance. Survive and advance. And pretty soon the long term plan will reach fruition.

 

Statistically Speaking

Figures of note Saturday night:

  • Florida’s win streak over Kentucky now stands at 31, is the longest active streak of one team over another in an uninterrupted annual series, and is creeping up on the 3rd-longest all-time. You know, just in case you hadn’t heard. It was kept on the serious down low all week.
  • To add to the Kentucky misery, Florida’s 51 wins against the Cats are the most for UF against any school. We are talking ownership papers here.
  • Despite all the noise in the system criticizing the Head Gator because of the lack of offensive success, Mac just moved to 15-3 in regular season SEC games. That matches the all-time best start to any UF head coaching career, first achieved by one Steve Spurrier. Rarefied air.

One final statistic for the road. I must admit that when the final Florida drive started, while most of Gator Nation was convulsing in stress, angst and deep intestinal pain, an eerie calm came over me. All the dread and concern that had caused me agitation all night simply melted away. I was immediately aware of this change, and I figured it wasn’t a knowledge that we were going to pull it out, because I had no idea. Perhaps it’s because I acknowledged the long game and realized that a loss here was not going to change that steady forward progress. But maybe it’s because of a certain statistic that my brain didn’t know, but my gut surely did:

After the Kentucky win, Jim McElwain is now 9-1 in one-possession games as Gator head coach. The Big Mac simply does NOT lose close games. And I’m lovin’ it! I will try to remember that the next time we are sweating out a close one. And there will be a next time. Probably multiple ones this year.

So just enjoy them. And try not to worry too much. Winning is supposed to be fun. Make it so.

David Parker
One of the original columnists when Gator Country first premiered, David “PD” Parker has been following and writing about the Gators since the eighties. From his years of regular contributions as a member of Gator Country to his weekly columns as a partner of the popular defunct niche website Gator Gurus, PD has become known in Gator Nation for his analysis, insight and humor on all things Gator.

4 COMMENTS

  1. Pat I guess I have been a Gator since the sixties and the current situation reminds me of some ole Gator Refrains. Doug Dickey’s “avoid losing at all cost” and “wait til next year.” I give Mac credit he can really squeak out games against lesser opponents.
    Having said that I still in Mac’s corner but my resolve is starting too flounder.

  2. Hey Parker David –

    Few responses:

    Which is it? UF is deeper than KY……or not?……(given the suspensions) You seem to indicate both.

    Hitting on Randy Shannon pretty hard aren’t ya? I find it hard to argue against RS defensive
    philosophy this year, I believe UF’s strength on D is on the back end. The defensive front is good
    but I am not sold on this being a unit that can dominant a game especially against higher caliber competition. The linebacker corp is not deep and suffering from injuries. Was it a great game on defense ………. no I concede that.

    I have no favorite in the Frank’s – LDR battle, I wish them both success.
    Having said that I enjoyed your comments and agree that the run game took off
    when LDR took over under center.

    Regrettable special teams are not in sync with the great kickers we have……..agree.

    Davis had a BIG TIME game IMO.

    Kinda eerie your comments when it was 27 – 14.
    I have read similar posts from others and will confess
    that far from giving up hope I felt the Gator mojo of the
    game being far from over.

    15-3 and so much hate and negativism toward Mac.
    Sorry I have been an in stadium witness to the other side
    of the coin – see 1980 UGA / UF. Much rather win “Ugly”.
    Today’s fans seem far more interested in whining about any
    and everything, don’t seem to enjoy winning. To each their own.

    Now – Regarding YOU PD, a succinct well written article, no doubt.
    However, as an employee of GC you have become far to pedestrian.
    Give me the fire and fury of the old PD – The PD of what I consider
    the greatest thread of all time – The infamous “ZZ Flop” – now that’s
    the PD we miss.

  3. You may be the best Gator writer ever. Vandy was very embarrassed by the Tide and may try to get some relief against us. Sabin has convinced elite high school football players Bama is the only place for them, and the rest of the SEC suffers as a result. I think Mac is a good guy, and a decent recruiter, but we need a special group, maybe led by one coach or player, to compete with Alabama. We did it with Spurrier and again with Tebow. Will it ever happen again?
    Art Ginsburg
    lifetime Gator fan
    first game 1947