With just one more game left on the schedule, it’s time to start looking at what the Florida Gators can expect in terms of a bowl game.
Currently, the Gators rank No. 11 in the College Football Playoff Top-25. To be clear, the goal of the committee is to get the top four teams right, they’re not overly concerned with the other 21 teams. The Gators still have an opportunity to make it to a New Year’s Six Bowl game but the conference tie ins with the bowl games start to muddy up the waters there.
With all that being said, let’s break down where the Gators could go bowing and who are some potential opponents.
Here is exactly how the SEC breaks down in terms of who is bowling and where they’re going. Currently, the SEC has six teams that are already bowl eligible:
LSU (10-0) | Georgia (9-1)
Alabama (9-1) | Florida (9-2)
Texas A&M (7-3) | Auburn (7-3)
Tennessee, Kentucky, and Missouri are all 5-5. Missouri and Tennessee play each other this weekend so one of them will gain bowl eligibility. Kentucky gets Tennessee Martin this week, but have already played and beat an FCS team this season, so they’ll need to beat Louisville at the end of the season to gain bowl eligibility. In the West, Mississippi State can gain bowl eligibility by winning out but Arkansas and Ole Miss are out.
That leaves us with 10 potential SEC teams that will be bowl eligible.
Here we go.
The winner of the SEC Championship game gets to go to the Sugar Bowl. That is unless the SEC Champion is in the playoff. Right now No. 1 LSU and No. 4 Georgia are both in the playoff but they will play each other in Atlanta for the SEC Championship. LSU will be favored and if they win they’re into the playoff.
The Sugar Bowl is then contractually obligated to take the next highest-ranked, non-playoff SEC team. That means that Georgia or Alabama (assuming Bama beats Auburn in the Iron Bowl) would get the Sugar nod. It would be an interesting wrench to see Georgia beat LSU in the SECCG. I think LSU would remain in the playoff despite being upset and then Georgia and LSU would be playoff-bound, sending Bama to the Sugar and really helping out Florida’s chances at a New Year’s Six Bowl.
In the latest poll, Alabama remained at five, so the Tide could still sneak into the playoff through the backdoor. If that happens just replace Alabama and Georgia in the scenario above.
The next two bowl games that the SEC would be in line for are the Orange Bowl and the Cotton Bowl.
We’ll take a look at the Cotton Bowl first because the ACC has made a complete mess of the Orange Bowl by being one of the worst conferences in America this year. #GOACC
The Cotton Bowl is an access bowl and because of how the playoff rotations work this year they must host the highest-rated Group of Five team and will take the highest-ranked team without a buy-in. Right now Memphis is the highest-ranked G5 team, so they would be slated for the Cotton Bowl. The Tigers play USF this weekend and finish with No. 19 Cincinnati to close out the season. Boise State is another team to watch, as they could play their way into the Cotton Bowl if the AAC cannibalizes itself down the stretch.
The Cotton would then take the next highest-ranked team that isn’t contractually obligated to go to another Bowl. Three are three contract Bowls. The Sugar Bowl will have an SEC team face a Big 12 team no matter what. The Rose Bowl will have the Pac 12 face a Big Ten team no matter what and the Orange Bowl gets an ACC team no matter what. Once you start whittling teams down due to the playoff and contract bowl games, Florida could find itself in the Cotton Bowl. Obviously, as stated above, if the SEC gets two teams into the playoff it greatly improves Florida’s chances.
Now on to the Orange Bowl.
Clemson is the only ACC team ranked in the CFP Poll. That’s right. 13 teams in the conference are unranked. Still, the Orange Bowl is contractually obligated to host a team from the ACC, so, that leaves them in a predicament. They get to choose a team, any bowl-eligible ACC team, to play in the Orange Bowl.
The Orange Bowl contract pits a team from the ACC against either a team from the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame. The Orange Bowl selection committee picks that team after the Sugar and Rose Bowls have filled their slots. The odd stipulation in the contract is that if there is no other ranked ACC team other than a playoff team the Orange Bowl committee just gets to pick any ACC team they want. They also try to avoid rematches, so you’d have to consider that Florida and Miami have already played. Notre Dame already faced Virginia and Virginia Tech.
Florida’s best chances at getting a New Year’s Six Bowl
So, the Gators’ only chance at getting into a NY6 bowl game is through the Cotton Bowl or the Orange Bowl.
Based on the scenarios, that means Florida is rooting for a couple of things to happen.
First, getting two SEC teams into the playoff would almost assuredly make way for Florida to get into the Cotton or Orange Bowl. Florida really needs Ohio State to win out (Penn State and Michigan). Getting Ohio State in the playoff leaves the Rose Bowl open to take another Big Ten team, rather than having Ohio State fill that slot and pushing a Big Ten team ranked higher than Florida into a different NY6 bowl. A Penn State loss to Ohio State could boost the Gators ahead of the Nittany Lions, helping their NY6 case, but despite an upset loss Minnesota remained ahead of Florida. One Big Ten team ranked ahead of Florida, assuming Ohio State is in the playoff is fine because that team would go to the Rose Bowl. Two Big Ten teams ranked ahead of Florida would be bad, because they would get the access bowl big to the Cotton, leaving the Orange Bowl mess we talked about earlier still there.
Baylor and Oklahoma are likely heading towards facing each other in the Big 12 Championship. Baylor finishing the season 12-1 with a win over Oklahoma and a conference championship would also hurt Florida’s NY6 chances because it would likely leave Oklahoma ranked ahead of Florida and another team that would fill a NY6 slow ahead of the Gators.
The rest of the SEC bowl scenarios play out as follows.
After the CFP process (playoff and New Years Six Bowl games) plays out the Citrus Bowl picks from the remaining available SEC teams. Then, in consultation with the SEC office the bowl committees from the Music City Bowl, Outback Bowl, Gator Bowl, Liberty Bowl, and Texas Bowl will pick a team from the SEC. The Birmingham Bowl gets the next pick and if Independence Bowl would pick an SEC team if one is still available.