The Florida Gators are your 2015 SEC East Champions.
Did you expect to read that this season? I am willing to bet just about anyone that more than 99% of you would not have thought that.
The Gators were supposed to be average at best – seven wins, maybe eight. A new system; new players; new coaches; and a tough schedule that would make any team from the ACC faint at first sight.
Now, even after the Gators barely squeaked by with a 9-7 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday, is a time of celebration as your Florida Gators will head to the SEC Championship for the first time since 2009. (Fun fact: the Gators 9-7 win over Vanderbilt was the first time since 1968 that the Gators won a game when only scoring single digits.)
Jim McElwain said it at the beginning of the season and many time since then – the Gators first goal of the season is to make it to Atlanta.
And now on December 5, 2015, exactly one year to the date that he was hired, he will get the opportunity to take his team to Atlanta.
Let’s take a look at the game against Vanderbilt.
Offense/Special Teams
The Gators struggled mightily on Saturday putting points on the board because they kept putting the ball on the ground. We will talk about that a bit more below, but the Gators offense was not quite as bad as it looked on the stat sheet simply because they had three turnovers inside the Vanderbilt 30-yard line, but it wasn’t pretty.
Unfortunately, some bad news first.
- Treon Harris’ interception was the first interception thrown since the Tennessee game – over 120 straight passes in a row were thrown without a thrown interception.
- The Gators 95.62 passer rating was their lowest of the season and the third lowest of Treon Harris’ career.
- Treon Harris has thrown passes in 14 games — in nine of those his completion percentage has been 50% or below.
- The Gators percentage of plays that result in a first down or touchdown is the lowest it has been all season (still much higher than last season).
- The Gators are only averaging 197 yards in the air since Treon Harris took over as starting quarterback – prior to that, the Gators had over 200 yards in five of the first six games.
- The Gators -4 turnover margin was their worst since their atrocious game against Missouri in 2014 (-5).
- The Gators offensive rushing attack was held below three yards per rush for the fourth time this season – that hasn’t happened since 2013.
Not many things, statistically, to talk about so lets focus on a few points.
- I don’t think Demarcus Robinson’s fumble was his fault. He runs with the ball palmed quite often, but the hit on Saturday was just a good hit that would happen against anyone. Don’t think that needs to be attacked. And CeCe Jefferson was down, too. Take those two out and I think Florida scores at least seven more points, possibly more.
- The Gators are considered the third best team in the country in the first quarter with an S&P+ rating of 140.9.
- Austin Hardin hopefully gained the confidence he needed and will be able to provide for the Gators all season. He has had a heck of a season kicking the ball off with a 68.75% touchback percentage, zero out-of-bounds kicks, and only averaging 20.00 yards per kick return, which means most teams taking the ball out of the end-zone are not getting out to the 25-yard line. While he has been a liability during his career in placekicking, his biggest issue has been confidence. The Gators just need better than average kicking – maybe they can get it now.
- Johnny Townsend continues to improve. His fair catch or inside-the-20 ratio is at 61.2% up from 46% earlier in the year and he only has three touchbacks out of 49 punts.
The Gators are still remarkably better on offense, statistically, over last season, they just need more consistency.
Defense
We all know how good the Gators are doing on defense and if wasn’t for a referee getting into the way of Keanu Neal, Ralph Webb would have not likely scampered his way to over 43% of Vanderbilt’s total offense in one play.
- How good is Geoff Collins in making second half adjustments? The Gators are ranked the best third quarter defense in the country and ninth best fourth quarter defense.
- The Gators defensive line ranks sixth in the country in creating havoc – ranking 12th in the country in sacks/game and 20th in the country in tackles for loss/game.
- The Gators defensive backfield ranks 14th in the country in creating havoc and rank 12th in the country in fewest passing yards allowed per game, 11th in lowest QB rating, 11th in yards per attempt, and 20th in overall pass completion percentage. Moreover, according to FootballStudyHall, the Gators only allow team to be successful on 19.9% of passes on what are considered “passing downs”.
- Vanderbilt’s 2.82 yards per play is the lowest allowed by a Gators defense against a Power Five team since FSU only had 1.61 yards per play in 2011.
- The Gators only allowed 30 passing yards – the fewest since that terrible Missouri game in 2014 (20 passing yards).
- The Gators have held four teams in single digits this season — they haven’t done that since 2009.
- Ralph Webb had one run of 74 yards – the other 61 plays Vanderbilt averaged 1.62 yards per play.
Looking Forward to Week Ten
The Gators are looking to go undefeated in the SEC East for the first time since 2009 and will need a win against a hungry South Carolina team fighting to make a bowl game at 3-6.
South Carolina, just like Vanderbilt, has a terrible offense, but unlike Vanderbilt they struggle just as bad on defense. South Carolina ranks in the lower fifth of the country in percentage of plays that result in a turnover, sack, or tackle for loss on defense and allow opponents to score a touchdown or get a first down on greater than 35% of plays. Further, they allow opponents to average 5.24 yards rushing per attempt, so if the Gators plan on having another breakout running game, now would be that time. And finally, South Carolina ranks in the bottom fifth in third down conversion percentage allowed, an area that the Gators need to exploit and get better at.
On offense, South Carolina ranks 100 or worse in 18 of 34 categories including pass efficnecy, passing yards, scoring offense, touchdown-to-interception ration, first downs, and third down conversion percentage. And guess what? These numbers are getting worse since Steve Spurrier’s retirement.
I expect that the Gators have a better game on offense against a weak Gamecocks defense and another shutdown defensive game.
Gators 27 | Gamecocks 9