Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs. Tennessee Volunteers

The Florida Gators escaped another close game with a win against the Kentucky Wildcats that wasn’t quite as close as the score insinuated, but again, just like they did against East Carolina, shot themselves in the foot almost one too many times.

In their 29th straight win over the Wildcats, the Gators did a lot of things very, very well – particularly, along the defensive line and keeping Kentucky away from the end zone – two things that completely disrupted Kentucky’s strong offensive attack.

While the Gators, according to Jim McElwain, played “just OK”, they actually did some very good things that kept a very underrated Kentucky team at bay, but they made some very questionable choices at times and it nearly cost them the game.

The Gators, however, did end the game with a victory, bringing them to 3-0, and if you’re Jim McElwain playing with another coach’s players with the most patchwork offensive line in recent memory, it is really all you can ask for.

 

Offense

When Jim McElwain was hired, I think everyone expected a drastic improvement in offense…immediately. I think we are all seeing with a patchwork offensive line, a freshman quarterback, and a litany of new starters in skill positions that it might take a little longer than some wanted or expected.

And just throwing it out there, I am not sure how the Gators offense is going to fair against more talented defenses, but I imagine not very well in its current state.

The Gators have some pluses and some certain signs of improvement over last season and if they continue to do those things well, they can get through the year and I think that is the most you can ask for right now.

  • Right now, the Gators are getting first downs or touchdowns on 35.82% of their offensive plays. While that stat is inflated a bit because they went for 45.57% against New Mexico State, it is still important because that means the Gators are getting first downs or touchdowns more often on second down than third down. The Gators, while the sample size is small, are averaging better than 7.5% on that statistic over last season, which in my opinion is the most important offensive statistic.
  • Further, the Gators are averaging completions on 69% of passes thrown. Now, while many passes haven’t been too difficult, that is a huge percentage increase over last season on similar type of passes. Last year, the Gators only had a completion percentage of 52% on an average 6.66 yards per pass attempt. This season, the Gators are completing 69% on 8.4 yards per pass attempt.
    • However, there is a tough fact behind those numbers. When you take out the New Mexico State game, the Gators are only completing 59.5% of their passes for 330 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.
  • How does Will Grier’s first 76 plays of 2015 compare to Treon Harris’ first 76 plays of 2014?
    • Will Grier is completing 68.4% of passes for 442 yards with four touchdowns through the air and two interceptions, while rushing for 114 yards on 19 attempts with two touchdowns. He is averaging 7.3 yards per play.
    • Treon Harris completed 50% of his passes for 505 yards (two passes against Eastern Michigan went for 148 yards) with three touchdowns through the air and one interception, while rushing for 131 yards on 31 carries. He averaged 8.3 yards per play.
  • You have to wonder if the Gators have had some stalling on offense because of how long they take per play? The Gators are currently averaging 30:08 seconds per play, which is ranked 122nd in the country. Last season at Colorado State, McElwain’s team was take 25:48 seconds per play, while the Gators were running plays every 25:30 seconds last season. Advanced statistics show that time of possession or time per play as zero correlation to winning or losing; it is obvious that the Gators are struggling to stay in rhythm on offense.
  • The Gators 59 offensive plays against Kentucky are the fewest number of plays the Gators have ran in a game since October 11, 2014 against LSU and their 4.15 yards per play are the fewest they have had since Missouri on October 18, 2014. You have to credit the Kentucky defense as they were disciplined and attacked the Gators were they were weak – the right side of the offensive line.
  • The Gators have to work on their red zone offense. They are only scoring on 76.47% of the time they are in the red zone, which is a major drop-off over their 90.91% last season.
  • As we have talked about statistics aren’t everything. There are a lot of things that can’t simply be put in statistics. It has been good to see the increased use of tight ends in the offense, although I would have liked to see more plays go to Goolsby in light of C’yontai Lewis being injured, as I think he is the one tight end that can stretch the field and normally, his seam routes and wheel routes usually allow man-on-man coverage and he can usually win those battles. Further, I’d like to see more toss plays to the left side of the line, when on the right hash. The Gators were more successful running left than right and need to take advantage of the fact that they are getting more push than the right side, which has been struggling with getting any push, let alone getting to the second level. Finally, I’d like to see the Gators stretch the field a bit more. They have a big improvement on yards per pass attempt, but their 12.1 yards per pass completion is very middle of the road. I’d like to see the ball get to players like Antonio Callaway or Brandon Powell in the flats and allow them to make something happen, because they, unlike Demarcus Robinson, have shown that they can be great north/south runners consistently, while showing the necessary shiftiness.

 

Defense

 There is not much to say about the Gators defense, other than job well done. While I have opined that I am not a huge fan, thus far, of Geoff Collin’s defensive schemes as they have lacked creative blitz packages and overplay the zone, they are doing excellent in almost every facet of the game.

  • In my opinion, the two most important stats on defense are the percentage of opponent plays that result in a turnover, sack, or tackle for loss and percentage of opponent plays that end in a first down or touchdown. The Gators are ranked 8th and 12th respectively in the country in 21.43% and 21.94%. The fact that the Gators are sack, tackling for loss, or causing a turnover on more than 1/5 of their defensive plays, is nearly 5% more than last year (I know, small sample size), and has grown by more than 7% since the first game of the season.
  • Further, let’s give Chris Rumph a round of applause. Replacing Brad Lawing was going to be tough, especially with the loss of Dante Fowler, Jr. but boy, has the defensive line been great. The Gators are averaging 3.67 sacks per game, with 10 of the 11 sacks this season coming from defensive linemen. Moreover, defensive linemen have 64% of the tackles for loss on the season. The Gators 0.1 sacks per opponent pass attempt is ranked 17th in the country. Finally, the Gators are only allowing 55.33 rushing yards per game on 1.95 yards per rush and only 4.3 rushing first downs per game allowed. These are all incredible statistics no matter whom you’ve played.
  • While I have not been a huge fan of Geoff Collins’ zone defense, the results haven’t been too terrible yet. The Gators are averaging only 5.48 yards per pass attempt, but are giving up 10.13 yards per pass completion, which is not too high, but still worrisome as that number has grown over the last three games.

 

Looking Forward to Game Four

The Gators face an even tougher challenge again this weekend with Tennessee. After nearly beating the Gators last season in Knoxville, if not for 10 points by Treon Harris to win 10-9, Tennessee will look to avenge that loss and beat the Gators for the first time since 2004

In order to win again, the Gators are going to need to exploit the Tennessee Volunteers in the following ways.

  • The Gators will need to win the battle of their 69% completion rate versus Tennessee’s 53% completion percentage allowed. Winning this battle is going to have to include deeper passes than the Gators have been throwing as Tennessee has allowed 35 plays go 10+ yards and allow 12.03 yards per completion. Moreover, Tennessee is allowing teams to throw 37.33 times per game and have a 115.3 pass efficiency on defense, so exploiting that will be necessary by Jim McElwain and Will Grier to win the game.
  • Also, the Gators will need to try to get their running game going as Tennessee allows 4.12 yards per rush. The Gators have struggled all season to get the running game going, so a great litmus test on the season’s rushing attack will be against this Tennessee team.
  • On the opposite side of the ball, the Gators will need make sure they stay fresh on defense, as Tennessee averages 80.33 offensive plays per game at only 23:25 seconds per play.
  • Another good battle will be watching Tennessee’s 94.44% red zone offense versus the Gators 71.43% red zone defense.

 

Vegas Line

The super smart folks in Las Vegas have the Gators as 1.5 point favorite with an over/under of 53.5 points, which means they expect a 27.5-26 win by the Florida Gators. Outside of telling you to take the “under”, I don’t know exactly how this game will shape out. I think based on the numbers that Florida will win, but they cannot keep shooting themselves in the foot like they have the last two games. They will have to cut down penalties, by at least half, and rely on an offense that exploits Tennessee’s inability to protect against the long ball and having a rather porous rushing defense, I think the Gators win by 10.

Prediction: Gators 24 | Volunteers 14

Daniel Thompson
Dan Thompson is a 2010 graduate of the University Florida, graduating with a degree in Economics and a degree in Political Science. During this time at UF, Dan worked three years for the Florida Gator Football team as a recruiting ambassador. Dan dealt daily with prospects, NCAA guidelines, and coaching staff. Dan was also involved in Florida Blue Key, Student Government and Greek Life. Currently, Dan oversees the IT consulting practice of a Tampa-based company. Dan enjoys golfing, country music, bourbon, travel, oysters, and a medium-rare steak. Dan can be found on Twitter at @DK_Thompson.

3 COMMENTS

  1. Advising the Gators to look for deeper throws is not a good idea, IMO. Main issue with offense is inability to protect the QB, so there’s not going to be much time for the QB to do that. If we could give Grier/Harris a pocket, they’d find success, even downfield. There’s a lot of youth on the field, and a new offense with new coaches, so things like the time it takes to snap the ball and such will get better with experience. I think we look a ton better on offense already, but it might be a year before we start seeing it have a lot of success.

    • Dead on Colin. We have to establish some success with the pass in order to open the run game, but it will be a challenge to go completely vertical….and I agree about this offense already being better. I’ve seen more imagination in the last 3 games than I’ve seen in 4 years. MAC was dealt a tough hand with OL, but even that is better than what we thought we had 3 months ago..