Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs. North Texas Mean Green

The Florida Gators are 3-0.

I do not care whom they have played or have not played. I do not care how good or bad their opponents have been this season. And I do not care how inflated their statistics may look against those opponents. Why? Because they did exactly what was asked of them – start the season 3-0 with three blowouts.

However, the season changed after Saturday’s game over North Texas. With Luke Del Rio going down with a leg injury, transfer Austin Appleby will take over the helm.

The Gators head out of Gainesville for the first time this season and head to Neyland Stadium to win their sixth straight game in Knoxville and will start a different quarterback than the one that started the season for the third time in four years.

Austin Appleby Thoughts

Twitter and message boards went up in flames last night when Austin Appleby took over. They claimed the season was over and that Florida was “done” – there was no way this guy could lead the Gators to a win over Tennessee. According to the internet, because he made a bad throw on a two-point conversion and he made a few bad decisions in a game he wasn’t expected to play in, all of a sudden Florida’s season was done.

Relax. Please.

First, some people need to stop taking football so seriously. The things people were saying about Appleby are not only uncalled for, they are baseless. No, he is not likely going to win the Heisman trophy, but he is a Florida Gators athlete and he deserves respect because he has done nothing to not have it.

Who cares how Appleby did at Purdue? Purdue was terrible before Appleby and terrible after Appleby. He is not at Purdue anymore — he is a student athlete and a Florida Gators athlete. He transferred to Florida for an opportunity to improve the Florida Gators and you can be damn sure that you would much rather have him trotting out into Neyland than a true freshman.

Let’s stop pretending that Florida has some amazingly complex offense. They have an offense predicated on strong running back play and simple route patterns. If the Gators offensive line plays well, the running backs do as well as they have been doing, and wide receivers can stay open and catch the ball not much changes. Sure, they may not as fluid, but remember, Appleby was taking 50% of the first team snaps until the season started.

Austin Appleby, as I said, may not be a Heisman Trophy candidate, but he deserves the benefit of the doubt certainly before his first snap as a starter. But what’s more, he deserves the support from you because he has the support from his coach and team.

Offense

Obviously, there will be a change in quarterback next week and the opponent should be slightly better than the teams Florida has played already, there are still some noticeable trends starting on offense – some good, some bad. Let’s take a look.

• The Gators 606 yards rushing is the most they have had during the first three games of a season since 2012 when they had 698 yards.
• All four Gator primary running backs are averaging 4.71 yards or more per carry (Scarlett – 5.3; Thompson – 5.19; Perine – 5.5; Cronkrite – 4.71). Last season, only Jordan Scarlett (5.32) averaged more than 4.0 yards per carry.
• The Gators are averaging 4.52 yards rushing on first down and 5.15 yards on second down, which is the most they have averaged on the first two downs rushing since 2009.
• With 792 yards passing through the first three games, the Gators have the most passing yards they have had through three games since 2007.
• The Gators struggled last season in the Red Zone ranking 125^th. This season, they rank 111^th. However, I know three of the trips to the Red Zone this season, including twice on Saturday, would have likely been field goal attempts rather than unsuccessful attempts on fourth down. However, the Gators have to improve in the Red Zone.
• The Gators still rank 100^th in time (seconds) per play. Now, it’s not a problem when the team is winning big, but in crunch time, do the Gators have the ability to hurry-up and be efficient?
• The Gators, so far, are quite efficient on offense in getting first downs or touchdowns, ranking 35^th in the country at 35.97%.
• The Gators offensive line has still only allowed one sack in three games, ranked third in the country for teams that have played three games. Much of that is because of improved offensive line performance, but also due to quick decision making by Del Rio on getting rid of the ball – it will be important for Appleby to follow in his footsteps.
• The offensive line has also only allowed eight tackles for loss this season, the 2.67 per game average ranks 7^th in the nation.
• This is the first time since 2012 that the Gators have scored 24 or more points in the first three games.

Defense

Again, it is easy to criticize the Gators for having such gaudy defensive statistics because of whom they have played. But what’s important is all three of these games have been blowouts (for the most part, at least in the 4^th quarter) and it is tough to replicate every game especially against inferior opponents.

• 53 yards allowed is the fewest allowed by a Florida Gators defense EVER.
• That was the first shutout of Jim McElwain’s career as a head coach and first time Florida has shutout an opponent since 2014.
• This is the first time since 2011 (FSU) that the defense has allowed less than 100 yards.
• The Gators rank first nationally in the following categories:
  • Percentage (29.33%) of opponent plays that result in a turnover, sack, or tackle for loss
  • Fewest percentage (14.67%) of opponent plays that result in a touchdown or first down
  • Lowest completion percentage (34%) allowed
  • Passing completions (6) per game allowed
  • Passing first downs (3) per game allowed
  • Passing touchdowns (0) allowed
  • Sacks (5.33) per game
  • Sacks per opponent pass attempt (30%)
  • Scoring defense (4.67)
  • Total first downs allowed per game (9.67)
  • Total touchdowns per game allowed (0.67)
  • Total yards allowed (129.67)
  • Yards per rush attempt (1.31) allowed
• The Gators rank second nationally in the following categories:
  • Offensive plays allowed (50)
  • Pass efficiency (60.39) defense
  • Passing attempts (17.67) allowed
  • Passing yards (87.33) allowed
  • Rushing yards (42.33) allowed
• The Gators have only allowed 24 plays to go longer than 10 yards, by far the fewest in the country.
• Jabari Zuniga ranks 8^th in the country in sacks and 52^nd in the country in tackles for loss.
• The biggest, and really the only, stain on the Gators defense is that they are giving up three first downs per game on defense by penalty – 117^th in the country.

Miscellaneous

• The Gators need to figure out kick and punt returns as they rank 86^th nationally in both categories. Brandon Powell’s 5 yards per punt return is 8.94 yards lower than the Gators average last season.
• Johnny Townsend ranks fourth in the country with his 50.33 yard per punt average.
• Gators are still on the wrong side of penalties. They rank 114^th in total penalty yards per game (84) and commit a penalty every nine plays (on offense or defense). And opponents are only committing 40 penalty yards per game (116^th nationally).

What Does It Mean?

I was ready to write a long answer here, but to be frank, I don’t know the answer with Austin Appleby now at quarterback. I think the Gators are still the same team, with just a slightly less capable quarterback, but still a fine quarterback. I think the Gators still pound the ball on the ground, I think the offensive line will do just fine against Tennessee. I think the defense carries them to another win this weekend primarily because I don’t think Tennessee is very good. Their strengths are Florida’s strengths and their weaknesses are also Florida’s strengths, and Florida’s weaknesses and Tennessee’s weaknesses, too. Tennessee, in my opinion, isn’t very good. I think Jim McElwain won last year against better teams with Treon Harris at quarterback with a worse team and I think Florida is much more equipped to be successful this year.