Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles

The Florida Gators were who we thought they were. It’s tough to say, but it’s true. They had some good plays last week against LSU, but throughout the season struggled on offense and the defense, who played stout, could only hold back the waters for so long.

For the fifth time in the last six years, the Gators are second fiddle to their rival out west, and the questions that plagued the team for the previous five years, are still prevalent and they all center around offense, play calling, development, and personnel.

The Gators finish their regular season 8-3, but with the Alabama looming and a Bowl Game against a good team, the Gators questions will only intensify over the next few weeks.

Stepping on the Offensive Soap Box

Last week I stood up for Jim McElwain and I still will because while he is an easy target, it’s not his fault. You all can fire him again on the message boards or Twitter, but I think he is still the right coach. Why? Because I don’t see the problems being solely on play calling and I’m certainly not ready to write off a coach with a 5^th year transfer who lost his job at Purdue who was not expected to play this season to determine how good (or bad) a coach is. Look at the full picture, receivers were open and they weren’t being hit. Wide receivers dropped passes and linemen missed blocks, while Scarlett and Cronkrite missed very easy blocks in pass protection – I can’t blame that on Jim McElwain. Call me optimistic or tell me that I have on “Orange and Blue goggles”, but that’s the difference between six offensive points and at least 20, and then that’s a different ball game.

But this is where I gripe and I don’t know whom to point the blame, whether its McElwain, Nussmeier, or the players, so I will simply state it: the offense is stale, has no personality, and is slow. See, when the Gators script their plays (the first 15 or so in a game), they do quite well – they are ranked 45^th in the country in first quarter offensive production, but then when they can’t keep tempo, make poor adjustments, are slow to the line, and late getting calls in from the sideline, they flounder – ranking 106^th (on average) in the second, third, and fourth quarter. This particularly evident in the passing game, where the Gators have a 141.67 QB rating in the 1^st quarter with five touchdowns and two interceptions with 31 first downs, while averaging a 116.21 QB rating and only nine touchdowns to eight interceptions in the second, third, and fourth quarters.

What I see happening is a lack of ability to make the necessary adjustments and when adjustments are made, they don’t flow and the team struggles to handle them. Ergo, the team is slow and/or predictable, which makes it impossible to be consistent and never able to build momentum.

Florida is not, and right now cannot, be an offensive juggernaut, but what they can do is simplify the play calling so plays get in quicker and hurry the tempo of play if only to build momentum because the team looks a helluva lot better when they do.

But when Jim McElwain started at Florida he had six offensive linemen, zero quarterbacks and running backs that still on the roster, and almost zero production out of any wide receivers that are still here, and somehow made it to the SEC Championship both seasons.

There are changes that can be, should be, and will be made, but the fault is far from singular and I’m not ready to fire the head coach. You should want and expect more, but be realistic. Jim McElwain didn’t forget how to coach offense over the last two years, maybe cut him some slack, because the guy before him recruiting all those offensive players certainly never knew how to coach offense.

I will step off now, but I will gladly jump back on and defend McElwain until he is responsible for the quarterback on the field.

Offense

• Florida is currently ranked 114^th in total offense (112^th last season). They haven’t ranked higher than 96^th since 2010.
• Florida’s 3.23 yards per play on Saturday is their lowest offensive output since Missouri in 2013 (2.52).
• In their last two games against FSU, the Gators have averaged 3.28 yards per play with no offensive touchdowns.
• Worst part of the Gators offense? Only averaging 3.82 points per trip inside their opponent’s 40-yard line — 116th in the country.
• Antonio Callaway (603) is 75 yards away from eclipsing his total from last year (678) through four less games. If he can get more than 207 yards over the next two games, he will pass Demarcus Robinson for the highest receiving yards since Riley Cooper in 2009 (961). Antonio Callaway’s 4.3 receptions per game are the most by a Florida Gators receiver since Demarcus Robinson in 2014 with 4.4. Should he eclipse that number and want to chase more recent history, Aaron Hernandez had 4.9 receptions per game in 2009.
• Jordan Scarlett, with 5.05 yards per carry, is still on track to be the first Gators running back since Chris Rainey and Jeff Demps in 2011 to average more than 5.0 yards per carry with over 75 carries on the season.
• Austin Appleby has been sacked 8.2% of the times he has dropped back into a passing play this season (SBNation).
• The offensive line is doing their job on rushing plays ranking 20^th in the country in fewest stuffs at the line of scrimmage (SBNation).
• The Gators rank 108^th in the country in pace of play and it shows. By some quick math, Florida’s offense is about five seconds faster per play (45th in the country in production) than the last three quarters (106th in country).
• The Gators have dropped to 127th in the country in red zone scoring percentage. They were 125^th last season. Over the last two seasons the Gators have only scored a touchdown in the red zone 53% of the time (48 of 89).

Defense

• The Gators defense is tiring in 4th quarter. The defense ranks 6th (1st Q), 7th (2nd Q), and 7th (3rd Q), but 52nd in 4th quarter.
• Gators continue their great pass defense ranking 2^nd in fewest yards allowed, 13^th in yards per attempt, 4^th in touchdown-to-interception ratio, 2^nd in fewest touchdowns allowed, 3^rd in quarterback rating, and 3^rd in fewest yards per game.
• The Gators gave up 200+ rushing yards four times this regular season (Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, FSU) for the first time since 2011.
• This was the Gators first game since Missouri where they didn’t record a sack and only the fourth time in the last two seasons.
• FSU’s 64.71% conversion rate was the highest the Gators have allowed since Michigan last season and only the second time they have allowed a team to convert more than 50% of their third downs under Jim McElwain.
• The Gators held Deondre Francois to his second fewest passing yards of the year and second fewest yards per attempt (Louisville held him to the fewest in both categories).

Miscellaneous

• Johnny Townsend ranks 3^rd in the country in punt yards and 4^th in the country in punt success rate.
• Neat stat: Johnny Townsend has the longest punt average in road games in the country (48.41 yards per punt).
• Eddy Pineiro has now made his last nine field goals and is 18-for-22 on the season. The Gators haven’t had a kicker make 18 field goals in a season since Caleb Sturgis in 2012.