Crunching the Numbers: Florida Gators vs East Carolina

Was the Florida Gators game on Saturday a fluke or a regression to the mean?

After winning their first game in decisive fashion, the Gators struggled on both sides of the ball at times during the game against the Pirates – a game head coach Jim McElwain said the Gators should not have won.

While, I disagree with McElwain’s assessment that the Gators should not have won, because I believe they played better overall than East Carolina did, the Gators did not look as crisp as game one, made silly mistakes, dumb penalties, and were not able to execute like they are expected to against a sub-par opponent.

But were the Gators as bad as Jim McElwain opined? Were the Gators really that far off of a blowout once you take out some penalties and silly mistakes? And what is this Florida Gators football team after two games?

Let’s answer these questions (and more!!!) below.

Offense

The laziest thing that someone could have said after Saturday’s game was, “this offense is no different than Will Muschamp’s offense.”

While, yes, the Gators did commit a stupid amount of penalties (12), something we saw a lot of under Will Muschamp, the Gators offense was still starkly different than what we saw for the last four years.

• To date, the Gators have totaled 200 receiving yards by tight ends, including three touchdowns, which equates to 18.18 yards per catch and a touchdown catch every 3.67 catches. Incredible difference. Compare that to last season, where the Gators only had 237 yards receiving by tight ends on 26 passes (9.11 yards per catch) and a touchdown on every 8.67 catches.
• While the sample size is small, the Gators are gaining a first down or a touchdown on 38.73% of their plays, which is more than 10% more than last season.
• Further, they are averaging 16.5 plays per game go for more than 10 yards, which is five more per game than last season, where they ranked 112^th in the country. Their total offensive explosiveness is ranked 16^th in the country, a 44 rank climb over last season.
• They are averaging 9.35 yards per pass attempt, which is nearly three yards more than last season and have a 179.8 pass efficiency score, which is good for 11^th in the country.
• The biggest differences over Muschamp, as you probably know, are in overall passing, TD:INT ratio, total first downs, yards/pass attempt, and a decreased number of rushing attempts.

However, while there are some major differences, there are still some concerns, although early.

• The Gators rank 112^th in time per play at 29.18 seconds per play, which is 3.5 seconds more than last year. I know that Jim McElwain has never been a fast paced offense type of guy, you want to see your offense moving the ball a lot quicker down the field. In fact, on drives where the Gators scored, they scored on average six seconds per play faster than they did on plays that they did not score. Keeping the ball moving quickly allows the offense to keep the defense from substituting as often and keeps more advantageous personnel off the field.
• The Gators have GOT TO name a starting quarterback and give that quarterback a full game, or at least a full half, to gain momentum. When Gator quarterbacks stayed in the game for at least two series in a row, their completion percentage improves by nearly 30 percentage points and have a 72.2% chance at a scoring opportunity (touchdown, field goal, or missed goal), compared to just 42.8% on their first drive of a series coming off the bench. Whether it is Will Grier or Treon Harris, both are drastically better during consecutive series’ than they are coming in off the bench. They both can make their teammates better (in different ways), they just have to have the chance to do it. Has any one quarterback showed that they are drastically better than the other? No. But do the numbers show the collectively they are better when they given the chance to get into rhythm? Abso-freakin’-lutely.
• And finally, probably the only thing the Gators did well on offense last year was score in the red-zone, where they scored 90.91% of the time. This year, that number is down to 84.62%. Under a Jim McElwain coached offense, that number should never be less than 90%.

Defense

When your best cornerback and best safety are out before the game starts and your best linebacker gets hurt during the game, the Gators could have easily been exposed, and while in some ways they were, they played a decent game overall.

• The Gators, for the second week in a row, showed great run defense and shut down the opposing team. While East Carolina ran for 192 yards in their first game against Towson, they were stuffed for -13 yards rushing against the Gators. I mentioned last week that Chris Hairston could be a problem, they held him to just 15 yards on 17 carries – truly remarkable. The -13 yards rushing against, is the first time since September 17, 2011 (against Tennessee) that the Gators have allowed negative rushing yards against them. Through two games, the Gators have allowed -28 rushing yards in the second half and have only allowed one rushing first down. And for the biggest draw dropping stat, the longest rush the Gators have allowed in the fourth quarter has been one yard.
• Further, on the point of pass defense and pass rush, the Gators are sacking, casing a turnover, or a tackling opponents for a loss on 18.32% of plays, which was a five percent net increase over last week.
• Conversely, the Gators pass defense, that ranked 42^nd in the country last year in yards allowed per game, has dropped drastically. Now part of that is the result of Vernon Hargreaves being out in game two and Keanu Neal being out the first two games, the Gators rank 82^nd in the country in passing yards allowed in the first half and 84^th in the country in the second half, allowing nearly 60% of passes to be completed and allowing opposing quarterbacks to have a 116.88 rating, which is a 5% increase in completion percentage and 9% increase in QB rating over last year. Do I expect these numbers to normalize down? Yes, but right now it is a bit worrisome, considering that Geoff Collins’ Mississippi State team ranked 117^th in the country last season. The Gators have been making some changes at half time, which seem to effect the rush defense, but the Gators seem to struggle with zone and man-to-man defenses and allowing the opposing team to move the chains. The Gators 26 completions allowed and 43.5 passes per game allowed are among the worst in the nation. Something has to tighten up.
• While the Gators have allowed a lot of passing yards, they are only allowing opponents to score a first down or a touchdown on 22.9% of plays, which is down from last year.

Looking Forward to Game Three

The Gators face tougher challenge again this weekend with Kentucky – that is weird to say. After nearly beating the Gators last season in overtime in Gainesville, Kentucky will look to avenge that loss and beat the Gators for the first time since 1986.

In order to win again, the Gators are going to need to exploit the Kentucky Wildcats in the following ways.

• Kentucky has a very exploitable defense. Kentucky has allowed opponents to get a first down or touchdown on nearly 33% of all plays and has allowed a completion percentage of 63%, which bodes well for the Gators who get a first down or touchdown on 38.73% of plays and complete 73% of passes on offense. Florida should be able to throw all over Kentucky.
• But even further, Kentucky has the 111^th ranked rushing defense and is the weakest rushing defense the Gators have played thus far. The Gators have not been as strong rushing this season as some as expected, mostly due to the weak offensive line, but they should have no problem going over 200 yards on the ground.
• Further, the strongest part of Kentucky’s offense has been their 6.02 rush yards per attempt, but I will take the Gators defense that only allows 1.16 yards per rush attempt allowed, over them.

Vegas Line

The super smart folks in Las Vegas have the Gators as 3 point favorite with an over/under of 53.5 points, which means they expect a 28/29-25/26 win by the Florida Gators. But I don’t see it that way. I think Kentucky was able to exploit a weak South Carolina team last week, while almost blowing the game in the fourth quarter. The Gators are able to exploit Kentucky’s weak defense and keep their offense in check, particularly their rushing attack.

Prediction: Gators 31 | Wildcats 13