The Florida Gators are off to one of their most improbable starts in recent memory. Behind a new head coach, a new offensive scheme, nine new position coaches, a makeshift offensive line, and a host of new playmakers on a team that struggled to compete for the better part of two years. Needless to say hopes weren’t high, in fact, many thought that a seven or eight win season would be great progress.
The Gators, one of college football’s biggest surprises, however, aren’t just doing well, they are doing outstandingly. Their 6-1 record has them ranked 11th in the country in the AP Poll and in control of their own destiny to win the SEC East, something they haven’t done since 2009.
For the first time in a long time there is excitement about this Florida Gators football team from the fans, and from the media. And you know what? This team is real. It is not happenstance as to why they are 6-1, they are getting better in all facets of the game, and more importantly, they are improving in confidence, intangibles, and in heart – things you wont see in the stats.
But because we can’t look at confidence, intangibles, and heart in stats, lets take a look at, in my opinion, the 11 most important stats thus far to see how the Gators are doing.
Overall Offense
This first graph is quite simple – it is the top-12 statistics that I think showcase offensive proficiency. The graph shows the Gators ranking based out of 129 Football Bowl Subdivision.
You will notice the Gators rank quite high in fourth down conversion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, fewest interceptions thrown, completion percentage, pass efficiency, and offensive power ranking based on strength of schedule – all ranked better than 40th in the country, which is a huge improvement over last season. They are struggling with third down conversions, red zone offense, total yards, and time (seconds) per play.
The numbers are starting to normalize a bit around an offense that will be ranked around 40-60 based on strength of schedule, which would be at least 20 ranks higher than last season.
Offensive Plays Per Game
The Gators are running quite a balanced offensive game plan, which is much different than last year. Last season, the Gators ran 70.08 plays per game with only 27 pass attempts and 43 rush attempts. This season, they are averaging about two plays less per game at 67.86, but are throwing 31 pass attempts per game and about 37 rushes per game.
Percentage of Plays that Result in a First Down or Touchdown
One area that the Gators do need to see improvement is in their percentage of plays that result in a first down or touchdown. After starting strong, obviously, against New Mexico State, the Gators have regressed quite a bit over the last five games. Their national ranking has dropped about 20 spots in the last five weeks and average a first down or touchdown on about five percent less of plays, which is about three to four plays game.
Yards Per Offensive Play
The Gators, while doing significantly better on offense, are having a shift from last years numbers where they were much better running than they were passing. Last year, Florida averaged 4.36 yards per rush attempt and 12.78 yards per pass completion, which is more than this year, but when you look at yards per pass attempt, they were only a 6.66. The Gators have improved drastically in yards per pass attempt at 7.87 and have a 12.22 yards per pass completion, but their rushing yards per attempt have dropped in each game. A lot of that can be blamed on the offensive line, but the Gators will need to figure out how to gain yards on the ground.
Overall Defense
Many folks thought that with the loss of head coach Will Muschamp and defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin, the Gators would take a big step back, particularly because they lost their best pass rusher in Dante Fowler to the NFL Draft.
While, this graph is still normalizing, in the 12 most important defensive categories, they are ranked in the top-40 in 11 of those and top-30 in six of them.
The Gators still need to improve their red zone defense; there are not many other areas that the Gators need major improvement on.
The most notable statistics I think are – percentage of opponent plays that result in a turnover, sack, or tackle for loss, where they 10th in the country, as well as sacks per opponent pass attempt (1 in 10), and scoring defense. If the Gators can play this well on defense for the rest of the season, the Gators should win many more games.
Percentage of Plays that Result in a Turnover, Sack, or Tackle for Loss
As I have mentioned every week, outside of scoring defense, this is the most important category. The Gators have made a name for themselves and even with a slight dip the last two games, they are still averaging a turnover, sack or tackle for loss in about 20% of plays and the Gators have ranked in the top-10 five weeks in a row. Jon Bullard, Alex McCalister, and Joey Ivie all have more than 3 sacks on the season, and eleven different Gators have recorded a sack. Further, 16 Gators have recorded a tackle for loss and seven different players have recorded a turnover. A true team effort.
Tackles for Loss per Game
As an extension of that last number, the Gators have improved drastically in number of tackles for loss per game, after starting shaky against New Mexico State
Percentage of Opponent Plays for First Down or Touchdown
A true mark of defensive prowess is their ability to limit first downs and touchdowns. The Gators sit in the mid-20s for their national rank and only allow teams to get a first down or touchdown on just over 20% of their plays, which means, most drives should end in a punt. That number is constant, which is great, and even though the Gators struggled against LSU in the first half, they were able to rebound quite nicely.
Defensive Power Ranking Based on Strength of Schedule
Finally, a number that shows the Gators are quite good on defense – they rank eighth in the country in defense based on their strength of schedule and with crunching some numbers, I had a regression line through the rest of the season that would put them about fifth in the country aft her season if they continue as they have been.
Special Teams
There is no mistaking that the Gators are a bit of Jekyl and Hyde on special teams – they struggle in kicking field goals, but are doing great in punting. For the sake of brevity, I wanted to focus on just two areas.
Punting
Johnny Townsend is having of heckuva season punting the football. After a few snafus against Kentucky in the third game of the season, Townsend is averaging about four more yards per punt at just over 44 yards, but more importantly he has a 59% fair-catch or ball being downed inside the 20-yard line, which over the last three weeks is among the highest in the country. Remember, #puntersarepeopletoo.
Kick/Punt Return Yards
An area of frustration on one side is an area of praise on the other. The Gators with Brandon Powell returning kicks are struggling on kick-off returns, where they average only 19 yards per kickoff return, which when considering that most kickoffs are taken from the endzone, is about six yards less than they would be if they downed the football. That number has gone down every single game of the season.
On the other end, Antonio Calloway has consistently averaged about eight yards per punt return, with one touchdown against LSU, that brought that number up to 12.53 yards.
