5 lists of 5: SEC Championship Game edition

Florida Gators vs Alabama Crimson Tide Breakdown
Date: Saturday, December 5, 2015
Time: 4:00 PM
TV: CBS
Last meeting: 2014 Alabama defeated Florida 42-21. Alabama leads the all-time series 24-14. In SEC Championship Game matchups Florida leads 4-3

Last time out:

• Florida loss to Florida State 27-2
• Alabama defeated Auburn 26-13

Meet the Crimson Tide:

• Head Coach: Nick Saban (97-18 in his 9th season at Alabama, 188-60-1 overall in his career)
• Conference: Southeastern Conference Western Division
• 2015 Overall Record: 11-1
• 2015 Conference Record: 7-1
• Rank: #2 in the College Football Playoff Poll

Player(s) to Watch:

• Junior Running Back Derrick Henry. Henry has scored a touchdown in 17 consecutive games. He has 295 carries for 1,797 yards. He is most likely the frontrunner for the Heisman Trophy.
• Senior Linebacker Reggie Ragland. Ragland is the leader of the Bama defense. He has recorded 90 tackles, 2.5 sacks and forced 2 fumbles. His effectiveness goes beyond numbers, he is a true impact player.

5 Things to Know About Alabama

1. Alabama ranks 1st in the nation in rushing defense giving up 78 yards per game.
2. The Crimson Tide have finished the last 5 years 7-1 in conference play and have only lost 8 conference games since 2008.
3. The Alabama defense has been downright dominate. They rank first in the SEC in rushing defense, sacks, pass efficiency defense, total defense and scoring defense.
4. Dating back to the start of the 2008 season, Alabama has won 95 games, the most in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
5. Alabama has three players up for national awards. Derrick Henry for the Maxwell and Doak Walker Awards, Reggie Ragland for the Bednarik Award and A’Shawn Robinson for the Outland Trophy.

5 Things to Pay Attention To

1. Florida Tendencies
Florida offensively breaking tendencies against Alabama might be them coming up with a new offense. McElwain praised the Tide staff for their defensive prowess, but Florida will need to implement some new wrinkles to find ways to move the ball.
2. Is Florida Playing to Win?
It’s one thing to show up to the game, it’s another to do things outside of your character to win the game. That has to be Florida, sitting back the entire game, waiting for Alabama to make a mistake is not the best strategy. Will Florida look to take it to Alabama, and not allow Alabama to set the tone for the game?
3. How Much Steam Does Henry Have.
In 2011 Trent Richardson carried 283 times in 13 games. Henry is already at 295 through 12 games and last week he carried 46 times in beating Auburn. This game may not come down to how much they ride Henry, but when. Expect plenty of Henry in the 4th quarter.
4. Will there be a Smart Effect?
With Kirby Smart taking the Georgia job, will this be any distraction in preparation. Any area that hinders Alabama from being Alabama is a good thing. Smart chose to coach through the bowl games instead of move on to Georgia.
5. Can the Defense Endure a Struggling Offense
Last week against the Florida State, the defense held on strong through 3 quarters and a half and then the wheels fell off. Not because they were tired, but there may have been some slight disappointment and frustration from the defense. This will be something to watch if the offense can’t finish drives or capitalize on defensive stops.

5 Things to Expect

1. Treon Under Fire
Florida has played some pretty good defensive lines this year. Florida had struggled against some less than great lines as well. Now comes the cream of the crop. Alabama brings the most formidable line in the country in quality and in depth. Florida will be challenged to protect Treon. He will need to make throws under pressure for Florida to be effective moving the ball in the air.
2. Big Play Alabama
Alabama has become a big play offense that is finding ways to create chunk plays to score points in every phase of the game. Expect a few chunk plays from the Crimson Tide that could blow the game open if the Gators can’t recover.
3. New Wrinkles from Florida Offense
It would be insane for Florida to come into the game with the same offensive attack and be serious about winning. McElwain and Nussmeier will need to come up with some new ball plays called at the right time to slow the Bama rush and keep Florida and their crowd in the game emotionally
4. Early Jitters
This will be a completely new experience for the Gators. Florida hasn’t been to Atlanta since 2009 and there is nothing that can prepare these players for the atmosphere and the moment. Alabama comes in with the pressure to win and Florida comes in without the championship game experience. It will be interesting to see if there are early mistakes until both teams settle down.
5. The Good and Bad of Treon Harris
Treon has come under a lot of scrutiny lately because of his performance over the last 4 games. He has been mediocre at best in the passing game and his running ability has not been as effective as it could or should be, for various reasons. Treon will give us the good and bad on Saturday, which one of those two are more consistent will determine if Florida has a chance in the 4th quarter or is getting crushed.

5 Keys to Victory

1. Win Turnover Battle by at least +2
Turnovers are the great equalizer in football and Florida will need their fair share to pull off the upset. In Alabama’s only loss they turned it over 5 times and still had an opportunity late to win the game. With the consistency of Florida defense coupled with some turnovers, it will give the Gators a chance at the upset.
2. Endure the Rush
At some point in the game, the Tide will get rolling and Florida will need to endure the rush. Alabama has shown a punch that teams have not had the ability to recover from. If Florida can avoid that run of big plays and/or sustain enough to recover, they will have a shot. Can Florida throw a few haymakers themselves?
3. Capitalize on Mistakes
Florida continues to have struggles finishing drives. The red zone has become a nightmare and the overall margin for error is at a bare minimum. The defense has done a great job week in and week out giving the offense great field position, but that have not made the most of the opportunities. When and if Alabama makes a mistake the Gators have to make them pay.
4. More than a Speed Bump
Derrick Henry is the Incredible Hulk of running backs. Once he get going he is very hard to bring down. If Florida can keep him going east and west rather than north and south they will have a chance to slow him down. Henry is a different type of beast than Fournette and Cook. Slowing him down will be about the defense handling the pounding for four quarters.
5. Find A Way to Get Touchdowns
Florida is not good at field goals, that’s the obvious and they probably wouldn’t have tried to kick them anyway, so with that being said, the Gators have to find a way to get touchdowns. Offensively, defensively and special teams have to find the end zone somehow. It puts a lot of pressure on the defense to be great for 60 minutes when the offense can’t put points on the board,

5 Signs It Was a Good Day

1. Offense is out of Character.
Florida has been searching for something positive offensively. If they somehow can make big plays and get in the end zone the Gators could pull off the biggest upset in SEC Championship game history.
2. Force 3+ Turnovers
If Florida is to pull the shocker I think they will need at least 3 turnovers. If Florida can get Alabama in 3rd and long situations, that will be the best way to force the situation and create some mayhem.
3. Henry is at or Under 120 yards rushing
Florida can win this game without completely shutting Henry down. They can’t win it if he begins to load up on yards and carries. With his production lately if he is under 120, that is a tough defensive performance and
4. Coker is Exposed
In the last six games, Coker has played clean football and not putting his team in bad positions If the Gators can put the heat on Coker and force him to become a factor in the game and not hiding behind Henry and that line they can force the turnovers they need to win.
5. Taylor is Productive in the Run Game
Running the ball Saturday afternoon will be like running into a brick wall. If Taylor is finding space and his yards is above 80 yards that is great for Florida. Any production in the run game is good production.

The Prediction

Florida will play Alabama extremely tough, for three quarters. Much like last week against Florida State, the defense will play well enough to win but the offense will not find any consistency against a very good Tide front seven. Alabama will make some mistakes that keep this game close, but eventually the hammer that Derrick Henry is will wear on the Gators and one late touchdown will put this game away. Florida will play inspired and aggressive, a new wrinkle or two will get Alabama on its heels but they recover behind their front seven and Henry on their way to the College Football Playoff.

Alabama 27 Florida 13