Florida Gators vs. Michigan Wolverines Breakdown
Date: Friday, January 1, 2016
Time: 1:00 PM
TV: ABC
Last meeting: 2008 Michigan defeated Florida 41-35 in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan leads the all-time series 2-0
Last time out:
• Florida lost to Alabama 29-15 in the SEC Championship game
• Michigan lost to Ohio State 42-13
Meet the Wolverines:
• Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (9-3 in his 1st season at Michigan, 67-30 overall in his college career)
• Conference: Big 10 Eastern Division
• 2015 Overall Record: 9-3
• 2015 Conference Record: 6-2
• Rank: #14 in the College Football Playoff Poll
Player(s) to Watch:
• Senior Quarterback Jake Rudock. The former Iowa quarterback has thrown for a career high 2,739 yards and is 1 touchdown shy of tying his career high of 18.
• Senior Linebacker Joe Bolden. Bolden brings experience and leadership to the Wolverines defense. He leads the team with 76 tackles and has recorded 6 tackles for loss.
5 Things to Know About Michigan
1. Michigan ranks 1st nationally in pass efficiency defense and 3rd in passing yards per game.
2. The Michigan defense ranks 4th in the country in total defense and 2nd in the Big Ten.
3. Earlier this season Michigan recorded three consecutive shut outs. The first FBS team to achieve that since 1995 (Kansas State).
4. The Wolverines are 12th in the Big Ten and 103rd in the NCAA in turnover margin.
5. Michigan is 3-1 in the Citrus Bowl and 20-23 overall in bowl games.
5 Things to Pay Attention To
1. Who Is Motivated?
Bowl games are always a crapshoot as to who wants to be there and who is focused. This is a somewhat under the radar game because of the way both teams finished, and most thinking Michigan wins, but expect an inspired effort from both teams.
2. Will Peppers Play?
Early in the week reports were coming out that Peppers might have been limited due to injury. Harbaugh would not comment on his status for the game. Peppers is not just a large part of the Wolverine defense but his versatility on offense and special teams will be missed against the Gators if he can’t go.
3. New Wrinkles for Treon
With nearly a month off to prepare, will there be some new schemes to help Harris on offense. Treon will not become Tom Brady in this game, but look for Florida to come up with some new wrinkles to help Florida balance out the offense throwing the ball.
4. Contrasting Coaches
Jim McElwain and Jim Harbaugh have both done phenomenal jobs this year and both coaches could not be further a part in their approach before the public. It will be interesting to see how these personalities come through during the game.
5. Jake Rudock’s Health
Last time out against the Buckeyes, the Michigan QB was knocked out of the game with a shoulder injury. He was playing very well down the stretch and appears to be healthy. The Gators defense will test him again and if that shoulder does not hold up Michigan could be in trouble offensively.
5 Things to Expect
1. A Productive Game from Kelvin Taylor
In two of their last three games, Michigan has given up over 300 yards rushing. Taylor is not Ezekiel Elliot or Jordan Howard but is good enough to be productive and allow Florida to move the ball. Expect some new wrinkles to get Taylor in space in the running game.
2. Physical Defenses
Both teams will want to control this game defensively. This could easily turn into a low scoring slugfest between the defenses. Florida will look to continue to prove they are amongst the cream of the crop in the nation, while the Wolverines want to prove they are no slouch either.
3. Looser Florida Offense
As the offense continued to struggle the pressure to produce mounted and the offense could not meet that challenge. With the pressure off a bit and some time to recover and scheme up some new wrinkles, expect a looser Florida team on offense.
4. A Big Game Atmosphere
This game sold out very quickly and the crowd should be a good one. Conference pride is on the line and both teams will be looking to recover from rough losses. Motivation should not be a problem and we should expect some trash talk and hard hitting.
5. The Good and Bad of Treon Harris
Treon has come under a lot of scrutiny lately because of his performance over the last 4 games. He has been mediocre at best in the passing game and his running ability has not been as effective as it could or should be, for various reasons. Treon will give us the good and bad on Saturday, which one of those two are more consistent will determine if Florida has a chance in the 4th quarter or is getting crushed.
5 Keys to Victory
1. Win the Big Plays
Florida will probably not be able to approach to move the ball methodically against the Michigan defense. Taylor, Callaway and others will need to create some chunk plays to help this offense move the ball.
2. Defensive Line Domination
Michigan does not present an overwhelming running attack, which has caused Florida troubles in their 3 losses. The Florida d-line will be the key to stopping the running game and getting Michigan in 3rd and long situations.
3. Win the Turnovers
Both offenses will not find much room against either defense. This puts protecting the ball at a premium. Florida has struggled of late in this category but will need to improve for a chance to win this game.
4. Passing Game is Effective
It is rather amazing that the passing attack has digressed so drastically since that night in Baton Rouge. Treon Harris will definitely need to ‘cut is loose’ for the Gators to move the ball in the air. Florida has capable parts to make the passing attack work.
5. Be Confident and Have Fun
Florida is on a two game losing streak that feels like a 4 game losing streak. With some weight off of their shoulders and an opportunity at redemption, they can get back to having fun on the field. Florida is a much, much better team when they are having fun and playing with confidence.
5 Signs It Was a Good Day
1. A Consistent Passing Game Emerges
To say Florida has struggled throwing the ball is an understatement to the understatement. It has not been pretty and if the Gators can get something positive, consistent and turnover free, that will go a long way to getting a victory.
2. Michigan Rushing Yards under 100
Michigan wants to be a power run and balanced team. Their leading rusher has just under 650 yards and has been held under 100 yards multiple times this year. Florida has the ability to shut down the run and make the Wolverines one-dimensional.
3. Callaway is Making Plays
Antonio Callaway has become one of the more explosive players in the SEC and has earned national recognition as well. If he can get free on the Michigan secondary or on special teams it will help create the big plays needed for Florida to get some easy points.
4. The struggling 1/3 of the Kicking Game Contributes
Florida’s kickers have been very good on kickoff’s and have 2nd team Coaches’ all-SEC selection in punter Johnny Townsend. The field goal kicking on the other hand has been abysmal. With the offense struggling, it only makes scoring points harder, especially in the red zone and goal to go situations.
5. Taylor reaches 100 yards.
Kelvin Taylor had zero chance against Alabama but was very productive against a tough Florida State defense. Expect Michigan to load the box to shut down the offense completely. If Taylor is up around 100 yards that will help Florida stay consistent moving the ball as well as keeping the defense rested.
The Prediction
This will be a tight game throughout with both teams playing inspired and motivated football. Both defenses will help the scoreboard with a score or a turnover to setup field position. Treon will play a much better game than his previous two but it will be Kelvin Taylor to lead an inspired Florida team to victory. Michigan’s inability to run the ball will ultimately do them in and force Michigan to convert 3rd down’s against one of the best 3rd down defenses in the country.
Florida 21 Michigan 16